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Originally Posted by YAKflyer
(Post 645621)
I commend you for your plan, but don't put all your eggs in one basket. I know some who were as well connected as you can be and didn't survive the interview. Have a backup plan.
As for DAL, they’re just #1 on my list and if they don’t hire me I‘ll move on to #2. |
Oh, I picked up the retirement numbers a couple of years ago, I think. I add to it whenever I see new numbers. I actually have retirements that go 25 years or so for American (wow!) and old Delta. If American gets their act together, they are the place to be in the future.
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Originally Posted by 20sx
(Post 645700)
Oh, I picked up the retirement numbers a couple of years ago, I think. I add to it whenever I see new numbers. I actually have retirements that go 25 years or so for American (wow!) and old Delta. If American gets their act together, they are the place to be in the future.
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Originally Posted by 20sx
(Post 645697)
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level. After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement. |
Originally Posted by Superpilot92
(Post 645709)
you sir can see the forest through the trees :D
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Originally Posted by 20sx
(Post 645697)
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level. After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement. Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone? this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy. |
Originally Posted by macflyer
(Post 645631)
And if you want to believe in the "attrition" theory, well dont waste your time. If push comes to shove, they will just start a "Cadet" program and do away with attrition problems. After all its a lot cheaper for them to pay from someone's training at cost then to increase pay and QOL.
We have never experienced a true pilot shortage or we may have seen a cadet program. I think that they would be weary of one simply for liability reasons. If anything happens and the FO has 300 hours and is sitting right seat in a 757, not going to sit well. |
Originally Posted by dondk
(Post 645722)
I agree with some of your points. I am not sure that every regional pilot will have that opportunity at a major of choice. Mergers don't help, nor do companies going belly up or gasp getting absorbed by a regional (okay, national). 5 years is long enough for at least a few more of these events to happen.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone? this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy. |
Originally Posted by kersplatt
(Post 645741)
We have never experienced a true pilot shortage or we may have seen a cadet program. I think that they would be weary of one simply for liability reasons. If anything happens and the FO has 300 hours and is sitting right seat in a 757, not going to sit well.
if/when this does turn around, I see the 90's coming back. That is where a 4 year degree was required and a Masters was preferred. Add some serious TT and PIC as well to even be near competitive. I don't see these companies opening up the flood gates and letting every ipod, backpack totting fool in. Competition will be stiff initially as there will be more applicants that jobs. Thus, a cadet program could be the preferred way. There is a lot to be said to start the training from the way THEY want it versus retraining everyone. Either way, if/when it happens, it is surely going to be interesting. |
Originally Posted by dondk
(Post 645755)
I recall vividly in the 80's a ad in a NY newspaper looking for pilots with a commercial license. The company was Eastern Airlines. In the NY area, recruiters actually came out to the local airports looking for people. I recall other "major" airlines at the time having similar ad's in the help wanted sections, albeit Eastern's was the lowest I ever saw.
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