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Originally Posted by Diver Driver
(Post 645237)
I believe that there will never be a pilot shortage. I agree with a poster above that there were a lack of willing applicants in 2007 to work for such low wages. We will only see a shortage if ATP minimums are required for part 121 work.
I think we will see a lot of the majors absorb some of those retirement numbers in the future and with most having a thousand or more pilots on the street, it will be a long time before the majors will need to hire off the street. When they do, regional pilots will be competing with military guys and others from part 135 and other defunct 121 carriers. The days of getting on with a regional and upgrading in 2-3 years are over. We need to secure contracts with decent work rules and livable pay for FO's because in some cases it will be 5-10 years or more to upgrade. Regionals are becoming career destinations for some of us whether we like or not. The opportunities for advancement are no longer there. I may sound like a pessimist, and maybe I am bitter to some degree, but this is real and we should not get our hopes up over some major airline retirement numbers without looking at the big picture. I know for most that just look at right now its tough to be optimistic but you have to see the Forrest through the trees my friend ;) |
2017
I added up the numbers of all the retirements given from each airline in 2017 and I came up with only 1110 possible new hires that year. Assuming the majors don't shrink by then it still is not a very optimistic number.
Every year there are between 8500 and 10,000 new commercial pilots minted in the country. Over the last decade we have lost more major airline jobs then we have gained. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough from 9-11. Every year that goes by there is a growing backlog of 8500 to 10,000 dreams in suspended animation. This all translates into a statistical long shot. Tens of thousands and possibly more than one hundred thousand pilots hoping to be one of the 1000 or so pilots to get hired each year during the "boom". Everyone thinks that they will be one of the lucky 1000. Retired military pilots alone might be enough to fill the vacancies. Skyhigh |
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
(Post 645247)
I added up the numbers of all the retirements given from each airline in 2017 and I came up with only 1110 possible new hires that year. Assuming the majors don't shrink by then it still is not a very optimistic number.
Every year there are between 8500 and 10,000 new commercial pilots minted in the country. Over the last decade we have lost more major airline jobs then we have gained. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough from 9-11. Every year that goes by there is a growing backlog of 8500 to 10,000 dreams in suspended animation. This all translates into a statistical long shot. Tens of thousands and possibly hundreds of thousands of pilots hoping to be one of the 1000 or so pilots to get hired each year during the "boom". Everyone thinks that they will be one of the lucky 1000. Retired military pilots alone might be enough to fill the vacancies. Skyhigh The airlines will grow at some point, they've been cut so much that it leaves alot of room to grow. Combine that with expected aircraft travel increasing and expected to almost double in the coming years, the flying will come back and when it does, those with the foresight to get on at the front will be sitting nicely. Alot of pilots have been beaten up in the past few years and forced this idea that it will only get worse but the potential is there for those that take the emotion out of it and look at the opportunities that will be available. Risk vs Reward fellas, If your going when everyone else is doing the same you've already missed the boat. The key is to catch it before everyone else ;) Good luck to all |
This an old retirement list. Add five years to it and pretty much forget about 2007 since all but 3 weeks of that year there were retirements.
Retirements during 2013 brings back most of the furloughs. 2014 from then on is a hiring bonanza! Pilot retirements Year AA UAL DAL CAL 2007 281 263 30 322 2008 402 234 60 246 2009 405 231 70 218 2010 363 201 91 210 2011 318 167 132 220 2012 312 228 159 217 2013 388 245 220 194 2014 478 237 268 210 2015 571 270 335 167 2016 628 331 475 190 2017 683 307 558 178 4829 2714 2398 2372 Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA 2007 271 126 89 129 200 2008 223 151 61 120 239 2009 279 131 60 95 166 2010 246 162 45 122 188 2011 290 153 52 128 187 2012 332 189 62 102 207 2013 334 185 65 X 207 2014 366 156 79 X 230 2015 358 183 98 X 278 2016 360 211 96 X 260 2017 321 213 97 X 295 3380 1860 804 2457 TOTALS BY YEAR 2007 1711 December 13,2007 age 65 went into affect. 2008 (2013) 1736 2009 (2014) 1655 2010 (2015) 1628 2011 (2016) 1647 2012 (2017) 1808 2013 (2018) 1838 2014 (2019) 2024 2015 (2020) 2260 2016 (2021) 2551 2017 (2022) 2652 Total by end of 2017 (2022) 19,799 TOTALS BY AIRLINE (over 10ish years) AA 4829 UAL 2714 DAL 2398 CAL 2372 NWA 2457 US AIR 3380 SWA 696 (this is only for 5 years, probably about 1300 over 10 years) FEDEX 1860 UPS 804 Number of pilots at regionals (off a little because of furloughed, from pilot central) American eagle 2,725 ASA 1,710 Comair 1,476 Express Jet 2,725 Mesa 1,446 Republic 2,069 Skywest 2,809 Air Wisconsin 716 Colgan 438 Commutair 130 Compass 335 Gojets 240 Great Lakes 335 Gulf Stream 260 Horizon 721 Lynx 104 Mesaba 1,169 Piedmont 477 Pinnacle 1,303 PSA 538 TSA 446 Total 22,172 Furlough at major United 874, eventually 1500 Alaska 60 American 1,979 Continental 147 USAir 227 Total 3,287, 1,934 without American |
Best projections
Using the best projections and most optimistic view I still don't think future hiring can be considered a "boom" or "bonanza". One to two thousand new hires a year after a decade of furloughs and setbacks hardly makes a dent in the growing pile of unemployed or underemployed pilots that are out there.
The FAA only keeps track of pilots that still have a medical. There are easily tens of thousands of highly experienced pilots who are driving a trash truck right now who are of working age and are waiting for salvation. Lets all just hope that there isn't a big oil crisis out there waiting to give us the knock out blow. Skyhigh |
I don't know how you would find these numbers but there are lots of pilot on cola's that will need to find a slot before the major's hire.
I don't think the majors will be hiring all that much, even with retirements. One or more airlines will go bankrupt during this period. I don't know which ones, but it is coming. Throw in more scope relief, most likely in bankruptcy, and those are major jobs that will disappear forever. |
I think the big wrench in this whole argument is that the US airline network will not stay at or above its current capacity. This whole system has been set up over the last 10+ years towards the casual traveler market. However, that is unsustainable as the casual traveler is not going to be willing to pay what it takes to make the business profitable. Meanwhile, the high end traveler has moved to business jets.
The airlines will have to shrink to the point where they can make money on what few planes are left flying. The question is what will that percentage of our current capacity be? 20%? 50%? Sure lots of airline guys are ancient and if the airlines stay their current size there will be huge amounts of hiring. But what if this whole thing goes the way AA did after the TWA merger? If the airlines shrink down 50% no matter how young we all are it will be near impossible to see that golden major job in any reasonable amount of time. Maybe in 20 years it will improve but how many of you are willing to sit on reserve or furloughed from your regional just for the chance that far down the road? |
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
(Post 645265)
Using the best projections and most optimistic view I still don't think future hiring can be considered a "boom" or "bonanza". One to two thousand new hires a year after a decade of furloughs and setbacks hardly makes a dent in the growing pile of unemployed or underemployed pilots that are out there.
The FAA only keeps track of pilots that still have a medical. There are easily tens of thousands of highly experienced pilots who are driving a trash truck right now who are of working age and are waiting for salvation. Lets all just hope that there isn't a big oil crisis out there waiting to give us the knock out blow. Skyhigh What would Jimmy Buffett do?? And now, time for some positivity.... YouTube - Alan Jackson;Jimmy Buffett - It's Five O' Clock Somewhere |
No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!
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Originally Posted by HIREME
(Post 645133)
You mean a third....that should really help our dollar out. Pretty soon we'll be back to the good ole days, when bartering is our chief economic tool.
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