Some numbers...
 

As an old business analyst I occasionally take a look at the number of pilots available vs the number employed. The pilots included in the following numbers are those in the FAA pilot database that are US citizens, hold an ATP with active first class medical in 2009 and 2010, or hold a CMEL with a first class medical in 2009 and 2010.

In January of 2008 there were 104,100 pilots in the FAA database that fit that group. Today there are 94,300, a drop of almost 10,000 pilots. (There are in addition 5470 ATPs or CMELs that have first class medicals that expired in 2008 and have not been renewed)

In January 2008, using data from APC and AirInc, there were 93800 active pilots (not furloughed) employed by major and regional, fractional, and cargo carriers. That equates to an employment rate of 90%. If you factor in a conservative estimate of 5% of the Jan 2008 total pilot group being ineligible for a pilot position for either new medical or background issues, the employment rate would have been 95%.

Today using data from APC, there are 87400 active pilots for an employment rate of 92%. If you factor in those who have let their first class medical lapse (the 5470 pilots with medical dates in 2008), but are otherwise eligible, the employment rate currently would be 87%. Reducing the pilot pool by the same 5% of expected ineligibles, the current employment rate would be 92%.

Based on these numbers and assumptions, there are about 7000 pilots available who hold the right certificates, active or very recent medical, and are not ineligible for other reasons (poor employment history, back-ground check problems, retired, ect.) currently without a major, regional, cargo, or factional job. This number is slightly less than the number in Jan 2008. Many of these pilots may be employed in part 91 operations, are overseas (employment numbers don't include airlines like Cathay Pacific or Emirates), or are actively looking.

The total number of new student pilot certificates is down significantly. There are currently a total of 51200 student pilots in the FAA database. Historically between 5% and 10% of these may become at least CMEL holders, or 2500 to 5000. However, 11800 of those expire or expired this year and 10800 expire next year. These certificates were issued two to three years ago and have not been upgraded. Assuming the certificates that are newer are more active, that leaves a number of active student pilots at 28600. If history repeats itself (and loan money for flight training is scarce), 1400 to 2800 of these may become at least CMEL's.

The potential pool of pilots out there is less than one might expect. New student starts this year under the age of 40 are less than 5000 pilots. In recent years this number has been closer to 10000 on average. If the bill in congress does pass, and holding an ATP is the min requirement to hold a part 121 job and probably a fractional position, the pool will shrink significantly. In March of 2008 when the hiring reached it's peak and many "wet-ticket" 260 hour CMEL's were being hired, bonuses where being paid to get them and first year salaries were going up, especially at non-union carriers. I admit I'm an optimist, but I see nothing in the numbers to think that the shortage will not quickly be the same again when the hiring starts.

I hope you are correct, but I fear we won't see any real shortage. More hiring, in another year, or two, or five years, sure, but probably not the massive shortage we're hoping for. I would very much like to come back and admit I was wrong, down the road, however.

Lots of work put into this post, some interesting stuff here..thank you for posting.

I will go out on a limb and make this prediction: The increased FO mins such as ATP or 1500 hrs will not pass. Instead the trade off will be a revamped ab initio training scheme,( call it MPL or whatever you like) that will ensure an ample supply of new very poorly paid pilots well into the future. The industry argument will be "if only they were trained from the beginning in the aircraft they will be flying."

Great post!

You should not have restricted it to only first class medicals, since FO's are not required to have one. You typically have to have a first to get hired, but most companies do not require that FO's maintain the first until they prepare to upgrade... so, you are possibly missing up to half of the 121 pilots flying...

This is why we need to push for this legislation quickly. If hiring picks up at a decent clip there will not be enough students on hand and the argument for even more accelerated training (via MPLs, academies, etc) will be more desireable. However, if the ATP rule passes it will be hard to reverse and the airlines will have to figure something else out.

Yes, but like all polls, or studies, you can slant the "standards" to ensure the outcome you desire to show... since the first class medical is only required for Captains, and the study uses current 1st class medicals as the standard, then it fails to include people who may be in the training phase with no need yet for a 1st class, and 1/2 of the current 121 FO's who also will no longer need their 1st class until they upgrade.

Are you taking into account career ATP/type rated FO's that can be required to serve as RFO/IRO?

Not exactly. All Int'l flying requires us FOs to be type rated and maintain a 1st class medical. As a relief pilot to act as a PIC requires the 1st.


Cheers,

AA

Furthermore, this data is not accurate because many of the current pilots including myself whom hold ATP certificates and first class medicals are not working for an airline, nor are seeking employment with an airline. Many of us work for small flight operations, corporate, charter, air ambulance, firefighting, flight education, etc. Most corporate pilots have higher insurance minimums to meet, and therefore the majority hold ATP certificates. There are also a fair amount of pilots whom fly for leisure in their own aircraft and have careers entirely unrelated to aviation, whom pursue advanced ratings (such as an ATP) because they enjoy flying. This gives them reduced insurance rates as well as an added safety margin and greater overall knowledge of the sytem.

Simply having an ATP and first class medical does not render you an airline pilot, or unemployed seeking airline work.

I think the previous posts have shown that this study, while entertaining, is very far from an accurate picture of the industry.... it also is yet another great example of why folks with MBA's shouldn't run airlines, since they actually believe this stuff.

Most major airlines now require FO's to keep first class medicals. If you initially obtained a first class medical that expires in 2008, 2009, or 2010 and you let it go more than six months, it is still a first class, but with second class privileges. It still shows in the FAA database as a first class. You would be included in these numbers. You are correct in that those who never obtained a first class medical (I'm unaware of any 121 airline that will hire without one), and are a still a CMEL would not be included in the total pilot pool. However, that would happen at only a few of the regional airlines and maybe the fractional's. Total regional airline pilots are still less than 18500. Half would be FO's, say 9250. I bet most initially held a first class physical.

Agreed. Which would make the available pool even smaller.

The one thing that catches my attention is the available pool is pretty much unchanged from 2008 peak hiring, meaning there isn't a whole lot of additional pilots sitting around, furloughed or otherwise. There is not a glut of new pilots training. This is reflected by the number of flight school failures in the US in the last two years and the number that have gone to foreign flight training contracts to stay alive. The two major flight training funding sources left the business in 2006/2007 and have not returned.

That is factually incorrect. The airlines require potential new hires to have a first class medical when being hired.... for exactly the reason you cite - to ensure they CAN get one. Once hired, and since the majority of the time the airline pays for the medical ceritificate, they do not require FO's to keep a first class medical. So, when their initial first class expires and reverts to 2nd class they continue to work. When that expires, they go get a new 2nd class medical since it is all that is required, and is cheaper.

Yes, they do have to have one to get hired, but not to remain employed. So, after their first reverts to second, then expires... the new issue will be a 2nd class and they don't appear in your study.


Also, you need to clarify what you are talking about when you say major airlines, and when you say regional airlines. There are MANY airlines operating regional type equipment that the Federal Govt lists as being Major airlines...
Likewise there are large aircraft operators who are not even 1/10th the size of what some people call regionals.

You and I will have to agree to disagree on this. I think most FO's still go in and renew their medical once a year as a first and then get a new one twelve months later. I know I did as did my fellow pilots.

In the numbers major airlines are the ones on APC that fly large equipment, like 737's or bigger. Regionals are the ones that fly smaller equipment. Yes, I'm aware that Express Jet, Republic, Skywest and others have more than $1 billion in annual sales. However, in the numbers above they are considered regionals.

Yes, they do, but they are not required to keep 1st class, only Captains have to keep the first class.... wait a little bit, I'm sure others will pipe in that this is a major oversight in the study.

It also assumes, as others have pointed out, that just because somebody holds an ATP with a valid 1st class medical does NOT mean they are, or ever were an airline pilot. That does not make the pool smaller, it just means at this time they are not doing so.

I take it that you're single and/or on a really really long overnight somewhere.

The Dec 31st 2008 FAA database shows 613.746 total certs (student-ATP) and 271,584 hold either a COMM or ATP. Theres really no way to tell who went for a new medical on Jan 1st, who flies New York to Milan and who got out of the game and sells used cars.

Agreed, he/she needs to be including all ATP or CMEI with either 1st or 2nd class medicals.... since they are the potential pool.... additionally it could be argued that he/she should just include all ATP/CMEI regardless of medical since they may be keeping current teaching which only requires a third class medical, and when hiring resumes , they will get a new medical.

Ther are so many places in the "study" where flaws krept in that as I said, it makes for good entertainment...

Interesting numbers, but just realize that 5 years from now, there may be plenty of Indian/Chinese/Pakistani/Country X pilots who have 1500 hours.

Look at the past 20 years. Consumers ONLY care about low cost. They'll b1tch about bad service/food/delays but they'll keep buying the cheapest ticket. Management only cares about themselves and reducing costs. Pilots are the only group who benefits from high labor rates, and guess what - we're not decision makers in this process.

Foreign pilots and/or foreign airlines are a natural fit to today's environment.

Classes of physical
 

FWIW, Delta used to require F/Os and S/Os to get a first-class once a year, even though it was OK to let it "lapse" into a second-class after six months. (Don't know if this is still the policy.) The reason they gave was that it enabled them to obtain "certain waivers", perhaps having to do with insurance.

Also FWIW, a senior FAA flight surgeon advised that it's a good precaution to keep your first-class current, even if you only need a second-class now but will need a first-class down the road. He said that if some medical issue were to make granting a first-class a close call, they are more likely to renew an existing first-class than to "upgrade" a second to a first. If true, the reason for this may be more bureaucratic than medical.

Are you talking where the FO is never required to act as IRO/RFO?

Yes. This was before the 767ER etc. joined the fleet. As I said, I don't know what the current policy is.

Sorry, I was clear enough in my question? Are you saying that an FO OR an IRO never had to possess a first class? Even on a 767-200/300 that may have required one?

I've worked at two regionals and both of them had FO's get a 1st class medical every 12 months.

You think pilots could do better? I don't think so. The MBA doesn't mean anything, I'll give you that. But flying an airplane has little to do with running a business. Some of these businesses (UA comes to mind) have so much inertia and overhead from a long history of decisions made in differing economic times with differing managements, its like stopping a freight train at this point. There is much more going on behind the scenes than most non business folks realize, not to justify everything.

Its not like running a corner lemonade stand.

I'm surprised at some of the responses. To the OP, thanks for an interesting post.

Clarification
 

When we started flying 767ERs to Europe, I think all those F/Os and IROs had to have a type rating and a current first-class medical. I was saying that even when the FAA didn't require it for a particular seat (like DC-9 F/O), it was a company policy that the pilot get one at least once a year.

I'm not sure if I missed this in the authors piece, but does he count for how many of those commercial students were foreign? From personal experience, trying to find Americans wanting to take up the piloting profession is is like looking for a needle in a haystack in my part of town. There are at least 3 puppy mills cramming 300 Chinese students through the grinder every 6 months here in Dallas. That's 1500 new commercial certificates alone. My questions is, when it hits the fan again, will the airlines start looking abroad to hire foreign students at an even lower salary than they're willing to pay US citizens?

I ran total numbers and came up with the following: Total pilots in the FAA database with a certificate (Student, Recreational, Sport, Private, Commercial, or ATP), using the USA as a "country" (the database does include foreign pilots with an FAA certificate and I did remove them from the pool), and disregarding medical expiration date I returned 526,506 certificates. When I selected just ATPs in the USA without regard to medical I returned 111,746. CMEL with an instrument rating (no ATP) without regard to medical, I returned 72,513. The combined of the two is 184,259.

You can search with a limitation on the medical expiration. I choose limit the pool to those with medicals initially issued as first class that expired or will expire in 2009 and 2010. The number of ATPs is 76,257. The number of CMELs with an instrument rating but no ATP is 18,054. The total of the two is 94,311. That number at the end of 2007 based on my search with the same methodology then was approximately 104,000. If you add in the pilots that meet the above with a medical that expired in 2008 you would add 9906.

Here is a link to the FAA database through Landings.com which has a fairly good search engine:
Landings: Aviation's Databases

I used APC data for the current number of employed pilots. It didn't take that long to add them up.

While the actual numbers are interesting and debatable, using the same methodology in Jan 2008 and now I come up with about the same number of "available" pilots in the pool.

Because of ICAO rules, CAL requires all FO's/IRO's to hold a current first class medical.

Nope. Married. But I am sitting at home on reserve this month. Haven't flown a hour all month. And yes, getting a little bored. :)

Yep, I was trying to clarify what he was saying as he only mentioned FO's as a whole, as well as a waiver.

Thanks WEACLRS, interesting info.

But aren't those students destined for China's own exploding aviation industry, trained in the US because (among other reasons) China simply doesn't have the required GA infrastructure to handle that volume?

YES. And it is the only way some flight schools are surviving.

WEACLERS, you are ruining the day for the typical pessimistic airline pilot. :)

This may be how it is at AE, but not everywhere. When I was at ExpressJet we had to get a 1st Class Medical EVERY year. We were allowed to let it go past 6 months, HOWEVER when we went to get our medical renewed it was required to be renewed as a 1st Class Medical. We were never allowed to just get a 2nd Class. This is how it works at DAL/NWA as well.

BTW, when your 1st class medical hits 6 months it is STILL a 1st class medical. It does NOT become a 2nd class medical, you are just not allowed to excercise the privileges of that 1st class medical past 6 months.

Tom,

It still works this way at DAL. I'm a Diesel 9 FO, and I get a new 1st Class every 12 months.

PS-I hope you're enjoying retirement. It must be nice to look at all this junk knowing it no longer effects you. :)