Airline Pilot Central Forums - 2012 Boom in Hiring

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Superpilot92 (Post 645304)

heres the answer, for those that are skeptical and chicken Little's-stay where you are, dont make the move, and enjoy the constant undercutting and potential loss of flying contracts.

For those willing to take the risk, do it and do it as soon as you can because the potential upside on the majors side of the fence far out weighs any potential at the regionals. The 50 seat market is drying up and scope is becoming more and more of an issue at the majors, (dont expect much more scope relief). Anyone who gets on at a major carrier early when things turn around has the Potential for being at the top of that major airlines pilot list for the majority of their career. its always going to be a risk but to be honest its a HUGE risk to stay at a regional also.

for those that have quit flying, please stop trying to justify your choices by coming on here and stomping on those pilots that are sticking with it.

Couldn’t agree more and that's why I'm commuting for PIC. Once the doors open I plan on being first in line even if I have to pitch a tent outside of DAL’s “Pilot Recruitment” offices 2 years prior.:rolleyes: I've got solid contacts and many options.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetJock16 (Post 645436)

Thats what i did, commuted for the PIC time, not the Tent ;) I think you're doing the right thing and good luck. As long as you keep an eye on the big picture and not just the "right now" mentality you'll be sitting pretty imho. Keep letting the others think the regionals are "where its at":rolleyes: because that means less competition for those that can see past their noses ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetJock16 (Post 645436)

Agreed. Sounds very similar to me, only my tent will be up at one of the "Big Two" box carriers. This turned out to be an interesting thread, getting better as it went along. Nice to see that some people have an outlook to the future, not just the now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetJock16 (Post 645436)

I commend you for your plan, but don't put all your eggs in one basket. I know some who were as well connected as you can be and didn't survive the interview. Have a backup plan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmoothOnTop (Post 517273)

Please spend the next 4 years sweetening up your resume`.

Economic recovery + Major Airline Pilot Retirements = Your Dream Job

The b&tching about every other regionals' contract, the entitlement generation, hair gel, i-pods and backpacks won't matter then...

Keep dreaming and drinking the cool aid boys!! Even if the economy comes back and every airline is hiring 300+ pilots a month and making millions of $$$, do you really think for one second they will increase pay or quality of life? NOOO, they wont. They got you by the ball in what you call a "CBA" and you can thank your mighty Unions for that. ;)

And if you want to believe in the "attrition" theory, well dont waste your time. If push comes to shove, they will just start a "Cadet" program and do away with attrition problems. After all its a lot cheaper for them to pay from someone's training at cost then to increase pay and QOL.

Ya they may start hiring... but so will McDonnell's. That doesn't mean they will treat you any better or pay you anymore. Why? Because they don't have to! Once again, thanks to the kinds of ALPA.

Im hoping on this one!!! I will get out of military pilot training in mid 2011....Maybe ill be recalled around then..................not counting on it though.... I dont think Comair will be an airline in 2012.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 20sx (Post 645259)

This an old retirement list. Add five years to it and pretty much forget about 2007 since all but 3 weeks of that year there were retirements.
Retirements during 2013 brings back most of the furloughs. 2014 from then on is a hiring bonanza!

Pilot retirements
Year AA UAL DAL CAL
2007 281 263 30 322
2008 402 234 60 246
2009 405 231 70 218
2010 363 201 91 210
2011 318 167 132 220
2012 312 228 159 217
2013 388 245 220 194
2014 478 237 268 210
2015 571 270 335 167
2016 628 331 475 190
2017 683 307 558 178
4829 2714 2398 2372

Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA
2007 271 126 89 129 200
2008 223 151 61 120 239
2009 279 131 60 95 166
2010 246 162 45 122 188
2011 290 153 52 128 187
2012 332 189 62 102 207
2013 334 185 65 X 207
2014 366 156 79 X 230
2015 358 183 98 X 278
2016 360 211 96 X 260
2017 321 213 97 X 295
3380 1860 804 2457

TOTALS BY YEAR
2007 1711 December 13,2007 age 65 went into affect.
2008 (2013) 1736
2009 (2014) 1655
2010 (2015) 1628
2011 (2016) 1647
2012 (2017) 1808
2013 (2018) 1838
2014 (2019) 2024
2015 (2020) 2260
2016 (2021) 2551
2017 (2022) 2652 Total by end of 2017 (2022) 19,799

TOTALS BY AIRLINE (over 10ish years)
AA 4829
UAL 2714
DAL 2398
CAL 2372
NWA 2457
US AIR 3380
SWA 696 (this is only for 5 years, probably about 1300 over 10 years)
FEDEX 1860
UPS 804

Number of pilots at regionals (off a little because of furloughed, from pilot central)
American eagle 2,725
ASA 1,710
Comair 1,476
Express Jet 2,725
Mesa 1,446
Republic 2,069
Skywest 2,809
Air Wisconsin 716
Colgan 438
Commutair 130
Compass 335
Gojets 240
Great Lakes 335
Gulf Stream 260
Horizon 721
Lynx 104
Mesaba 1,169
Piedmont 477
Pinnacle 1,303
PSA 538
TSA 446
Total 22,172

Furlough at major
United 874, eventually 1500
Alaska 60
American 1,979
Continental 147
USAir 227
Total 3,287, 1,934 without American

Impressive numbers. I see a few small problems with it.

All this assumes each company is still operating in 2014 (or later), this assumes each company did not merge to another company. (why is that important?) This assumes each company has at least the same # of airframes or more.

this assumes pure attrition and nothing else. Ideally you want attrition coupled with growth, that is where the bang for the buck is. The wild card in this is also with attrition from the big boys, will that back fill come from growth on the regionals (who are cheaper)?

I do think those dream jobs will open up, I just am not so sure to the tune 2000 a year. We are 5 years away, a lot can happen between now and then. Sill hopeful, but guarded since the downturn.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diver Driver (Post 645307)

Be careful... If too many folks are your carrier do that, it becomes 'top heavy' on the pay scale. Look at Comair, Delta is stripping us down... cost is a primary factor among other things.

You're absolutely right. I've thought about the issue of 'lifers' hanging making a career here and I'll just have to keep my eyes open. I'm currently 45 now, so all I need to get (at the most) is my 20 yrs. I'm hoping to be retired earlier, or at least financially prepared for an early separation from the airlines if it comes to that. Thankyou for pointing that out though because it really is a huge factor in how these guys (regionals) remain competitive. Keeping labor costs down is key and being a lifer doesn't contribute to the "business model." At some point I'm sure I'll be considered a liability and who knows.., maybe even WE will be outsourced by..., third world pilots.., or technology. Dare I start a discussion on scope protection at the regional level LOL!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beechlover (Post 645681)

Taking a half-step out of the regionals to a national carrier or LCC might be a good idea if you plan on going for 20 years or so. JetBlue, Virgin America, Air Tran, etc, might all be good ideas for a little bit more security. At least these carriers dictate their own schedules and are not at the mercy of their contract with the major they fly for like most regionals are.

I'm hoping for a job with a major eventually, but at 24, I have nothin' but time. Those with 20 years or so left might enjoy the bump in pay and ability to see the CA seat at a national/LCC before 65.

Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.

Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.

After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.