Wingtips, EGL will not give you an ATP. You will have to earn it. Just ask a lot of the recent upgrades, its not a gimme.

Most people can't live on 40k a year because that's what all goes through their head. CANT.

It's easily feasible. It's all about how you handle your money and budgeting.

And I can bet Rick has a little more than that on his shoulders than just what hes said and STILL living comfortably on his Eagle 2nd year pay.

I care, and reason being, if Rick can do it, anybody can. Nobody's situation is going to be the same, but I can tell ya pretty darn similar.

then he does not need a pay raise as first officer at the expense of captains pay.
People should never mention if they can survive on there current pay, that is a no-no.
So you mean you can survive with your pay, because I budget, how much is the dog food cost these days and does it come in three meal a day packages.

As an AE FO, I survived as the sole source of income with a wife, son, and home. We had to be frugal, but we made it.

I'd imagine a lot of it depends on where you live too, which is part of the living frugally. Cost of living can be a huge determining factor and since pay is not adjusted based on where we live - one person living comfortably on first year pay could be way off of how another person is living.

Will the recent furloughs of 50 pilots be the last for a while, or are others in the works? In December, the number project was closer to 120.

I thought the last email from the union (for what its worth) said that mgmt would be assessing those numbers mid-may

it seemed by the email the union feels like more are to come, but have no idea as usual, and will know more mid may. Has the ORD LEC held a meeting yet?? You all in ORD should be livid.

So sad to hear that more may be on the way. The back half of this year may resemble 2008 on a smaller scale. Something's going on with the economy that's not good right now. If things were improving, we wouldn't be here. That's my view and I'm sure others will disagree.

What happened in ORD?

My understanding is the ORD chair refuses to hold a meeting where a vote may be taken for him to get the boot. Against ALPA C & B, but the bent MEC refuses to do anything about it and the whole crooked feifdom is stalling. Clearly a representational body out of control, but considering what happened in Herndon during the TWA fiasco, it seems this type of self-serving conduct is systemic.

Since no one has grown a pair and banded together and contacted a labor attorney to persue DFR, it seems they'll have a green light until it's basically too late. Sad what's become of my old stomping grounds. :confused:

for once something very accurate from this guy.

The ORD LEC will not hold a meeting, because they will most likely be recalled. The ORD LEC is 51%+ majority for the DG, Gutz clan, which is our MEC. Our MEC blows, and is a management puppet.

Also keep in mind the ORD LEC rep actually emailed all the ORD pilots and called out the names of the pilots who wanted him recalled!

If ORD LEC is recalled, they could vote to vote out DG and bring in a new MEC. DG has not flown in years, gets paid 90hr CRJ Captain pay each month plus other perks. The list goes on/on. Including they recently just tried to pass that they could keep alcoholic drinks on the tabs of union paid meals.

Best case for everyone is have ORD LEC recalled, get new reps, vote out DG, and maybe actually have a union that cares about the pilots.

Keep your ears open the next few days about AA putting in a huge order for planes at EAGLE, 70+ seats, with no regard to AA scope. They will get the planes and let the court deal with it once on property.

Would the net effect of this be the capacity would essentially stay the same, but with fewer aircraft and pilots? Sorry for asking what might be a stupid question.

just rumors down the pipeline, will need to see actual news. I also talk it back, I thought I had posted online two weeks ago, that AA/USAIR merger news was coming late last week, but I guess I never did.

You whine about accuracy and then this ?

First of all, any order for aircraft would have to be approved by the court. Confirming an order prior to the court granting AMR's 1113 motion against the APA would be a bit presumptuous and quite obnoxious, don't you think ?

Specifically, AMR is right now trying to convince the bankruptcy court that they are bargaining in good faith, but unilaterally confirming orders in violation of the contracts still in place by ordering aircraft they don't have legal right to do doesn't bolster that concept of bargaining in good faith, so it would be surprising they would be that arrogant and stupid. I do acknowledge the high-fivers on EL and TA are foaming at the mouth at the possibility though. ;)

Lastly, orders like this take time and AMR presented Eagle ALPA with term sheet only weeks ago that limits pay scales to 76-seats, not the 88-seats that the high-fivers on EL and TA are claiming. If AMR was negotiating with manufactuers for E-190's or CRJ-1000's for Eagle, they'd have included an 88-seat pay scale they could get on that 1113, instead of vague conditional language they'd have to get further approval for later.

You're the only junior F/O at Eagle I know that is convinced she has everything figured out.

What makes you think those planes would go to Eage? If they're gonna start breaking all the rules, then they could just start an altar-ego like Go Jets. A lot of trashy rumors lately.

AMR will get larger RJ's. Some will likely go to Eagle, but others to........well, others.

Remember, regardless of the 1113 for Eagle pilots, they still have a major longevity problem and awarding many of those future E-175's and/or CRJ-900's to others not only provides whipsaw capability for AMR, it allows another to underbid or equal bid Eagle due to the likelyhood they won't have maxed out 15-eyear captains and 6th year F/O's, but much cheaper labor.

Wingtips is counting her chickens before they've hatched (a common error to those new to this industry).

For once something very accurate from this girl. These are simply rumors being thrown out on the "Eagle pilot" websites and some are getting themselves in a tizzy. This post is FAR more proper as opposed to instructing everyone to "keep their ears open for news this week" and then stating what Judge Lane will be doing.

Even I wouldn't come on this forum and attempt to tell anyone what Judge Lane will do implying confident certainty. Jeez........

Or AMR could award those to another regional that will fly them cheaper.

you have been listening to the management MEC representatives. The MEC at AE does represent the management more than it represents the pilots. And ALPA national knows well.

AMR can purchase any aircart it wants of any size, it just can't have it flown under the current SCOPE/rules under tha AA pilot contract but there is nothing that stops them from purchasing the new aircart, APA hasn't agreed to pay or work rules for the 777-300 and those aircraft are scheduled to arrive in a few months, AMR is set to receive many Airbus aircraft fom the 320 family and there aren't pay rates or work rules agreed to yet! Not to mention the 787-900!

Of course there's something stopping them and that's judge Lane. I suppose if AMR files a request to spend even more money in this BK and it's granted (and they can find someone to finance such a purchase), they could move to order more aircraft. IMO, to do so now, would just make it look like they expect the Lane to grant their 1113 requests before he even rules. To get court approval, one would think among many things, AMR would have to disclose where they would be going and if not AA, then it would be in violation of CBA's currently in place and thus that would seem to give the APA credibility in their assertion AMR isn't bargaining in good faith just when they need it most (prior to their argument before the court the week after next).

They WILL order some new larger RJ's, I just think it's premature to expect that this week.

I am with you that with the while high fivers and making stupid comments, but neither you or I would be surpised if AMR makes such a request in court. AMR managment has been extremely blunt about what they want and an AMR exec was quoted in court this week stating that one of the biggest reasons they filled BK was to null the APA contract to expand code shaing and outsourcing. As far as the RJ order, today AMR managment is holding a meeting with the current fleet managers at Eagle to discuss the proposals they have received from Bimbardier and EMB! But to go as far as saying that an announcement will be presented might be a reach but I wouldn't be surprised.

Well, AMR IS in court this week for the sole purpose of seeking to abrogate mainline contracts via 1113 are they not ?

At any rate, I doubt they'd make an aircraft selection within 2 days of discussing the issue with fleet managers. I'd think they'd have to discuss the issue more then just 1 day to ensure they make the right choice. At any rate, I'd hope you accept the fact that for each new E-175 or CRJ-900, it's 10 slots less for new-hires (including 253/824's) at AA and thus the likelyhood of your finding yourself at Eagle 10 years from now and for all intents and purposes a career RJ pilot FAR more likely. Yes, there are other carriers, but AE has 1000 senior pilots prolly too old to compete for the limited slots of the future and as we shrink and AA feeders expand (multiple), Eagle contracts and F/O time in a newer, larger and shinier RJ isn't likely to get one very far. The new shiny RJ's will be great for a year or two and then you'll most likely have a website like RAH after the RJ hangover kicks in. I'd also prepare for the sting of watching many of the RJ's go elsewhere and Eagle not maintaining it's current size as a result. If you're an F/O now, it's very possible you'll still be one in 5 years as the fleet and operator transition occurs. The high-fivers are convinced a glorious utopia is heading their way with a Christmas tree dangling full of of 100-seat jets with good schedules, good pay and retirement nestled under the tree and are breakdancing and moonwalking thru the terminals. The 1113 express for Eagle hasn't left the station yet, but unfortunately you can rest assured others will soon get to watch your gutting with amusement as well.

BTW, have you considered the fact that some in Eagle management may be trumpeting this faster then reality simply to gain more capitulation to the 1113 term sheet ?

Eagle woudn't lead it's wide-eyed pilots around with a milk bone would they ?

Naaahhhhh. :cool:

For a minute I thought that one could reason with you! I will not sit here and speculate what AMR will do because AMR hasn't shown a plan! They have mentioned their intentions are to bust SCOPE, increase code share and divestify their domestic feed. There is very little that us labor as a whole can do about it. The large majority of Eagle pilots aren't exited about larger airplanes here at Eagle and that APA is the position they are in, but you will have a minority who will troll on these online forums. Please stop attaching other when they just try to reason with you, even tho that vast majority of regional pilots want to be at an airline that flies larger equipment with improved work rules and higher wages we are not all exited for you to loose your job!

Well AA couldn't sell eagle so the next best thing would be to grow them. Get them flying longer routes with bigger airplanes. It's just an evolution of regional airlines of the past.
Beech 1900 to
Crj 200 to
Crj 700 to
Crj 900 to
Crj 1000.

It's gonna happen. AA pilots maybe able to hold ground on scope but I put that at about a 10% chance.

I think you need to examine your current level of hypersensitivity. I've stated before the high-fivers at Eagle are a minority as far as those who enjoy AA pilot pain, but realistically in my last years there the majority wanted larger RJ's and more RJ's so they either could improve their income or get their PIC.

I wasn't attacking you. My statements in that post about the realities heading for this profession (and Eagle) I stand by, painful as it is for some to acknowledge.

Not sure what part of your post was trying to "reason with me" as it appeared simply as another opinion just like mine. We at AA will lose and ultimately, so will most of those at AE.

Agreed. RJ's (and regional carriers) comprise 50% of the domestic market. That will grow and current legacy carrier will shrink.

That was my point.

It's more then clear that the majority of current pilots at regional carriers will stay there for the remainder of their careers. The benefits of retirements at mainline carriers (which won't become significant for another 5 years - provided they don't increase the retirement age to 67 or 70) will be offset by mainline contraction as more and more of that flying is given to regionals.

E-190's and CRJ-1000's can do almost all the domestic work and thus it will be the final stop for many. AMR's 1113 for Eagle has captains maxing out at about 90K/year but the methodology ensures it stays there for at least 7 years.

90K in 2019 is equivalent to about $65K in 2012 and that is the end stop for the majority. That's why I say those who are watching the AA debacle and are looking short-term are missing the REAL message to this profession.

The "Walmartization" of this profession has arrived and amazingly, its arrival is being cheered by many who see only what they want to see. Based on that alone, it cannot fail and won't.

How will Mesa come into play if US Air and AMR merge ?

Who flies what, etc ? When its time to furlough (as the new one-merged-entity), what group gets shafted first ?

If there is a merger between AA and US Airways, could Eagle, AWAC, PSA, and Piedmont be faced with a similar situation to the one affecting Pinnacle? I know no one owns all four, but would a merged airline need the capacity all four provide? Maybe, but maybe not.

AWAC is not owned by USAIR! This will take years to pan out, by then, regional feed will go to who ever can staff it, your about see a massive shortage of new hires for the RJs. They will have to raise first year FO pay, and thats not an option without a contract, and everyone will want some pie. Its about to become a VERY rocky road come next AUG, and even more so the following spring with FT.DT.

My bet says a lot of regionals will dissolve thru merger or elimination and the 50-seat and smaller RJ's and turboprops will be replaced with larger RJ's. Since the majors won't have heavy retirements for years and they will be contracting anyways, there will be few places for regional pilots to go.

I think they'll have no problem filling the RJ seats for the next 3-5 years as the regional industry shakes out. As some carriers downsize or disappear others will expand, thus many junior will be starting over elsewhere. Pinnacle is already following Comair and which carriers are the players and which aren't has still to play out.

$5/hour more for new-hires won't be creating a stampede for the right seat of an RJ and $40-50/K year regional new-hires won't happen as that would be more then most majors who can spread their cost over more revenue producing seats of larger aircraft.

Your not seeing each market served. Many markets served by RJ are old turbo prop markets, such as ALB-EWR. This will not go to a 70 seat jet. Same with IAD-ABE, or SFO-SAC.

Also a vast majority of the 70+ seat RJs are flying routes previously served by 737-500/300 (90-120 seats), or 727, or DC-9. We have also seen an increase in frequency in these places, while cutting capacity. IE 2 727 (250 total seats) is now 3 CRJ 700. (200 seats). That is just odd ball numbers but I think you get my point.

I do not see routes like MIA-TLH going to a 70 seat jet, or getting dropped. Same with GNV/NAS/GGT/PNS/BHM etc. They will remain 50 seat RJs, till something makes more sense. The frequency they have now works for the hub/spoke system they run.

Same with LGA-RDU, LGA-CLT, LGA-YYZ, JFK-CLE, JFK-CVG. No other airlines really fit this route, but they feed the INTL travel.

If your predictions came true, it would mean your out on the street, since you feel more flying will be farmed out. However lucky for you, your wrong. With retirements, and lack of incoming pilots, the upward movement will be fairly steady for 15 years to come. The regional business will shrink off, as they see their staffing costs skyrocket. A319s on a B scale will more likely be the case at mainline. I think the airline owned regionals will grow starting in 2 years, as they can offer stability. The Pinnacle situation is just step 1 of a long road. Look what that did to United. Republic maybe next, which could really shake things up since CHQ flys for EVERYONE.

I dont think they will. If it's not dropped altogther, they will likely go to a turboprop, like the Q400 which can carry more revenue then a 37-50 seat RJ, for half the expense and do so as fast and comfortable considering the stage length altitudes flown.

They're flying a mix of routes like that, stand-alone new markets and also mixing in with larger aircraft. Larger RJ's DO have a place and as the global increase in flying accelerates and the airspace limits, it's one reason why larger capacity is necessary as long as a route is "right-sized" in both capacity and frequency.

Again, look for those routes to have a mix of aircraft size, either all regional of various sizes and propulsion or a mix of regional/mainline. If they cannot support at least three flights a day of at least Q400 size (or perhaps ATR in the south), then I'd expect them to be dropped. If dropped, another start-up code share with some refurbished SAAB's or something might be an answer for that market as a code-share, but many analysts expect many smaller towns and markets to lose air service in the future due to economics.

Any number of scenarios in the future could put me "out on the street". Considering the term sheet, if that becomes reality for an extended period of time, it may be ME putting MYSELF on the street to seek new adventures. The older you get, the more you realize how short life is. Retirements in any great numbers are 5 years off. Considering the pilot forcast, I wouldn't be surprised to see age 65 increased to age 67 or 70 if one can pass a stringent physical (probably including a cognitive test). When big businesses profits are threatened corporate power has proven to easily control governmental roadblocks (auto industry, banks and airlines, etc.)

By your own admission, you're now saying the regional airline business will shrink off, yet every indication says it has no intention of doing that (AMR certainly isn't) and instead simply morphing to larger RJ's. Since these are more economically viable and can even do MORE of the domestic operations, it only makes sense that contracting mainlines with their higher costs will not provide the escape rope for most regional pilots and thus the majority should expect to spend many years there, if not their ENTIRE careers. The regional industry WILL indeed go through its own "shake-up" via consolidation and elimination. U and UAL for example have a rediculous amount of feed providers and both will almost certainly condense that down to just enough to provide a competitive whipsaw model to ensure labor costs don't spiral higher one dime more then necessary.

I am not going to try and debate you about it. Your too caught up in yourself to see the reality and hypocritical irony of this.

Mesa is run like trash, just like PNCL. They both will be gone in 3 years because they can not make money. Mesa is a trash product, and most airlines are trying or have dumped their flying. As the RJ industry becomes harder to run, more places will see CH 11 and maybe CH 7. I think Republic is next. This is just making the whole owned RJs a better idea, as they seem to be well run, and are becoming more and more economical.

Disagreement with you is equal to being "caught up in myself" ?

Ummm, okay. :rolleyes:

You see my opinion as "unreal" and thus myself a "hypocrite" embracing "irony". Well, for once I don't know how to respond to that string of connections.

I understand though. ;)

I'm not sure I understand your logic. You're claiming that a wholly owned regional is LESS likely to be BK, yet AMR and therefore AE are BK. Also, it appears that AE's performance numbers in 2012 were terrible. Even Mesa beat AE. So how is it that a wholly owned Regional seems to be well run?

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/...145778535.html

Isn't the ultimate answer to all of this that the legacy carriers just cut out the middle men, the regionals, and make RJ's part of their wholly owned fleet?

I know there are issues of scope and this isn't going to happen anytime soon, but why wouldn't Delta or United or the potential AA/USAir just decide to fly their own RJ's and staff them own their own pilots?

Maybe that model isn't feasible due to existing contracts and scope, but it would make their own forecasting and scheduling much easier. It might mean a reduction in jobs, but it might also lead to higher pay and higher time applicants.

Right now, regionals are at the whims of their bigger counterparts. How can one make projections on growth or hiring if it's all dependant on month to month dealing with the legacies?