Not necessarily. 50 seaters are becoming uneconomical. They're not even being produced anymore. Tightening down scope will make it easier to recapture all scope. As 50 seaters continue to be parked regionals will continue to shrink. Less 70 seaters allowed means more lift needed at mainline. Either way, the pendulum is swinging back to mainline.

You mainline guys (mostly junior, I suspect) can beat your chests all you want to. No one is listening. The senior pilots at your carriers are in the drivers seat and they couldn't care less about scope. They only care about pay, days off, and retirement.

Scope will be sold again as soon as the price is right. Mark my words.

And you can just hang in your barbie jet until then, captain. I prefer making 30% more in the right seat. As has been pointed out many times on APC, at UAL anyway, 70 seat scope came with the bankruptcy along with 40% paycuts and furloughs. Just how was scope "sold"? What did we get in return? The senior pilots took $5-6K per month paycuts as the first 70 seaters were coming online. If senior pilots "couldn't care less", why did senior pilots go out on strike in 1985 when the b-scale did not affect them whatsoever? All of those senior guys are gone, but the junior (now senior) guys remember. Besides, scope affects everyone. Can you say Aer Lingus? Be a little jet lifer if you want. But don't expect to be able to stand up in your cabin anytime soon. Mark my words.

And you lifers can beat your chests all you want, mainline pilots aren't listening. You're nervous because you know all your growth came as a result of Bankruptcy contracts, which will not be happening again for quite some time. You realize that your growth has peaked, & now your wondering what the future holds as Legacys move farther away from 50 seaters and Mainline pilots threaten to tighten/recapture their flying.

What you fail to realize is that 70 scope was never sold in the first place, it was TAKEN along with payrates, pensions, & QOL. And if you think UAL/CAL guys will give away more scope you've got the blinders on. You really think the domestic narrowbody guys who are working 90 hours with only 12 days off are going to sell scope so they can continue to do that, or do you think they'll retain/tighten scope so they can move back up to a WB so they can make more?? Hmmm?

We are already 2.5 years into Age 65, and many of these senior guys who you claim are in the drivers seat will be forced to retire before the contract even kicks in.

Mark MY words. Scope will not be sold.

Showing how little you know.

1. DALPA did in FACT sell scope for money in the 90s. Twice! Way before bankruptcy. Otherwise we wouldn't have RJs!

2. You can easily stand in the cabin of a CRJ 700 or 900 unless you're over 6'2".

Revisionist history! We were growing like a weed long before bankruptcy.

As for the rest of it, we shall see. But careful throwing around the lifer comments, you man get an infraction for flamebait, lol.

Yes you were. With 50 seaters that are being parked at a rapid rate. 70 seaters will remain capped, which is why your growth is done.

Calling you a lifer is not flamebait. Are you ashamed by the term? Is it considered an insult? I don't think so. It's simply a term used to describe those who've had the decision to move on, but have chosen to stay at a regional. That's not an insult, it's simply a term.

Good post.

http://gaudiumdegaea.files.wordpress...ughing_cat.gif

Lets see, I was hired at XJT when we still had a full fleet of props and a bunch of jets starting to come in. CAL was laughed at for their scope that allowed us to go to 275 jets, until someone wrecked 931. We always said they'd sell scope, they're such a wretched group picking up overtime while they were furloughing pilots anyways. They'd sell their grandmother for $2/hr.

Well, they never sold scope did they?

They even went so far as to put out a press release saying they're fighting to get back all of their flying, thats significant and a heck of a start.

CAL managed to maximize what they could including getting Dash 8-400s. So why didn't CAL IACP/ALPA allow Ejets and CRJ700+ seaters on property?

And why in the hell is Colgan and Commutair flying for Continental? Why didn't XJT ALPA stop that? Or could they? hmmm, why is that? :rolleyes:

Not to mention this, and this is important, Delta and Continental are full of regional jet pilots now who know, we all know, were flying in replacement of mainline aircraft. A lot of Coex pilots are at CAL and not all are recent hires, many were there in the mid to late 90s. They're after correcting the sins of the past, past being underestimating the impact of RJs at CAL. At DAL, its multi-layered.

Now back in early 2000 it was all about frequency and access, now, its about capacity control and RASM-CASM, contribution.

ASA just acquired an additional 4 200s and 4 additional 700s. We have grown, not lost any. Explain that.

I was just giving you a hard time. ;) We already discussed my career goals anyhow.

I would agree that is growth.

Oh, ok. Lol. :)

Ummm... Wrong.

I'm not junior, and scope is #1. I have yet to meet a pilot at UAL that doesn't think the same. The Aer Lingus deal woke up the rest of the sleeping folks.
If you are using your "scope was sold" argument as your marking your words point, you might want to review how CH 11 went down for the UAL pilots. Here were the options; 1) accept the crappy scope clause we got. 2) turn down the contract, and risk the judge rubber stamping an 1113c contract that had ZERO scope in it. What would you have done? Try getting NO scope back in the bag!

We will see, but your assessment of UAL pilots is, well, wrong.

I don't disagree. My comments were mostly referring to DALPA, who sold scope long before any bankruptcies were even on the horizon.

You guys at CAL/UAL MAY hold the line at 50, but I doubt it. More than likely, you'll allow a limited number of 70 in exchange for concessions from management.

But mark my words, you will NOT eliminate all brand RJ flying.

What the he!l does it matter if any group "SOLD" their scope other than it makes some justified in their attitude now. It was a mistake and the tide is turning. The day of the 50 seat RJ is OVER, just listen to any analyst and see where everything is going. Saying that all brand RJ flying will not be eliminated is a joke. Who the heck cares when it is reduced by 50-75%? What is the point, it will never be the same.

What I sense here is a "spoiled" group who are sensing the party is over. Sorry to sound harsh but there are A LOT of nervous sounding RJ drivers in this thread. Good news is the majors will be hiring in droves, submit an application and come on over!

KC

spoiled? Im not. QOL and my pay at the "regional" level are far from spoiled. You are right, hopefully this results in more mainline jobs, where there jets belong in the first place!

Spot on. Scope is no longer for sale, period. The mainline MEC's know that any scope giveback whether actual or perceived will result in all out mutiny.

Captain Tony needs to polish the resume because the days of the "barbie jet" bubble have come and gone. (partly TIC considering his reaction to the term earlier. I can't believe he hasn't heard the term before...)

It's not pulling up the ladder... it's only pulling up the ladder on the ones that have put a glass ceiling over themselves and parked at outsourced feeders for a career, which is never the way it was intended. The wages are half what they should be and that has to stop. I intend on doing everything I can during my career to increase the amount of mainline, top end jobs.

I won't disagree that ALL branded RJ flying will be eliminated, but not because it's "sold" by senior folks. I'm guessing management wants to keep it as badly as we want to shed it. It will be THE defining issue of the JCBA.

Your forecast, now that I know what it actually is, has merit. Nobody ever gets everything they want in negotiations, and I expect there to be compromises in all areas.

i think bottom line is we all wouldnt mind flyn a rj if we r on mainline seniority list with a new contract!

The only really big hurdle is the tightening down scope issue. Does this work in management's favor? Unless mainline pilots are flying the RJ's for regional rates, it doesn't.

I hope you guys can do it! and I am a regional pilot that will probably get furlowed because of it. I know you CAL/UAL guys could care less about that but in all honesty what do you think you will have to give up to do it. Has your union even given any idea of what it will take. I am just curious because I think there is a whole lot more than just flying at regional pay rates involved. If you have ever looked at a regional contract work rules there is a night and day difference. The bottom line is that crapping on us for both pay and work rules saves a lot of money. Are CAL and UAL guys willing to drop the QOL of their airline just to get all the flying in house. Like I said I hope it will happen, I just am affraid that when the pilot group really sees what they will have to give up to do it that they will start to give up that scope even further.

Background: I am a regional pilot who would love to see all flying consolidated among a few players, namely the major/legacy carriers. I feel that our true strength as a union lies in sheer numbers, and the current myriad of competing airlines and competing unions is selling us all short.

My thoughts: It is going to be close to impossible to get the cat back in the bag. CAL/UAL pilots can try to reclaim flying from the regionals, but taking on all that flying will put CAL/UAL at a competitive disadvantage relative to companies like US Airways and American which still have large regional feed operations. I know someone has to start somewhere, and I think the only meaningful first step is going to be to bring all regional fleet types under the major scope at current or very slightly improved pay and work rules for those regionals. Year by year, each major will have to assimilate sub-100 seaters into the mainline contracts. Only once that is done can real pay hikes begin without collapsing. I just don't feel CAL/UAL management will really give in to allowing that perceived disadvantage to exist. Again, I wish you luck. The near term pain for me will be worth it down the road, but I just don't think management will budge so long as every other major competitor is outsourcing. Good luck, though. We truly are all counting on you.

Not certain if it is a competitive disadvantage. Sure if you look at crew costs they'll come up with pay and work rules. But you get merger synergies (not calling UCALs plan a merger btw), you stop funding someones profits, you stop being obligated to use airplanes you don't want anymore because of a contract with a contractor, you take control back and you prevent the creation of the next RAH.

The whipsaw, and the negative externalities from it, just bit airline managers and airline BOD's as much as it has bit pilots over the years.

We'll see if its enough to tighten scope.

Been there, been crapped on. Many of us are keenly aware to what life is like at the regionals, having survived it before going to mainline companies.

As far as "what are we willing to give up" goes, I think you'd be surprised how close the work rules are in the post Ch11 world. Flying at UAL is no picnic. It's gotten a little better over the past couple of years with incremental improvements, but right after Ch11 we were flying 95 hours, 11 days off per month, and duty/flight times basically at FAR's. I don't know, but THINK that CAL pilots are mostly right at the FAR's. Throw in a bunch of all-nighters, and it was a real picnic. Last winter over Christmas, here was my schedule. 6 on, 1 off, 4 on, 1 off, 6 on. (I called in fatigued for the last 4 days of that sequence). In that time, I had 3 all-nighters and 4 east coast departures before 6am body-clock time. It was legal because they would put a 25 hour layover after the all-nighters and then depart me early off the east coast the day following the arrival. Try getting your body to figure THAT out 3 times in a 2 week period.

That being said, the goal is not to accept the current state of regional work rules. The goal is to raise the standard of what is acceptable. It's all about leverage. If UAL wants a single operating certificate, they need a single list. If they want a single list, they need a JCBA. If they want a JCBA, they are going to have to address the Scope issue to some degree. How much is what the negotiations are about.

We shouldn't negotiate in public, as management has and does use these forums to "make their case" regarding contract issues, so I'll stick to a few general ideas.

The 50 seater market is much more limited than the number of airframes currently in the market with oil above a certain value. I think that Comair's announcement yesterday will support that theory. So the fight is MOSTLY about what happens above 50 seats. jetBlue has successfully brought the E190 in-house at a VERY competitive wage. The E170 common type would make it a reasonable assertion that it could be incorporated into the mainline fleet as well.

It's easy to think with the success of companies like Skywest and Republic is because of their cheap labor and horrible working conditions. You have to remember that their results are shielded from the prevailing economic realities because they are guaranteed a profit by their mainline partners. The two attempts to operate a regional fleet independently were miserable failures (Indy Air and XJET) for a reason... without someone taking all the risk out of the uber-risky airline market, those 50 seaters suddenly don't look so good - regardless of how cheap you can find people to fly them.

What will happen? Who knows. I, like everyone else, have a guess, but I'm not going to state it on a public forum. What I DO know is that I like the direction that the UAL/CAL pilot groups are heading on this. Despite the opinions of some of this forum, my perception is that we are more unified on this issue than any other.

Good luck to us all. Job losses are never fun, and while the regionals have been growing at ridiculous levels for the last decade, we have lost almost half our pilots. For the sake of the piloting profession, here's to hoping that this tide turns, and turns hard.

I don't care who you are or what you say, money talks. Does anyone really think that if management offers the pilots enough money that they will care about the regional pilots below them? I personally don't think that the top half, if not more, of the mainline guys give two ****s about RJ's and outsourcing. As long as they are getting theirs, they don't care. And if you offer them an even bigger slice of the pie, they will care even less. If I was a senior mainline guy, I wouldn't care either and would take the money.

Wrong... I was a senior mainline guy. Not anymore. That's because of downsizing. If we tighten up scope, I get senior again...

Scope is number one for me.

You're right. There are many good reasons for mainline to take the flying back, unfortunately the bean counters don't see the intrinsic value of having 100% operational control. At the beginning of the year, they are knowingly taking into account the errors and losses they'll accrue with their regional partners. Their business plans already have the 'slop' baked into them. And they're fine with it because at the end of the day, it's just a numbers game.

As someone already mentioned, the mainline pilots will essentially be flying the regional jets for going regional rates. Will they suck it up and do what needs to be done?

I'll try this again....

You don't even have to assume that mainline pilots care about the regional guys below them, all you have to do is assume they care about THEMSELVES... and we KNOW they do that. :)

Let's say UAL didn't grow 1 pilot since 2000, but also didn't outsource any flying jobs to regional carriers. I'd be 70% up the list. As it stands, I'm 50% up the list. And I've got it GOOD compared to people below me. Our 747-400 fleet is substantially smaller than it used to be. That's not good for ANYBODY unless you are in the top 100 or so. Those guys might not care, but they are also going to be in the VAST minority when it comes time to vote. I'd estimate 95% of our pilots have been negatively impacted to some degree by the outsourcing of UAL jobs to our regional, code-share, and now international revenue share partners. I'm telling you right now that there are MORE pilots at UAL than not that wouldn't vote for a relaxed scope than would, regardless of how much of a pay raise is involved. Even I can't understand what I just said. :) All you need is 50% +1. I'm halfway up the list, and you could give me a 100% payraise, and if scope was relaxed, I'd vote no. You think anyone JUNIOR to me would vote for that deal?? No way. Now, how MUCH scope needs to be tightened to get it to pass is the big question. All regional flying done in house? Get rid of all 70 seaters? Cap the 70 seaters where they are? Allow Aer Lingus to keep growing in IAD? That is where the negotiation is going to be. Trust me, relaxing scope is a complete non-starter, regardless of the money.

My solution to this whole regional/mainline thing

Regionals max capacity 50 seat.
Max distant per leg 300 miles.
Only hub to spoke or spoke to hub (No multi stops to final destination)
No International Flying.

But unfortunatly I makes sense:).

For Mgmnt only rewards stupidity (mainly themselves)

Feel free to chip in.

My 2 cents..for what it's worth.
I suspect mainline mgmt. will fight tooth and nail to prevent any return of regional flying to the mainline senority list.(it is possible they will purchase a regional or two, but they almost assuredly will keep the certificates/lists/contracts seperate)
Why? For same reasons most posters here want the lists/contracts combined. If mgmt. puts all their eggs in one basket they are more vulnerable to a job action. They lose the ability to shift regional-size flying from one low bidder to another. They know they may get a one time contract at current low rates, but the next one would require big raises,etc. If they lose the ability to shift flying to some other low bidder, then they face either labor war or higher regional costs.
I will cite Comair as a historical example.They went on strike to achieve superior pay and work rules. Since achieving that better contract Delta has steered additional flying to cheaper operators. Now Comair is facing shrinking to, what is it..less than half their former size? Mngmt does not want to lose the ability to move flying around to different operators.If all flying is required to be on one senority list/contract they would lose that ability.
So, what can we do? Well, the mainline pilots can "buy" the flying back. However, I suspect that the cost would be so high that it would not get rank and file approval.
2.go on strike over it and risk everything on a case by case basis.
3.have a national senority list for all ALPA pilots (or some other visionary thinking union). That way as the flying gets shifted around, there would at least be ajob to "shift" to without taking pay cuts in the 75% range plus start over on probation.
Like I said,it's just my 2 cents. I am not Nostradameus, so all my musings may prove to be wrong, but I do think the "take it back" scenerio will be difficult.If anyone is serious about protecting careers, the national list is, in my opinion, the surest and fairest way.
So it goes.

Big money doesn't mean squat when your flying gets furthered outsourced and you get downgraded back to FO. You don't think so? Ask a DAL CA who lost his DC9 CA seat and went back to 757 FO. You think he will vote in more pay and less scope? At NWA/DAL we have watched the DC9 fleet shrink from 160+ airframes to less then 50. Meanwhile the E175's & CRJ900's kept rolling in with new shiny paint, and the displacements/downgrades continued.

Perhaps you saw UAL park 94 737's? Yes, 94 of them in less then a year. You really think those guys will vote in more pay for less scope? CAL has 250+ 50 seat RJs and numerous 70 seat Q400's taking former 737 jobs. You really think those guys will vote in more money for less scope?

I could go on, but like Mainline pilots I think you get the point.

Here is hoping they put me out of a my current job and in source ALL flying in UAL colors!