I don't understand what you're trying to say. You know that the CRJs were a complete success right? Not only did they let BB get his foot in the door with CAL he managed to negotiate them for pennies on the dollar on their lease. RAH has made money hand over fist on those CRJs. RAH doesn't own those aircraft and only wanted them till they could get the 145s transitioned over.

So to answer your question.. Yes, exactly like the CRJ deal hopefully.

 

Expect Frontier get rid of the A318s and turn over flying to RAH for EMB190s.
A318 is a very expensive aircraft CASM wise. On the other hand EMB190s are perfect for those routes.
RAH can provide EB170, EMB190 and Q400 flying for Frontier. Southwest cannot compete with this metal.
Lynx is going to be the next Shuttle America.

 

Are you serious?

Southwest can't compete with E-Jets and Q400s?

 

I am serious.
WN cannot compete with EMB190/170 series operated by RAH and Q400.
On markets where there is just enough RASM the 190 will have a better CASM.
You can also check the yields in DEN for all 3 airlines. WN has in most markets lowest yields. I did my research, i am not BSing about it..

 

Granted SWA is one of the best when it comes to operating cost even they are wondering where the money will come from in the near future.

 

It all the depends on perspective:

First 6 months of the operation, the CRJ's generated an average of $40,000 in denied boardings per month per station. After six months that number was slashed to $20,000 average per station per month.....I don't believe CAL considered them a success, and that's part of the reason why the leases were not renewed. 20+ 50 seat RJ's flying around, and CAL pilots not giving up on scope....hardly a great outcome!

Back to the subject at hand, as much as it hurts me to say it (because I do like Frontier and their product) Southwest is going to kill them, in the same fashion that they nearly destroyed Airways (pre-merger) in the Northeast. The advantage US had was multiple hubs to compensate for the damage in some of the others. Frontier does not have that luxury. Once again, all the best to those guys.

 

Gotta tell ya, the Arm Chair CEO's are truly an interesting group. (Don't take offense - I count myself among them)

BB recognizes that as a Regional he is going to make his money a few years at a time with an overall but "ever-slightly-adjusted" long term strategy. Consider the possibilites -- BB guarantees to loan $25M. He settles the $260M claim for actual lost income and expenses -- lets say $10M. Lynx ends up the fourth leg of Republic, which BB gets for pennies on the dollar. (Worst Case) Republic flies the Frontier routes for 3 to 5 years making money all along the way and bang Frontier does not make it. BB ends up with the gates to either market to another code share or sell to SW. Almost no matter how you think this plays out -- BB and Republic win. All for an up-front expense of maybe $15M. One plane costs him more than that.

FYI - SW does not even want most of the routes Frontier has. Secondly, Southwest absolutely wants to keep Frontier alive, but weak. Denver is a great market and the last thing SW would want is a threat from a strong competitor entering upon Frontier's exit. (Let's see -- who could help make that happen). SW is not going to kill them, they will probably supply the defibrilator to keep them alive.

The good Reverend took some short term pain for long term gain by agreeing to gracefully bow out last April. Count on it, he has a plan and is going profit big from this deal.

 

The CRJ's leases were NEVER intended to be renewed. At least get the facts straight.

 

Yup, they were a short term fix after XJT decided to keep the 69 airplanes. With 145s being freed up, they are transitioning. Also on the 170 side, we do have two company colored aircraft that can switch between RW and S5.

 

you must be on drugs. EMB 170/190 have worse economics then the CRJ700/900's and have higher CASM then Frontiers Airbus products. Why do you think the EMB's were the first to go? B6 ended a lot of their options on the 190's and took delivery on only 36 of an initial deal of 50. Their Airbuses are more economical. Between Q400's and Airbus products and Southwest limiting their markets i highly doubt REP will ever see more flying under that banner then you did a year ago. Lets say Frontier turns around and is the position to add a new/or previous aircraft type into the mix... do you think they would rather be like B6 and fly their 190's and get their pilots off furlough or give it to a regional?

The CRJ's for CAL were a success?!?!? you have got to be kidding. You cost CAL millions in missed connections, weight restriction issues, hotel/food vouchers, you still have more mx cancellations on 40 some odd airplanes then XJT does on 205, you refused to get ACARS when CAL asked to improve your performance, and have blamed your cluster of an operation on everyone but your own self to CAL (hardstands, gate agents dont like you, ground crews giving mainline/xjt priority...) You may have made a little money but you did not impress anyone and if thats what you meant by getting your foot in the door... god help us.