Air cargo will grow at a rate of around 6% per year. The number of freighters in service worldwide will double by 2027!

Al

 

While I understand the message you're trying to put out, it's too bad that's one of the main problems with our industry: Thousands of guys willing to take the other's spot. (not pointing fingers at you)

 

Well, thats not the problem with our industry, thats the problem with the economy right now. The problem with our industry is guys willing to take the other's spot for less.

Now, if I would have said that I'd be more than willing to tell his employer that i'd do it for less money, then i'd be the problem.

 

Not quite. It's the demand for such low paying jobs that's the problem, even if no one is undercutting the other's 20K job. If there's still demand for a 20K job (i.e. you willing to take the other guy's 20K job), there will never be progress. I think it's pretty simple. Even when the economy was going well, you would still hear comments from guys not in the airlines yet telling other airline guys complaining about being on reserve too long or any other sort of complain, "I'd readily trade spots with you."

 

The stock market inecies are all leading indicators of where the economy is headed. They have since turned back around and usually paint an economic future about six months ahead of unemployment.



Unemployment will continue to rise as consumer spending has still yet to completely turn around. Once unemployment numbers flatten out you'll see consumer confidence increase and finally consumer spending will increase.



Once all these take place companies will begin to spend more money and we'll get our ever important business travelers back.



Until then, its going to get a little worse before it gets better as we finish bottoming out.

Currently working at a flight school, the number of american students we have is maybe 5% of our total students. The pilot shortage is coming, hang on the next 7 years are going to be a pretty wild ride. Regionals are not going to be able to find qualified individuals for their right seats. As is the case with many of my students coming from undeveloped and developing countries, the airline and or the government pays their way to fly and the become one of those dreaded 200 hour wonder kids.

 

I'm no financial wizard but, you're incorrect. The stock market is too reactionary to be an indicator of what is ahead. It is more of an indicator of what has happened. The bond market is a much better indicator of what is ahead.

 

Might this mean, more jobs in the majors and less in the regionals as the regionals will not have the pilots to hire?

 

Majors don't have to hire regional captains. 250 hour comm license will do, and just let the regionals stagnate. Voila, regional hiring problem solved.

 

Most regional hiring will resume early summer 2010. As for major hiring, it's still too early to tell. For now it appears that regional pilot jobs will increase in the next 12-18 months while major pilot jobs will decrease.

With that said, many majors will probably not hire until after 2010, even with current retirement numbers. The next big boom of major airline retirements begins around 2013 through 2020. While we all hope to see a fair amount of major hiring then, many of the major jobs could be outsourced to regional flying, which is where we are heading fast. You can point the finger at anyone you want for this.

 

This might be your wet dream but it ain't gonna happen.
Majors hire future Captains which means they want someone who has already proven they can do that job. Hence the normal PIC mins. UAL has already proven how bad an idea it is to hire min hour pilots when they got forced into it by lawsuits back in the '80s.