I'm just curious HSLD, but does UAL staff the 777 on 12-16 crews per airplane?

I thought I heard that DAL staffs closer to 20, but maybe I heard wrong. Just wondering if the 12-16 you mention is the average overall, or just peritnent to a fleet type. And yes, I know that UAL's contract is differnet than DAL's which may skew the numbers.

Here is a somewhat more credible article on this subject.

FlightGlobal: Pilot Shortage

Alteon's (now Boeing's "Training and Flight Services" division) reductions are indeed curious given this. However IATA, IFAPA, FAA and several others say there will be a global and national pilot shortage over the next 2 decades. In the US this is hard to believe knowing what we know, but I think the argument would have it the 1500 hour law, plus reductions in pilot trainee starts, flight training financing, and flight training capacity plus the gradual drain of experienced pilots to other countries might eventually lead to a shortage of pilots. I tend to doubt there will ever be a shortage in the US, just a shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty-level wages.

HSLD,

In time, the reward would be getting hired on with a successful and growing airline at a time when normal career progression is soon to return and at a time when most labor contracts are beginning the process of reclaiming the concessions of the last decade.

The intended audience of my post was the qualified career pilot who has endured great hardships, feels defeated with a stagnated career and is considering quitting the industry. They have endured so much and come so far, it would be regrettable to give up now that there is a small light at the end of the tunnel.

The barriers to entry for the "shiny jet" chasers are being formulated as we speak. That, along with the age 65 attrition will eventually create movement in airline career progression.

As for the young people who still want to be airline pilots despite the mess this industry has gotten itself into, I too question their career research ability. But, as long as they are willing to earn it the old school way, I won't be the one to slam the door in their face.

winglet

The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics here keeps records on and makes projections on job growth in the Unites States. They do not care who wins and it's their job to do this. As far as airline pilots is concerned, they say the group will grow from 76,800 jobs in 2008 to 83,300 jobs by 2018, or 8% more. That's 6,400 jobs over the 2008 figure.

Now we have Boeing Training and Flight Services saying here that by 2028 North America as a whole will add 97,350 airline pilot jobs. They do not break this figure into ten-year or one-year periods, nor by U.S versus other countries in North America. But if we divide 97,350 by 20 years to get a yearly average of 4,868 jobs per year, and multiply it by 10 we get 48,675 jobs added to North America during a hypothetical ten year period. I will venture a guess on the low side that one third of these jobs, or 16,225 jobs will be American.

On the one hand we have USBLS saying we are going to add 6,400 jobs in the next ten years and on the other someone saying this figure is an impressive 16,225 jobs. I will leave it to you to decide which to believe, an independent statistics organization or one that sells stock in airliner manufacturing.

Winner. I seriously doubt Delta will be scrounging the bottom of the barrel saying to themselves "we just can't find anymore pilots!"

Regionals... that's another story (I hope).

How can there be a serious conversation about pilot shortage without one mention of Kit "Pilot Shortage" Darby or Roger "Spray Tan" Cohen?

Boeing Current Market Outlook 2010-2029
 

Cubdriver,

The source of all of these articles can be found here:

Boeing Current Market Outlook 2010-2029

World air travel is growing exponentially. It is interesting reading regardless of what some think of it's accuracy.

winglet

I agree with what cubdriver said. Also, pilot/labor costs are one of the highest costs for an airline. Do you think airline managers are just sitting there not trying to figure this 'issue' out?

As usual Cubdriver nails it, any forecast will be more inaccurate the further it extends the time horizon.



The very nature of the source is why many question the numbers. What company would say they anticipate little need for the product they make, or that they anticipate the price of their stock to fall. This is known as marketing.

Boeing is somewhat famous for painting a rosey picture of their future. They are not alone in this respect.
Go look at the predictions they made in 2000.:D

You came up with a pretty good list of some of the things that made this decade bad for aviation, it is a very large assumption that similar and different things will not effect the future of aviation over the next two decades.

Recommended Reading:

Airbus Global Market Outlook 2009-2028

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

ICAO LONG-TERM TRAFFIC AND AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT FORECASTS

World air travel is growing exponentially in spite of Doubting Delbert and Negative Nancy :p.

winglet