What to expect at AE in the monthes to come?
 

I'm just starting sims at AE and we're obviously all thinking the same thing...what's gonna happen tomorrow? And the day after that? And after that? The fervor of furloughs and lay offs has somewhat subsided as we all have adjusted to the news but we are all on edge.

What I am beginning to wonder is if furloughs are less likely than we originally thought? (Hopeful thinking) From what I have heard, attrition was exactly 50 pilots a month. Of course that was when other carriers were hiring actively. I have also heard that attrition is rising now after the recent news breaks. I am hoping that attrition and our FO shortage, which was 200-250 according to mgmt about 3 weeks ago, will hopefully keep us all on board. Of course if they park 40 RJ's it is going to be a really really interesting day.

It should be interesting to see if there is to be furloughs, how many and when will it start.

Well the airline staffs something like 10 pilots per aircraft. With all the Saabs being retired and 35-40 jets being parked, that is around 650 pilot spots. Taking nothing else in to consideration, that is about the maximum that you could see furloughed. It won't be close to that number, but potentially in the several hundreds. Even with the original FO shortage that still leads to 400-450 pilots to many. I had been at Eagle a year and left in May. Best of luck to all that are still there.

I think the numbers for attrition have dropped significantly. We were losing about 50-60/month in the peaks of hiring the past few years, but now all other carriers have stopped hiring, regionals and majors both. As said before 650 would probably be the absolute most furloughs. I have heard we are anywhere from 100-300 FOs short. Some smaller amounts of attrition will continue, so I personally expect 100-150 furloughs. If I were in training now I would just continue studying and focusing on that. Just remember nothing has been officially announced yet, and with AMR you cant be sure until it something actually happens.

If American furloughs again will there be back flow into Eagle... that could add to the numbers significantly.

No, Letter 3 has expired.

Letter 3 still has it's own issues that are going on here at Eagle. With displacements likely many wonder if the flowbacks will be displaced in seniority order with the rest of the pilots or if the get to keep their "super seniority". Time will tell how it all plays out with the displacements and furloughs.

there won't be flowbacks. Letter 3 expired. And Eagle definitely does not staff 10 crews per aircraft.

The actual number is 4.5 crews per aircraft. A total of nine pilots per aircraft....

he said ,,"somthing like 10 pilots per aircraft" not 10 crews.

Unfortunately nobody really knows what is going to happen at this moment. I spoke with a Union rep today that said they will be meeting with management in the next few weeks to see what can be done to save jobs and protect us from furlough...he did say however that furlough is a real possibility. So its hard to know exactly what is going to happen to us newer hires.

I would suggest you just keep your nose to the grindstone and keep going with training. Get through it, get your SIC certificate, get through your IOE and see what happens.

If we are furloughed we can at least get unemployment pay for a few months while we look for new jobs.

It will look much better to a future employer to see that you stuck it out until the bitter end rather than quitting now. I know its a less than ideal situation - and believe me I'm right there with you in all this - but nothing is going to predict the future for us. Just keep going until the official word comes out.