As an old business analyst I occasionally take a look at the number of pilots available vs the number employed. The pilots included in the following numbers are those in the FAA pilot database that are US citizens, hold an ATP with active first class medical in 2009 and 2010, or hold a CMEL with a first class medical in 2009 and 2010.

In January of 2008 there were 104,100 pilots in the FAA database that fit that group. Today there are 94,300, a drop of almost 10,000 pilots. (There are in addition 5470 ATPs or CMELs that have first class medicals that expired in 2008 and have not been renewed)

In January 2008, using data from APC and AirInc, there were 93800 active pilots (not furloughed) employed by major and regional, fractional, and cargo carriers. That equates to an employment rate of 90%. If you factor in a conservative estimate of 5% of the Jan 2008 total pilot group being ineligible for a pilot position for either new medical or background issues, the employment rate would have been 95%.

Today using data from APC, there are 87400 active pilots for an employment rate of 92%. If you factor in those who have let their first class medical lapse (the 5470 pilots with medical dates in 2008), but are otherwise eligible, the employment rate currently would be 87%. Reducing the pilot pool by the same 5% of expected ineligibles, the current employment rate would be 92%.

Based on these numbers and assumptions, there are about 7000 pilots available who hold the right certificates, active or very recent medical, and are not ineligible for other reasons (poor employment history, back-ground check problems, retired, ect.) currently without a major, regional, cargo, or factional job. This number is slightly less than the number in Jan 2008. Many of these pilots may be employed in part 91 operations, are overseas (employment numbers don't include airlines like Cathay Pacific or Emirates), or are actively looking.

The total number of new student pilot certificates is down significantly. There are currently a total of 51200 student pilots in the FAA database. Historically between 5% and 10% of these may become at least CMEL holders, or 2500 to 5000. However, 11800 of those expire or expired this year and 10800 expire next year. These certificates were issued two to three years ago and have not been upgraded. Assuming the certificates that are newer are more active, that leaves a number of active student pilots at 28600. If history repeats itself (and loan money for flight training is scarce), 1400 to 2800 of these may become at least CMEL's.

The potential pool of pilots out there is less than one might expect. New student starts this year under the age of 40 are less than 5000 pilots. In recent years this number has been closer to 10000 on average. If the bill in congress does pass, and holding an ATP is the min requirement to hold a part 121 job and probably a fractional position, the pool will shrink significantly. In March of 2008 when the hiring reached it's peak and many "wet-ticket" 260 hour CMEL's were being hired, bonuses where being paid to get them and first year salaries were going up, especially at non-union carriers. I admit I'm an optimist, but I see nothing in the numbers to think that the shortage will not quickly be the same again when the hiring starts.

 

I hope you are correct, but I fear we won't see any real shortage. More hiring, in another year, or two, or five years, sure, but probably not the massive shortage we're hoping for. I would very much like to come back and admit I was wrong, down the road, however.

 

Lots of work put into this post, some interesting stuff here..thank you for posting.

 

I will go out on a limb and make this prediction: The increased FO mins such as ATP or 1500 hrs will not pass. Instead the trade off will be a revamped ab initio training scheme,( call it MPL or whatever you like) that will ensure an ample supply of new very poorly paid pilots well into the future. The industry argument will be "if only they were trained from the beginning in the aircraft they will be flying."

 

Great post!

 

You should not have restricted it to only first class medicals, since FO's are not required to have one. You typically have to have a first to get hired, but most companies do not require that FO's maintain the first until they prepare to upgrade... so, you are possibly missing up to half of the 121 pilots flying...

 

This is why we need to push for this legislation quickly. If hiring picks up at a decent clip there will not be enough students on hand and the argument for even more accelerated training (via MPLs, academies, etc) will be more desireable. However, if the ATP rule passes it will be hard to reverse and the airlines will have to figure something else out.

 

Yes, but like all polls, or studies, you can slant the "standards" to ensure the outcome you desire to show... since the first class medical is only required for Captains, and the study uses current 1st class medicals as the standard, then it fails to include people who may be in the training phase with no need yet for a 1st class, and 1/2 of the current 121 FO's who also will no longer need their 1st class until they upgrade.

 

Are you taking into account career ATP/type rated FO's that can be required to serve as RFO/IRO?

 

Not exactly. All Int'l flying requires us FOs to be type rated and maintain a 1st class medical. As a relief pilot to act as a PIC requires the 1st.


Cheers,

AA