The article is incorrect.........the actual number needed will be 466,621.333.

The real problem will be finding 1/3 of a pilot to complete training.

Don't worry there is a plan...offer 1/3 the wages to someone with a fresh Comm. Lic. I'm sure there will be a line to take it

Great stats....either:

A) Someone over at Boeing found a bag with pure MDMA and a DJ Tiesto CD

or

B) A senior executive had a flashback to his torture under the MKULTRA program in the 1960s

...either way...if true....I wonder if these jobs will pay more than poverty wages. Wait, does that even matter? Some 18 year old will sign up to work for free anyway....we're all doomed.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The worldwide airline industry has just experienced the worst downturn in its history. There has been an unprecidented confluence of factors that have led to this miserable decade; such as:

9/11
SARS Epidemic
Volcanic Dust
Age 65
Airline Hiring Practices (low time, unqualified pilots)
The Great Recession

We are now just beginning to see signs of a slow recovery. Barring any further catastrophe, the tide is turning in the favor of the pilot.

For those of you with perseverence, stamina, and fortitude, prepare yourselves for the interview process and reward. Perhaps the rest should contemplate another career direction.

"Lead, follow, or get out of the way!" - Thomas Paine

winglet

Well if Embraer has their way that number will be cut in half and I bet most of the growth will be in Asia. That isn't for everyone, but I have no doubt the ATPs of the world will trumpet this number and use it to suck in thousands of unsuspecting pilots.

There will never be a pilot shortage.

I'm not so sure of that. It's a lot harder to get loans for flight training now then it was a couple years ago. Plus it's much more known how little pilots make and I believe that will sway people from starting in this industry.

Maybe Embry Riddle should require "Chinese 101" for their professional pilot students.

Excellent - at that rate it will only take 19 hours for the airline industry to absorb the 1000 furloughed / soon-to-be-furloughed Comair pilots.

Sign me up for those work rules!

Lets say an airline has a route structure to fly a 777 on international routes with on two hours on the ground in between turns. That would keep the jet flying 20 hours per day which is limited by the turn times.

OK, 20 hours per day each and every day, is 7,300 hours per year.
(20*365=7300). 7,300 hours flown by 40 pilots (20 crews) is 365 hours per crew per year (or 30 hours per month).

I want to work there!

The reality is that, depending on the route structure and the labor work rules, 6-8 crews (12- 16 pilots) per jet is pretty common.

Look at it another way, airlines will attempt to fly pilots to the FAR limits, that is, extract the maximum legal productivity from the employee. If you start at 1000 hours per year, and work backwards taking into account vacation, days off, training, and aircraft routing you should end up with far fewer than 40 pilots.

Although, I like the way you think.

Exactly what reward is that?

Is it the opportunity to fly a shiny jet because every since you were a little one you've dreamed of being a pilot, and you just love to fly? Poverty wages are poverty wages, and they only get worse when you go offshore. The rate of return and long term financial reward for a kid who has the ability to pilot an aircraft is much better spent preparing for a career outside of a highly volatile career field like piloting.

The last thing we need are bunch of kids in the cockpit that don't have the ability to run the most basic cost-benefit analysis. Working as a plumber will provide a better return over a career than flying airplanes (no disrespect to plumbers).