Originally Posted by FlyingKat (Post 1100257)

I can see this playing out one of two ways.

The first way is Menke and co find a way to put all these aircraft on one certificate. They ask ALPA to slow down or halt the implementation of 11-09 and freeze everybody where they are until the integration of the certificates is complete. The only movement will be that caused by attrition and openings at each certificate.

The second way is Menke cannot find a way to get everything down to one certificate. Then I think they will ask ALPA to put a quota on how many can move and slow the process down to make it more bearable in terms of cost. Then once the award is implemented there will be restrictions in place to prevent movement between certificates.

Originally Posted by MunkyButtr (Post 1100322)

One cert requires FAA approval. The FAA was giving them ish about the Mesaba cert which is why they are surrendering it and moving everything to the Colgan cert. It would cost just as much to get everything onto one cert. Short term cost savings are now impossible in the training sector. Impossible, unless they cancel the vacancy, declare chapter 11, revisit the arbitrators award and regroup. Not happening. Moving to one cert would only cause more of a cluster and add to the train wreck. Need I say cert one more time?




CERT!

Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 1099562)

I said soon, and I haven't been wrong so far. Everything they've done so far hints at bankruptcy. Pilots WILL be taking concessions, one way or another. We will have the nicer option of staying out of bankruptcy and having our MEC decide what concessions or cuts to give from our JCBA, OR, Pinnacle will declare bankrupcty and have the BK judge force it upon us. You decide! But I still stand by my statement, that PinnaColaba will soon declare bankruptcy. It's just the beginning right now. I'll talk to you soon when it happens.

Originally Posted by FlyingKat (Post 1099842)

What is going on here is Menke needs to get rid of the infrastructure of three companies and create one coherent operation out of this mess. He hired the consultants to get the required changes he needs to get this done.

These consultants will go to our "partners" to get contracts that will allow us to operate all of our aircraft one one certificate. They will come to the pilots to get a slowdown in the 11-09 award until he can get all the aircraft on a single certificate. If he can't do this, look for concessions that will limit the ability to transfer between certificates.

These consultants will also use the threat of bankruptcy to get major concessions from the lessors at One Commerce Square as well. 1CS is costing the company 3x what they projected just so Uncle Phil could have a nice office with a 14th floor view.

Anbody who can read a balance sheet can see this company is nowhere near bankruptcy yet. It is a real possiblity later next year if the company doesn't make some changes and fast. Anybody who has been listening to Menke since he walked in the door can't be surprised by any of this.

I'll make these predictions for a year from now:

1. We will either be on one certificate or well on our way to one certificate.
2. There will be massive layoffs at One Commerce Square and on the support side. I'd say one third to one half of the employees at 1CS will be on the street by this time next year.
3. All that will be left at 1CS will be the Executive Offices, if that.
4. Shy Fly Guy will still be crying that the sky is falling.

There will be no bankruptcy as long as Menke gets the concessions he needs to stay out of BK. If he doesn't get them, then he will take the company into bankruptcy to get them late next year.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 1100341)

swing and a miss.

Originally Posted by Imapilot2 (Post 1100463)

I don't have enough fingers to count how many pilot groups were told this. They all were throwing up repeatedly over those words during the judge's bk imposed second round of cuts. Falacy.