What do think will happen at Eagle?
 

Just thought it would be interesting to hear what people think will happen to Eagle AMR? A lot of good news has been coming out. Is it trying to pump and dump, or grow, merge?:)

Ipo.......

Pump N Dump. Flowthroughs go to AA, which lowers the average seniority (lower labor cost). Upgrades happen (pilot morale technically should improve). New aircraft deliveries (9 more CRJ700s still to be delivered). Lots of fanfare and press releases about how American Eagle Airlines is growing and prospering.

Then IPO

Then AMR removes the CRJs from Eagle, after sending out RFPs to Skywest, RAH, Mesa etc. Park the ATRs and contract Colgan to fly Q400s on our current prop routes. Get another lowballer to fly their surplus 50seaters in the base of your choice (JFK/LGA, ORD, DFW, LAX).

American Eagle stock tanks, AMR stock jumps. Execs collect bonuses and have a party. When Eagle declares BK they will be purchased by SKYW/RAH/Pinnacle.

Who invited the Buzz Kill? ^

Now THAT's the insight of a long-term AMR employee!!

That's exactly what AMR would like to do. The only thing preventing it is that nobody is stupid enough to buy AE without some very long-term contract guarantees. If they really want to get rid of them they will have to downsize AE themselves, ala COMAIR. Wouldn't make sense to get rid of airplanes which are on lease/mortgage...have to wait until they expire.

Is an IPO even possible? Since they are owned by AMR are they already publicly traded as AMR?

Being the information ***** that I am, I found this on the APA web site.
http://public.alliedpilots.org/APA/L...C0%3d&tabid=59

Go JetBlue!:D

they are on record as having saying that a spinoff is the only realistic option facing them now. ie issue ae stock to existing amr shareholders.

From Major Airline Forum this site, AA Recall; the follwing is from that thread
""Republic has a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to buy a 50% stake (JV) in AMR Eagle, in exchange for AMR giving a 10 year Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA) on existing Eagle (MQ) and Midwest (YX) routes.""

I fail to see where APA mentions A320 and E190's that are replacing AE flying which is the same as replacing AA flying. Seems when you have a known dog to kick around just keep kicking the same dog (AE). APA now has West Jet with JB interline agreement with AA. Wait and see how some known AE and AA routes start appearing as West Jet and JetBlue flight. BOS-DCA is JB, BOS-RDU is in NOV JB. APA is short on insight. AA will allow AE to be replaced on routes by JB and West Jet and AE will move aircraft over and replace AA mainline flying. Yeap, keep kicking the little dog.

Oh, I still forcast that AA will have an interline agreement with Frontier in the next three months. GO APA.

Of course it's possible. It's precisely the same thing CAL did to COEX (ExpressJet) in 2002....and that worked out out real well.....for CAL of course.

Yea, there's definitely some bigger plane scope issues eating their lunch. As for the article, it was written by Mike Boyd and was Eagle specific, which is what the OP started the topic with.

Not looking good for Eagle per say, but from an industry perspective, there are better (than eagle) jobs being created, albeit at the expense of APA jobs.

Boyd has been a consultant for APA for at least 5 years. Just like any consultant, I only get paid if I make my customer is happy. Boyd publicizes his forecasts at every media possible short of having a blog of his own. APA and Boyd can keep looking at AE all they want. APA will give scope for additional CRJ700 and maybe small number CRJ900's as I read between the lines if APA can have AA get the 125-140 seater's at AA. I see a US Airways type deal coming.

But I still think the interline agreements will be to move AE aircraft out of routes replaced by interline agreement airlines and AE replaces AA mainline flights. This way no Interline agreement airlines have replaced an AA mainline route, it was replaced by an AE aircraft. AA already now has A320 and E190's and B737 from interline agreement airlines flying on some of the same routes with overlap. I would not worry about AE if I was APA or Boyd. Besides Boyd failed to mention that after 67 dollars a barrel of oil the S80 is a gas hog and flying on that airplane for 3-4 hours hurts also.

The rplacement aircraft for S80 at AA is here. A320, E190 and B737, they just not crewed by APA pilots. So yes APA with Boyd's analysis has kept AE from flying larger aircraft within house but others are, and those airplanes are still not crewed by APA pilots.

But if I was a consultant for APA, I would tell them to get over AE, they are here. You should worry not to let someone else show up on property. That working with AE pilots is better than working with JB or West Jet pilots because there companies have there own shareholders to pacify, not AMR's.

I think thats a stretch... but we shall see. The other carriers bring a lot more to the property than Eagle ever can by virtue of mainline equipment, not antiquated uneconomical capacity. And I speak solely in reference to the airframes.

I see a Comair type reduction at AE with a sell off of the balance to Republic or SkyWest.

The next generation model, the C-series Canadair fits the gap at AA nicely. (BTW, page 18 of that same publication has a piece on the MD-80.)

True, that wasnt nice of me.

Lets break out the ole reliable Jetblue/AE merger. Eagle is sold to jetBlue. Garton becomes new CEO. Barger takes a high level position at AMR or remains as President of AE/jetblue.

jetblue can re-assign their A320s/E190s across the Eagle system to cover higher density flying out of ORD/DFW. Eagle would park all E135/140s and keep about 50-80 E145s. Remaining E145s would cover existing lower density JB routes like JFK-BTV/ROC/SYR/etc with increased frequency compared to what JB currently does with the A320/E190. Eagle parks all ATRs and orders Q400s for Caribbean, Miami, and possibly short haul routes in the other bases.

seniority lists merged. jetblue pilots have super seniority on all A320/E190 flying. Eagle pilots have super seniority on all CRJ/E145/Q400 flying. Master sen list has top half of current JB pilots, top half of current AE pilots (most of them will be gone to AA for flowthrough), bottom half of current JB pilots, then bottom half of current Eagle pilots.

New union representation for AE+JB combo, APA. APA creates a master seniority list for AA/JB+AE and creates mechanisms for pilots to move between the carriers.

AA mainline continues to focus on transcon and premium domestic and int'l first class service while Eagle+JB does a sort of economy/business type offering while keeping a low cost structure.

Flyby, can I have some of that stuff you're smoking? It has to be real good.:cool:

doom n gloom
 

hurry and get out, sky will fall, rivers will flow upstream, it's y2k all over again.

Regardless of what happens, why would some live in fear of what they don't know or what's not under their control? Enjoy your job until that day comes!

you guys are scaring me. I have an interview at eagle coming up, and I'm not at all in tune with whats going on.

can somebody clue me in ?

Its a lot like that Charles Dickens novel "A tale of two cities", when it says it was the best of times, it was the worst of times." I think that pretty sums up Eagle.

"the best of times":
We had a bid with 121 captain vacancies."came out on oct 20"
About 160 more captains should be leaving to AA.
MIA should be opening as a base in FEB.
LAX base should double in size.
Still have 13 more CRJ to be delivered.

"It worst of times"
Eagles gonna get sold
A crap load of 50 and less seat aircraft.


:cool:

LOL, ya I know a guy who sells the real good stuff ;) things with Eagle will either turn out really good, or really bad. I don't think there will be much middle ground. So, you gotta ask yourself... Do you feel lucky, punk??!!

Be affraid...be very very affraid!

Classic! I hope he/she is old enough to know who/what you just quoted :p

I'm old enough for any Eastwood flick.

But in all seriousness, from the people that see this trend that may occur, am I just wasting my time? I have a good paying flying job where life is good, but flight time is single engine vfr. Do you think I should stay put? or go to Eagle and hang on to the roller coaster that might happen. I must say, the lure of flying a jet is working, I never thought I would have shiny jet syndrome but I have it now. GA aircraft just aren't doing it for me.

I'm assuming that everybody who makes these post are people with a higher perspective of the 121 world than me, so I'm just asking for a bit of advice, when the final decision has to be made I'll make it.

it can get very good or very bad - the latter if they do not get much needed staffing. plz come.

Comair Shrinkage = Strike against the company and the company will get even

This isn't a likely scenario at Eagle. Eagle is simply a tax shelter people....

AMR doesn't like farming it's work. example in hand- chitaqua landing at an airport with no tsa or services...

In regards to LAX, I was told only 8 or so crews will be added with the 3 additional ERJ's in April. The rest will be ORD CRJ crews flying through, have you heard of anymore expansion beyond that in LAX?

yeah, it was either in jetnet, or one of the hi6's ....let me find it and ill post the quote.

This is from eaglewire oct21:

In all, Eagle will increase to 64 daily round trips from LAX, up from 39 today. By shifting CRJ-700 aircraft that are currently operating in DFW, Eagle will begin serving Houston, Phoenix and Oklahoma City, beginning in April. Boise, El Paso, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, and Tucson will also be added, using ERJs. Eagle will serve Albuquerque using a mix of CRJ and ERJ aircraft -- and all four of our daily departures to Denver will be upgraded to two-class CRJs. This is all exciting news for Eagle and further proof that we play a central role in American's overall network strategy.

To support these changes, we plan to expand Eagle's new LAX remote terminal facility in the coming months to add gates that can accommodate the additional departures.


You are right, it does look like alot of the additional flying will be ORD CRJ crews flying through LAX. But 3 extra planes isnt bad news for the guys at LAX.

Nice, thanks for that. I don't have sabre access anymore since my leave. I am hoping I can hold LAX within the next 6 months. I'm wondering if they will create a CRJ RSV base in LAX? (Just like Skywest has a RSV based in SFO for their United flying). Since there will be Phoenix turns, Denver, etc, if someone would call in sick/time out in LAX that seems like it would throw everything out of sync. Deadheading a crew from ORD or LGA would just take to long to make up the flying and potentially lose revenue. Who would I talk to pitch that idea?? haha

.Classic..

Stick to your current job. it is hard to find a good paying job. You might not even get to fly a shiny jet at Eagle, we are still sending a lot of newhires to the ATR in SJU, MIA, DFW. Im not sure where you live, but be prepared to commute across the country regardless if you come to Eagle.

Regionals is not what its cracked up to be. The shinny new jet syndrome will last for about a year. If you have family and good QOL eagle or any regional might not be a good place to go. It seems like there is always a new flavor of the week when it comes to regionals. There will be a lot of cynicism but there will also be great people. I guess it depends on what your goals are and if you can afford fo pay at any regional. I am not at eagle but I am at my second regional and they are not too different from each other which leads me to believe that eagle might be similar.

Ditto, but if your goal is airline pilot, and you do not have access to moving up to multi turbine, you may have to pull the trigger on the regional.
I don't like it, but thats the name of the game.

I don't think it'd make much difference since AE is already on the balance sheets. Removing them would adjust AMR's valuation and just move that to AE. Not to mention AE only has one revenue stream. Just guessing but I think it'd come down to just selling or keeping AE>

Not true. His chances of getting to a CRJ or ERJ are pretty good as a new hire.
I just don't get some of you guys.:rolleyes:

Yea, I agree his chances are good of getting a jet as a newhire, but if he cant accept the possibility of being awarded or displaced into an ATR FO in SJU then this might not be the best place. Hope for the best, expect the worst kind of thing. If someone is dead set on a jet then go to one of the all-jet regional carriers.

There were 25 vacancies for the crj in LGA that went to new hires and they are not back filling 9 SJU FO .... Chances are you'll be on the jet. Mabey MIA or DFW ATR but I haven't seen any 50 plus vacancies for any prop bases lately. Even if by the slim chance you do get stuck on the ATR, first year pay is the same. When you year is up you'll be able to bid the CRJ and hold a line on it.(at least in LGA):cool:

How about???

Get hired now if you can. They project to hire 300 more next year and those are the ones that are going to be displaced and not you. Of course is just a "projection" so nothing is sure. :rolleyes:

I hope I can get ORD EMJ or LGA CRJ.

Life is good? Why would you want to mess with that?

How old are you?

Where do you live and want to live?

Do you have a wife? kids at home?

Are you independently wealthy or at least have a nice cash cushion and little debt?

Are you dying to be an airline pilot or just a jet pilot?

With some seniority Eagle is an ok place, but you will never get rich here. The future is quite uncertain but we'll be ok for a few years I think; like mwa says, the ability to staff our planned flying is the wildcard. A couple of years back we were unable to get enough newhires to do all the flying AA wanted us to do so we left flying uncaptured. That may very well happen again, and soon. OTOH if we can get the staffing and 180 senior captains leave in 2011 (likely at this point imo) then the next couple of years will be good. The planned divestiture is a huge unknown too, and probably will not be a good thing long term imo.

You need to be extremely introspective and exercise severe restraint on the SJS before you make the move. I've flown everything from 150s to 737s and they're all just airplanes. Some of my favorite professional flying was in Navajos, and that was after a furlough from a legacy 737.

We definitely need you though.

What if you want to be based in MIA on the ATR....how would ones chances look?

hey, want the job - take it. you get based on your seniority in class, (high number to oldest, low number to youngest) and what the company has available.
FYI Downsizing SJU by 3 planes. No displacement on the ATR, so excess pilots 20 F/O's, CRJ in DFW downsizing, no displacement 30 F/O's (about), downsizing EMJ in northeast, no displacements- 135 F/O's. Roll the dice or walk away. All these pilots are on the move.