I would be careful with the word exponential, it implies a doubling over a short time period. I think we can safely say that such a doubling will not occur in ten or twenty years and that growth will be much stronger in some regions than others.


"A courtier presented the Persian king with a beautiful, hand-made chessboard. The king asked what he would like in return for his gift and the courtier surprised the king by asking for one grain of rice on the first square, two grains on the second, four grains on the third etc. The king readily agreed and asked for the rice to be brought. All went well at first, but the requirement for 2 n − 1 grains on the nth square demanded over a million grains on the 21st square, more than a million million (aka trillion) on the 41st and there simply was not enough rice in the whole world for the final squares. (From Meadows et al. 1972, p. 29 via Porritt 2005)"

 

Good post Winglet, I'm in perfect alignment. There is indeed a small light at the end of the tunnel.*

*(Doesn't mean all of us are halfway through the tunnel yet.)

 

All three of your sources have a vested interest in making a rosey prediction for the future. One makes airplanes. The other two receive government money in anticipation of 'projected growth.'

But the biggest flaw in your argument is that air travel should grow "exponentially." In a logical business model, the available seat-miles would grow linearly with the market demand.

Generally, that happens linearly with population increase. And the rate of population change, per year, is globally decreasing. That is, even though more people are born every year than the year before, it makes a smaller percentage change in the earth's population each year.

The major carriers spent the last 10 years trimming ASMs to raise load factors. If revenue passenger travel increased by 2% next year, would they increase the ASMs by 6% to carry them (and reduce load factor?) I think not....but it would be exponential.

Finally, I don't think the article says it will creat a lot of GOOD pilot jobs....that expanded figure probably includes the lowest-paying CFI job going.

 

UAL T38 Phlyer,

ASMs increase with demand based on the forecast growth of each region's GDP, not its population growth. I'm not arguing the accuracy of the reports, but I do believe that we were hit with the perfect storm over the last decade and it's now time to recover. It will be up to us as a professional group to demand quality piloting jobs.

Please forgive my optimism.

"The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." - Michaelangelo

Good Luck,

winglet

 

Unfortunately for the rest of us, 23,295 of those pilots will be Tim Martins.

Which means the industry will need 5 pilots a year. In Somalia.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism, but it should always be tempered with reality.
Optimism is what causes the fish to swallow the presented bait, along with the hook, line and sinker.

"Cleared to Dream" - the now famous ALPO production and all that.

 

jungle,

The word exponential implies numbers or quantities raised to an exponent. I suggest reading the reports. Future pilot hiring may be more polynomial .

Good Luck,

winglet

 

True exponential growth is most often observed in cultured bacteria or nuclear reactions. I have been reading such reports for thirty years and if you think world GDP is going to double in twenty years you have not been paying attention.

Growth in aviation will be determined by world economic policy, not Boeing.
Policy is looking pretty weak for the foreseeable future, with few exceptions.
I have already had more than my share of good luck, but as we all know good luck favors the prepared.

 

My hope is not just in the retirements with the senior captains allowing movement, I'm looking forward to the baby boomers as a whole retiring, and spending that hard earned retirment money flying the globe.

Winglet, you are often well thought with your opinions and sources, I will agree that the perfect storm may be brewing, but we know how fragile our economy and industry is. For that reason, I refrain from too much optimism.

 

winglet,

Have you ever met skyhigh?

Skyhigh, meet Winglet.