Effect on Regionals, DAL/NWA Merger
 

Ok so here's my question

Assuming the Delta NW merger occurs this week as rumored, how will this affect the regionals that fly for each airline?

Delta has already been planning to cut 8 regionals back to 4. Now with the addition of NWA's regional partners, which regionals will suffer if any and which will we likely see continue to fly for Delta?

I'm supposed to begin a Shuttle America class soon and wondering if I will be affected in the immediate, near, or distant future...

I know that Shuttle also flys United stuff so I may have nothing to worry about. I guess maybe it depends on where they need pilots the most...the Delta or United side.

I just hope that my class doesn't cancel seeing as how I've already turned in my notice at my old job.

Thanks for any help or information you can offer!

How or why would a regional airline pilot know the answer to this?

I don't expect anyone including mainline guys to have an exact answer for this. Its very up in the air. I'm just wondering if anyone has an educated guess. Me personally, I'm new to the 121 side of things beginning with this job and haven't been following all the posts on all these boards regarding the issues. I'm just trying to understand the effects of the merger by asking you guys and reading the other posts on this board as well as others.

Of course theres the game of trying to distinguish for myself who seems to have an accurate knowledge of the subject and who is just throwing crap out there...haha

Anyways just wondering

It's anyone's guess what will happen, if it happens. There are way too many variables to account for and things change literally daily around here in the 121 world. If I may give you two simple rules to live by as you begin your airline adventure:

1. Never say never. Anything is possible in this business. Unexpected news and problems are a part of this business.
2. Don't believe anything you see or hear, especially from another pilot. Rumors are just that -- rumors. Until you see it actually happen or show up on property, don't count on anything. If you start listening to half of what you are sure to hear, you'll drive yourself nuts. Don't lose focus and fly standard! Good Luck!!

Just going on pure speculation... I think you would have to look at when each contract expires as well as the major players. Plus the fact that NW owns Mesaba and Delta owns Comair. Could there be a forced merger of regionals? Not sure if thats possible but its a thought, both fly the CRJ and with the cost of fuel the SF340 is a plus for XJ. Skywest and ASA have the largest combo of flying in the DL network and from what it seems DL is happy with their performance in the network. RAH has the presence in the Embraer in CVG and ATL, and Pinnacle is flying the CRJ900 out of ATL. On the NW side Pinnacle flies a ton flying the CRJs plus what seems interesting (someone posted a few weeks ago they have some Q400s on order). And of course there is always MESA...

Just seems with the cost of fuel, who knows NW and DL might consolidate XJ and Comair (just my opinion and guess) If will come down to who performs the best and is the most cost effective. Really just like my opinion it could go various ways and could change, plus contracts come into play.

But if delta wanted to cut its regionals from 8 to 4 before a merger, post merger it would add mesaba into that total....
My guess to a FINAL 4 of regionals in a NWA/Delta merger... would be
- Skywest/ASA
- Mesaba and Comair (who knows they might combine since "Delta" would own both)
- Pinnacle
- Republic

While eventually booting Mesa once the contract is up

Besides it would take prob 5 - 8 years before a pure consolidation would occur and things would be running efficiently... so those regionals listed might have different contracts, and bases of operations.

But thats just a guess... this is new territory under the current market and cost of oil and who knows the merger may never get approved

good points....I was wondering that too...If NWA and DAL merge would there contracts with the regionals change...for example if NWA eventually became Delta, is Delta still required to hold true to NWA's old regional contracts with pinnacle mesaba etc. or is there a clause that would cancel such contracts and only require delta to hold true to its pre-merger contracts.

Just another thing that I have no idea about in the 121 side of things.

thanks for the positive responses fellas

Who told you that? I only count 6 DCI carriers:
ASA/Skywest
Comair
Republic et al
Mesa
Pinnacle
ExpressJet

Who did I leave out?

In addition to that, since the Comair strike, Delta has shown they are interested in diversifying the DCI fleet and they've upheld that with the addition of Pinnacle and ExpressJet to the DCI family. If anything, I see Mesa on the outs (Delta has already reported they are terminating the contract), Pinnacle continuing to fly for both NWA and DAL, ASA/Skywest continuing to do what they do because the contracts are long-term and their performance doesn't suck. If CAL cuts more ExpressJet birds loose it's possible a few may end up in the Delta fleet replacing Mesa in the East or providing more feed out of LAX. As far as RAH, I guess the 135s are on their way out but Delta seems happy with the 170s...for now. If they are as thirsty vs. the CRJ-7/900 as some people claim, Delta may start to rethink that fleet or how they use them.

Just my opinion. But opinions are like bumholes...everyone has one and they usually stink:D

Someone posted a rumor on our union board stating the new "TA" the pilots of Delta agreed on has language in it that would bring scope back to 70 seats (i.e. Delta would be flying those aircraft). I don't have any facts to back it up, but isn't that what these boards are all about???:D

Until scope is written as a weight class it won't matter. Take a few coach seats out of a 900 and add some first class seats and WOLA 70 seats.

I hope you're right. It's about time a pilot group started taking back what is rightfully theirs.

Unless Delta owns your airplanes.........

I can't disagree, I just can't see an RJ being profitable with "mainline salaries" flying the plane around.............

You may be correct on the six...I just thought I read something about 8 the other day....and come to think of it I can't think of 8 either...maybe I was thinking of Skywest and ASA as seperate....anyways keep the guesses coming all...interesting to think about

The eight(a few months ago) were ASA, Comair, Skywest, Expressjet, Freedom, Pinnacle, Republic, and Big Sky. Big Sky is done so it is only 7 now.

ah yes....i forgot bout freedom

All the Delta connection and NWA airlink operating 70 or more seats will make out like bandits. Here's why folks, first order of business for the new combined management, personnel integration, route structuring, and fleet commonality....DC9's will go bye bye earlier than currently outline, after the re-allocation of the rest of assets and route structuring, the gaps will be filled by the above listed players....

Just my two cents.

According to top-brass here at SkyWest, a DAL/NWA merger would be fantastic for us...I can see it being good, but not fantastic...but then again, I'm just a Chicken-Little...

A merger is seldom ever good for anyone other than the top-brass.

For the merged top-brass, yes. For their contractors, however, the jury is still out...

Actually, Mesa doesn't do any Delta flying..just Freedom. But if you count Shuttle America and Chautauqua (since they do operate under 2 different certificates), then you have 8 DCI carriers:

Comair
Skywest
ASA
Chautauqua
Shuttle America
Pinnacle
Freedom
Expressjet

How so? The majors are all talking about reducing domestic flying via the regionals. They have already started cutting hours at the regional levels. If the rumors are true the MECs at the majors may be trying to lock scope finally. That would be good for the entire industry.

Just passin' along the good word man...Like I said - I can't see it being that good, but they'll always know more than me :D

Funny about the -9. We were told that if we merge, DAL would reduce the retirement of the -9s. Plus, the Delta CBA scope limits on 70/76 seats still is in force and would also apply to all Airlink aircraft. So the 200 total airframes would have to be met by al the regionals. Lastly, most route intergration would be done at the regional level, as that is where the overlap is. Do you really need flights from Dothan AL to both Memphis and Atlanta?

Here is what I know.... RAH/Shuttle has a contract for 16 E-175s that start delivery in about 60 days for Delta flying. Shuttle has seen NO decrease in Delta connection flying ...yet... at least not on the 170 platform. What the future beyond that holds I dont know. I just fly them.

We also know that mgmt has, on more than one occasion, reported the 50 seat Rj's are not making money with the high fuel prices. The only consistent thing I've ever seen out of airline mgmt is they like to make money. Anyone with 50 seaters as the majority of their fleet should be sweating bullets right now.

Anyone with 50 seaters as the majority of their fleet should be sweating bullets right now.[/quote]


While I totally agree with you, and I thought that us at 9E would stand to lose a great deal of flying someone thinks we are wrong...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...0080414?rpc=44

What regional airline DOESN'T have 50 seats as their majority?..Count republic as one entity....

Well....with the 135's and -200 that are slated to go away...and the 175's coming and on order.... we will be more than 50% 70 seat aircraft by this time next year. Even now its probably 55/45 percent or close to it.

In the case of NWA/DAL all of them execpt Republic... good point.

yeah. pinnacle is going no where, unless us pilots get the chance to strike. we are right now the only regional with brand spanken new contracts with both delta/nwa/continental. and i know some out there will say that the contracts aren't worth the paper they are written on. but these contracts are less than a year old, and were written while merger talks were beginning. plus i don't think uncle phil would be dumb enough to sign a contract that could be backed out of when we are paying for the 900's ourselves (if so i think the sec might have some jail time set up for him). same with those dang q400's. the 200 will continue to be used in several markets that dont need a mainline plane or even a 900. the 50 seater is only losing money on certain flights. not all. which is obvious since pinnacle has tons of money in the bank and we operate a mostly 200 fleet.

to be honest the people who have to be worried are the ones that are wholly owned by delta or northwest. they will be the first ones to be shed. now i am not saying they will close the doors but they will be sold. to whom and for how much i don't know. and what will happen to their flying, who knows. but delta has made it obvious they don't want to be in the regional owning business. they sold asa. there have been reports that they are looking for someone to buy comair. we all know mesaba and compass will be sold because thats what nwa does anyway. the sales will give the new company tons of cash on hand to take care of their business.

I keep hearing over and over from various sources that Mesaba will not last, and that there 900's will get transfered and the saabs will find there way to BGR for a long rest. Compass would be sold to Republic.
Who knows we could find out more this week.

If there's anyone out there willing to buy a regional airline at this point in time, please stand up.....

Mesaba... For the time being most our fleet is made up of Saabs.

i don't know about going away but they wont last at nwa that is for sure.


hahaha, that seems to be a problem huh. delta couldn't find anyone to buy comair a while back, and with the market the way it is now, they will probably have a real tough time finding someone now.

I think it's too late for DL to sell us, we make money for DL..plain and simple..they paid 1.8 billion for a well run airline...have set the table for the airline to mismanage itself into annoying inefficiency..but we still make money for em.

If they were going to get rid of CA, they would've done it whilst in chapter 11.

Just my opinion, it could still happen..but it's a waste of money/time in trying to find a buyer now.

What will happen to all the routes that the Saab flys then? Just get rid of them? Kind of hard to fly jets into some of those destinations. How much money does NWA make on the PAX/Mail service to and from some of those EAS cities.

yeah i don't think mesaba will go away. but they wont stay owned by new when the merger happens. you are right though. mesabas saab service is essential to some of the airports they fly into. so like i said i don't think mesaba is going away, but i dont think they will be owned by nwa post merger

Ya'll should start trading futures!

In theory since NWA owns Mesaba and Delta owns Comair, whats to stop them from merging operations thus comair could downgrade some of the 200 flights out east to Saabs and upgrade others in the -900...