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Sniper 01-02-2010 05:24 AM


Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 736458)
Colgan voted in ALPA about a month before the Buffalo crash. Pinnacle and Comair are also ALPA. 6 out of 6 were ALPA pilots. Mathematically significant or coincidence?

Neither.

A data set, such as airline pilots who are ALPA, that is a majority is expected to show up. A minority set such as 'former Gulfstream Academy pilots' is not expected to show up consistently. To show up 100% of the time in a large data set . . . that's why it is statistically significant.

A good book on this topic is here.

plasticpi 01-02-2010 06:23 AM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 736582)
Neither.

A data set, such as airline pilots who are ALPA, that is a majority is expected to show up. A minority set such as 'former Gulfstream Academy pilots' is not expected to show up consistently. To show up 100% of the time in a large data set . . . that's why it is statistically significant.

A good book on this topic is here.

I wouldn't call 3 accidents a "large" data set...

Sniper 01-03-2010 04:08 PM

Fair enough. I guess I need to read the book too.:D

TPROP4ever 01-03-2010 04:11 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 735998)
Your past clouds your objectivity. 3 for 3? That's got to be mathematically statistically significant, not just coincidence.


No, its only significant to you because it fits your "opinion". Period. that doesnt make it fact...


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