50 seat RJ gones by 2013. Whats to come of this?
 

According to USAtoday, Regional air travel in 50 seater RJs are going away and could be completely gone by 2013. Whats the outlook for pilot jobs going to be? We'll be operating props again or just do away with servicing smaller cities all together; moreover, what can pilots expect in the near future as far as getting hired with regional carriers is concerned?

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...cutbacks_N.htm

VERY interesting article..also kind of spooky..

not to big a deal. instead of flying 200's we will all be flying 900's. 900's can go into the same places that the 200 can go so nothing will really change. the kicker will be how many seats they put on those 900's and 170's

Is there any aircraft in the drawing board (or in the market) from Bombardier or Embraer that can haul 90+ pax?

Bombardier is making the C-Series

http://bombardier.com/

Gracias... ;)

The CRJ-1000

Its already in production the launch customer is Brit air I believe. Just a stretch longer of the CRJ-900. It carries 100.

Bombardier.com

http://www.dancewithshadows.com/flig...er-crj1000.asp

http://www.pointniner.com/2008/04/ne...1000-pics.html
production pics

Any rumors of US carriers to place some orders on this aircraft? Should chip in its 2 cents eventually on bringing them costs down...

The E-195 can hold 122 pax. Available now. How far away is the 1000?

Mid to late 2009 I think I read...

French and Brits are getting it first I believe...

Do you think we will ever see the Sukhoi SuperJet in the US?

http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/sukhoi/

Do you think we'll see any of the majors cave on more scope clauses?

If not, what about if they are in bankruptcy again?

Wow...that sounds like an essay question.. sorry guys!

There is an undisclosed US operator that has placed an order for 16 CRJ 1000's

Unlikely. Both russia and china are developing RJ's, but their primary goal is to develop an ability to manufacturer modern airliners...they are both starting small with RJ's and hoping to move up later. Most customers appear domestic for both aircraft and there is no guarantee that either will achieve FAA certification, which is the gold standard for export aircraft in the first world.

The chinese airplane is actually optimized for specific routes in china.

Interesting. That's a pretty big amount of dollars being put out for airplanes...

I'm hoping that no one will voluntarily give up any further scope...I think even the dimmest guy at mainline now understands where that will lead.

BK is a wildcard of course, but even then there should be some room to negotiate with the judge, if not with the company.

The Japanese are also making a 70 and 90 seat RJ, and the technical specs look really good on that one...I'd be surprised if we don't see some of those in the US, and I wouldn't mind flying one myself.

You're right, it's not that big of deal..... The EMB190, EMB195, and the CRJ 900 is already on Delta's current contract and will be on our future joint contract as we continue with the merger with NWA. Any larger aircraft that may possible replace the DC9's will be flown by mainline pilots. Anything that is greater than 76 seats will be flown by mainline pilots. It's the new trend. Richard Anderson does not like how Delta has lost control of it's product by allowing subcontractors to do the job, as witnessed by the termination of Mesa's contract.

I along with many other pilots at Delta are constantly in touch with our union reps about this very issue. Ultimately, I hope that mainline Delta will have many good pilot seats for those of you at the regionals can move into when this financial storm subsides. I'd like to see an industry where professional airline pilots have a solid career and be able to take care of their families instead of constantly being "whipsawed" against one another.

USAir and Air Canada mainline pilots are flying the EMB190,s as well as Jetblues pilots. The energy prices are killing all of us, but this is going to be the Regional Jets "9/11".

I sympathize with many of you, as I spent nearly three years on furlough at Delta. All I can say is we all need to tighten our belts and get our financial houses in order. It's going to get ugly.

Respectfully,
Tomcat

There's no indication that the C-series or the E-190 will ever be operated at the regional level i the US.

The C-series is a possible replacement for NWA's DC-9s.

For whatever is worth, our good, flashy and shiny new Cessna 162 Skycatchers are being built in China... :D

All 50 seat RJ's WILL NOT be gone by 2013. That is a false statement.

I have agreed with Boyd on the RJ glut issue for years now. Yes, many 50 seat RJ's are going away. With oil at $135 and going higher every day, many of these 50 seat RJ's are going away. Probably 70% of the 50 seat RJ's we have today will be gone in the next 10 years. But the fact remains that there is still a market for 50 seat RJ's.

RJ's were designed to serve markets that could not handle larger aircraft. Airlines used these jets for many other roles that they were uneconomical in. High frequency flights between large airports was the biggest example of improper use. This is where you will see the biggest reduction of RJ use. Routes such as LAX-PHX, ATL-IAD, IAH-DFW, IAD-(JFK,LGA,EWR), BOS - (JFK,LGA) will lose 50 seat RJ service with oil this high.

Aside from high frequency/high density airport flying, RJ's basically serve smaller communities. I put these smaller airports into two categories. High yield markets and low yield markets. High yield markets are upscale areas, large amount of business travelers, large amount of international travelers, etc... These markets will stay. Smaller markets that don't provide any of the above mentioned will see reductions. The first type of reduction will be in the amount of hubs that serve that small airport. An airline like Delta with nearby hubs in ATL, CVG, and MEM will not fly airplanes from all three of these airports to a small community. These smaller communities will probably go to 1 or 2 hub cities per airline. Many small communities will lose RJ service altogether. Maybe some of them can be supported by 19-30 seat turboprop's, or will get an EAS service. But ultimately, the number of small communities served with air travel will go down because of the price of oil.

But regardless, 50 seat RJ's will not be completely gone in the next 5 years.


Larger aircraft are coming. Major airline scope clauses need to improve. In addition to the jet seating limit (50 at CAL, 70 at UAL/AMR, 76 at DAL/NWA, and 86 at US Air), things like maximum takeoff weight, and maximum number of 70/76 RJ's flown at a regional need to be restricted. I know AMR has a limit on 70 seaters, and DAL/NWA have a limit on 76 seaters. Don't forget to add turboprop restrictions into scope clauses. The last thing we need is a 100 seat efficient turbo prop to show up at a regional. If ever there was a time to improve scope in major airline contracts, it is now. These new aircraft need to be mainline.

Many of us hope you are right...... but one thing is sure in this business...there are no absolutes.

I agree with IAH. Regional jets were designed to serve small markets, and then got pressed into service on mainline routes.

We will see 50-seaters leaving mainline routes in droves.

As for the small markets, ticket prices will go up dramatically. This will scare away some pax, reducing frequency. If a market cannot support 45 pax per day at the new prices, then service will likely get dropped. The good news is that for many small towns, the only alternatives are to stay home or drive...if you drive, you have to put gas in the car :eek:

Maybe Now Is A Good Time To Stop Accepting Low Pay On The 70+ Seat Jets..................

... but they are soooo shiny! :D

The only way for a 50-seater to die is if someone invents a 70-seater that burns the same gas or less. Otherwise as costs rise, passenger traffic will drop, causing larger airplanes to go away.

People have no sense with the economics of this. Some how a larger airplane that BURNS MORE GAS per hour is better on a route that has to charge more expensive tickets and less people can fly on it. Make sense?

I wouldn't say it has to do with how much more gas an aircraft burns, per se, but rather what is the overall cost per seat mile (CASM) of that particular aircraft. While, yes, an MD-80 would burn more gas on, say, JFK-BOS than a CRJ, they also carry 2-3 times as many people, and the extra fuel burn can be mitigated by extra pax/cargo revenue, resulting in a lower CASM for the MD-80 vs the CRJ.

Fuel is one variable in the formula. Additional variables are lease rates, crew costs, mx costs, type of inflight service, just to name a few.

The 70 seater is more versatile. A 50 seater probably needs 45+ pax to break even, so it's only useful in a situation where you have 45-50 pax.

The 70 is slightly more costly to operate (about 12%) but carries 40% more pax. It is therefore useful for about 55-70 pax...a little more wiggle-room there.

i agree with most of what you say and i hope a lot of it is true. since we already have 76 planes on the regional tickets they are going to stay there. hopefully that is as high as the seats will go. and hopefully the dc9 replacement will be flown by main line pilots.

as far as things getting ugly you might be semi right. on the large scale i don't see things changing to much. we have already seen a few regionals go under, and there might be a few more on the way out. but the flying will still be there. pinnacle has 124 50 seat rj's, and will have 16 900's by the end of the year. barring some other crazy things that would have to happen that is the least amount of 50 seaters we can have. if nwa wants to take more they have to exchange them for a 900. which i see them doing once the merger is done.

no one here at pinnacle thinks its a coincedence anderson is giving us their regional flying. when he was ceo of nwa that is when we got the rj contract. now he moves over to delta and we have a delta contract. uncle phil and anderson must be buddies or have dirt on eachother.

my hope is that mainlines continue to grow so i will have somewhere to go in the future.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...mpaign_id=twxa

Does anybody see this to be more true than expanding RJs to 75+ seaters?

The time for that has come and past a long time ago young man. Low pay for 19 seat turbo props was only the beginning. There is no reason a Pilot should not be making a minimum of $50,000 a year regardless of aircraft size. Net jets pays over $60K for first year fo's and half of those airplanes don't break 20,000 lbs.

But I ask you this my friend. From an industry of people who are about as united as oil and water what are we to do. I find more and more people who are all for one, one for themselves. There is nothing unified about any pilot group anymore. We are a group of people who for the most part spend 16-24 hours a week locked in a box with only one other person and somehow we are to be able to bring a group of 1000-2000-5000+ pilots to the same level of thinking. WHAT DO WE DO?

Mesa is going to be one of the first to be faced with the concession question. They gave up a lot last time around due to scope and freedom, what will they give up this time. Until a group of pilots walks out the door and an airline shuts down because of it management will NEVER take us seriously. PS: don't hold your breathe to see the above scenario play out, there are too many senior pilots on the list to get a walk vote. Closest thing that I can remember was COMAIR and look where they are today, great contract, but ask them about that MCO base among other things. Not picking, but you folks stood up for yourselves.

hey i just heard that all 50 seat jets got parked because they are the "devil" of regional airlines. gosh darn we can't say we didn't see this coming... oh well i guess the hardest part about this news is for everybody to find something else to whine about... :confused:

200 passenger regional jets?
 

What's next, 200 passenger RJ's?

Herc will probably remember this, but in the late 1980's, the American Airlines pilots debated whether the Eagle pilots were worthy enough of being represented by the APA. There was even talk about the Eagle pilots on the AA seniority list, but they were not wanted by the AA pilots. Don't they wish that they were all together now, instead of being whipsawed against each other.

This set a precedent that held our entire industry back......... And it is proof that we must all stand together, more now than ever.

Until we collectively worry more about raising the pay of the lowest-paid RJ pilot than we do about raising the pay of the Senior B777 pilots, we as pilots collectively don't stand a chance...

The business reason for the RJ is all about pay.. And pay increases for RJ pilots needs to be our primary concern of all pilots. If not, we will soon see the 200 passenger RJ in our lifetimes.

In Unity,

B727DRVR:(

No, thats not what the article said.

Airlines are growing, just not necessarily in the USA. I'm going to the job fair in ATL at the end of this month, which I believe will be largely international carriers.

I agree that 76 planes will stay with contract airlines, for the very reason they got there in the first place; it's cheaper.

That will put pressure on the number crunchers for a DC-9 replacement. The lure of contracting an airline to fly 100 seats for cheap compared to what they have to pay their own crews (and actually buy / lease and maintain new planes) won't go away.

Dead on. :cool:

I wonder why we never hear from the major / legacy pilot groups clamoring to do ALL their company flying ?

If company XXX has a need for a 19 / 30 / 50 / 70 / 76 seat aircraft on any route, why doesn't that pilot group demand that it be done by company pilots in company planes ?

Why is there a floating (and arbitrary) line of how many seats to be flown by company pilots ?

Don't forget that there will be jobs flying turboprops. They are more effecient than the RJ's.

I'm not asking whether I read it wrong, I just wanna know if jobs are going away or still going to be there when planes go away. Common sense thinks that there won't be any recruitment going on for awhile once RJs start to go away.

727drvr is right.... I was a card carrying member of APA Eagle.... unity... what a joke that was....

Scope caved at AA and every other carrier because the pilots looked down their collective noses at "comuters"...regionals...whatever you want to call it... they didnt want to fly small jets or BIG turboprops....they have "evolved" past aircraft that size .... and wanted more to fly them than the company would or could pay... hell AA pilots hated the F100 because they felt it was too small..and the pay as crap..... CA on the F100's made about 120000 a year in early 90's dollars... imagine that......and it wasnt enough.

round and round it goes and where it stops ....nobody knows.....