It can certainly happen, but it's nowhere near as likely today as in the early days of deregulation when things were still shaking out. It was assumed and understood that there would be post-deregulation casualties...

Now that we have three "super legacies", the loss of any single one would cause major economic disruption, especially during peak travel periods when there is zero excess capacity anywhere else in the system. The government would almost have to intervene. Even a modest sized major like US would cause enough disruption that Washington might save them just to avoid the bad press.

Regionals are mostly small enough that nobody will care if they go away, and they have the additional risk factors of competition, sudden contract termination, and getting stuck with obsolete airplanes.

A major with old (paid for) airplanes can limp along with them for quite a while. A regional which does not own a fleet of the "airframe of the month" can be rapidly kicked to the curb (see the comair thread for more details).

Also a less-than-competitive major can linger for decades, breaking even or losing modest sums...a regional in that same boat will only make it as far as the next contract renewal.

Odds of long-term stability are probably significantly better with a major (not including startups).

 

Clueless indeed. NetJets only has a couple hundred on furlough, with an expected rehire date in 2012...

 

I agree with Rickair7777.

Rick may not agree with the following statement, but I personally believe that making an airline "career" at a regional is like playing russian roulette. It is only a matter of time.

Regionals DO NOT:

1) own their gates,
2) own their reservation systems,
3) own brand names with any meaning to anybody except industry insiders.

This is the world we live and work in. With a little luck and hard work providing a valuable service to our customers and our employers, most of us will get an interview opportunity to work for an airline with actual long term economic value.

There are no guarantees in life, but some bets are better to take than others.

 

SkyWest Inc
1. OWNS the gates in ATL that we use. (Look it up, they were part of the purchase of ASA).
2. HAS a reservation system, though it isn't used anymore.
3. Is a widely recognized brand on the west coast and the inter mountain west.

Next question, please.

 

mesa ownes gates in phx

 

You don't own those gates, the tax payers do!
kinda like, Go! is writing checks that JO can't cash

 

Well that ought to get on your own feet. Look how well it worked for FlyI and ExpressJet.

 

Why do you hate us? You created us.

And your comment doesn't make it any less true that the one I was replying to had no idea what he was talking about, like most of the pilots on here.

 

I didn't create you. That was before my time. I also don't hate you. What I hate is your inflammatory attitude that you display whenever mainline talks about recapturing scope or in anyway hindering the potential growth of your airline. You chose to stay at ASA, & if UAL/CAL recaptures scope in anyway, & that results in backwards movement at your job then that is a decision you have to live with.

If you want to add non-inflammatory remarks to a debate as to why you think more scope will be sold that's fine. But your comments are often the opposite, using phrases such as 'beating your chests'. I see it all the time in threads about scope, mergers, and anything else that has to do with ASA.

 

I do agree.