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Originally Posted by cybourg10
(Post 69296)
Guess I should also mention that I'm a FO on the E145 out of STL so I wouldn't make a lateral move just to get 121 time. Just wondering if leaving a job with crappy pay and about a 4 yr upgrade for a job with better pay and mabye a little longer upgrade would be worth it. I don't know how long the Comair upgrade is running right now and what the chances are that they will even be in business in 2 years? Mabye the AA recalls will bring the Eagle upgrade time down to 4-5 years?
I doubt the AA recalls will do anything to help the movement at AA for sometime because of the 3000 furloughed AA pilots. I don't know how the flow back worked, but I do know this: Some of the pilots furloughed from AA went directly into the left seat of an RJ at Eagle. How that effects the recall, I don't know. Do they have to get the 2900 off the street back first, or are the flow back guys at Eagle considered part of the 3000. It's a complicated issue. A lot of guys are saying that people won't go back to AA. I beg to differ. Let the recalls start and I don't think AMR will have any problems filling seats at the Academy. Also, I didn't say make a lateral move for 121 time. If I did, I apologize. I meant make the lateral move for PIC. Joe |
Originally Posted by JetJock16
(Post 69520)
The numbers are simple guys/girls. 30 + % of the airline industry is within 5 years of 60, with Northwest & American having the largest percentages of those pilots. That means that within the next few years, as they start to retire, the conditions will dramatically improve at Eagle as well as everywhere else. American has 12K + pilots so imagine if 30% of those pilots retire in the next 5 years. That’s 3,600 pilots that will retire, subtract the 2,800 on furlough and that's a positive 800 pilots needed if they don't grow at all. And, I wonder how many of the 2800 will actually return? Mark my words; in the next 5 years the majors will be dropping there mins because of the lack of qualified pilots and the regionals will be dropping their mins to CPL hours. Upgrade will be quick at the regionals and movement to the majors will be at all time record. The only problem is if you get in at the end of the push to the majors, then upgrade will go back to 6+ years at the regionals and 12+ at the majors because of the youth. There are 120,000+ airline pilots in the industry and an estimated 36,000 of them will be retiring.
These are impressive numbers and if anyone feels that I am in error then please prove it. I have done the research and the numbers are as accurate as an estimate can be. Good Luck All! |
Heck just the main APC site clearly states that within 9 years 4000 will be retiring, numbers like that are extraordinary. Time to start meeting some American pilots if you don't know them already, would that not be the greatest thing ever!!
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even with all those AA retirements in the future, its still no guarantee for Eagle guys to move up, since theres no guaranteed flow-thru program for Eagle CA's. I actually heard mainline AA would prefer not to hire out of Eagle and will look elsewhere to get their FO's. So basically the situation at eagle wont get any better?
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As far as AA recalls being the solution to long upgrades at Eagle, I doubt it will change much. We have about 400 AA/TWA guys who flowed back to the left seat of the RJs, after they are all back at AA they will be replaced by 400 AE FOs upgraded to CA. Those 400 FOs are ones who have been here 6+ years, so I doubt they will be the type to get the 1000 PIC turbine and jump ship. Chances are that they will stay in the left seat here at AE for a long time. Mgmt knows that we have the most senior/expensive seniority list and they are trying to come up with ways to clean out the top end of our list. We hired some big name consulting company to analyze our operations and how we can be more competitive, so maybe they will find a way to solve the dilema.
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so is it true that mainline AA will not hire out of AE? i hear its out of hatred for AE guys.
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Hey Ellen. Why do you say that Comair will be out of business in a few years? The reason I ask is because a friend of mine has an interview with comair. He is furloughed from ACA/Indpendance Air. He has 7000 hours, 4 type ratings, and is flying 737's for a local company out of Louisville. He hates where he is working and is worried about being furloughed again. Is Comair really that bad? What would you do? I already recommended him at UPS, but it might take some time to get the call. Thanks in advance
Originally Posted by Ellen
(Post 69264)
Go to Eagle. Comair will be out of business within a few years if not sooner. . .
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AA hiring from Eagle really has nothing to do with hatred. That is simply an argument for the pilot groups. The bean counters on the other hand have the say. Look at it this way: AMR owns AA and Eagle. If AA hires an Eagle captain, that equals three training events for the company. One at AA, one upgrade to captain at Eagle, and one new hire at Eagle. If AA hires off the street, that equals one training event for the company.
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Originally Posted by Swedish Blender
(Post 74355)
AA hiring from Eagle really has nothing to do with hatred. That is simply an argument for the pilot groups. The bean counters on the other hand have the say. Look at it this way: AMR owns AA and Eagle. If AA hires an Eagle captain, that equals three training events for the company. One at AA, one upgrade to captain at Eagle, and one new hire at Eagle. If AA hires off the street, that equals one training event for the company.
A Regional pilot who is interested and qualified to join a major will go to any major with openings. He begin at the bottom of the pay scale. There is no economic reason for him to go to his regional's parent company - only loyalty. If AA hires an XJT guy then XJT must pay for 2 training events today. But when SWA hires the bypassed AE guy then AE has to pick up the slack. Not taking mainline new hires from your wholly owned regionals hurts the company by causing decreased morale and therefore performance. Training costs will even out. AMR can pay for three training events and improve morale, or pay for three training events and damage morale. But they're going to pay for three training events, whether the bean counters realize it or not. |
That is correct. Assuming the Eagle guy is qualified to move up to a major he will eventually. That will trigger three training events for AMR no matter whether AA hires him or hires another pilot.
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