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Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189410)
That was always a misnomer. 2012 was (is) the year retirements at the legacies begin. It really doesn't pick up pace until 2013/2014 but 2012 is the beginning.
Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone. The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot. 2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once. Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen. |
Originally Posted by Senior Skipper
(Post 1189682)
1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.
2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once. Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen. |
No shortage. But if there was... it would be to fill positions flying expensive jets, with heaps of responsibility, for max duty hours for around $45,000. No thanks. I'll cash out.
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regarding the "shortgage", we will also have hundreds/thousands of current military pilots, post Iraq/post Afghan wars, (wars winding down) looking for jobs too. Just throwing that out there.
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Originally Posted by johnso29
(Post 1189698)
Of course the dates were pushed back. Age 65.
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Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189389)
I don't get your reverse rationalization...or your numbers. I suggest looking at them again.
There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough. I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s. Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry. As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it. If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s. Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs. If only 152s had air conditioning... |
Originally Posted by FlyJSH
(Post 1189740)
Going with your hyperbole, one 747 is bad, three 737s are better, but a hundred 402s is great!
If only 152s had air conditioning... I'll let you have your fun though. It makes to sense for me to break it down for you but here is a very quick stab: Obviously if the demand between a city pair is 300 passengers per hour until 1700 and then 200 per hour until 2200 a 402 wouldn't make much sense. Neither would an outbound A380 at 0800 and an inbound 747 at 2100. Throw in the cost of fuel per mile flown along with intangibles such as aircraft desirability ( AA's and Delta's MD-80s are recent examples of undesired aircraft by the flying public, anything with a prop has already been for a few years now) and you can see how it is no hyperbole, but reality. |
Originally Posted by Senior Skipper
(Post 1189682)
1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.
2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once. Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen. Go back to my original post and look for anything that is opinion. None of it is. The only thing I don't know (or anybody knows) is what exactly will be the result. But the fact thal ALL those factors are converging for the first time is beyond denial at this point. |
Originally Posted by embraer
Throw in the cost of fuel per mile flown along with intangibles such as aircraft desirability ( AA's and Delta's MD-80s are recent examples of undesired aircraft by the flying public, anything with a prop has already been for a few years now) and you can see how it is no hyperbole, but reality.
Airlines don't give a damn about "aircraft desirability" to the public, they care about economics - acquisition cost and operating cost. MD80s are going bye-bye not because they are "undesired aircraft by the flying public", but because they are getting old & expensive to maintain and burn more fuel than newer aircraft with similar capacity. See: Delta adding MD90s while shedding 50-seat CRJs. See also: UniCal maintaining and growing their Q400 feed |
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
(Post 1189758)
You really can't be this naive.
Airlines don't give a damn about "aircraft desirability" to the public, they care about economics - acquisition cost and operating cost. MD80s are going bye-bye not because they are "undesired aircraft by the flying public", but because they are getting old & expensive to maintain and burn more fuel than newer aircraft with similar capacity. See: Delta adding MD90s while shedding 50-seat CRJs. See also: UniCal maintaining and growing their Q400 feed The flying public is not as stupid as we think..in particular business travelers which are our key customers. They understand differences in aircraft and have a particular distaste for some of them (MD-80s, ATRs, etc..) They WILL avoid flying on them whenever possible. If your airline is flying around in old MD-80s while your competition has newer, more comfortable A320s and 737s you will lose customers. Just ask AA. They refused to accept this for years (among other things) and now it has all come back to bite them. |
The only shortage I see coming is in my pants.
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I guess you really are that naive...
If an airline is flying a bunch of MD80s and other airlines are flying newer 737/A320s, you are getting beat because of the operational costs of the airframes, not passengers booking into or away from them. I think most folks would say a E170/175 is more comfortable to passengers than a CRJ-700/900...so why have the 700/900 continued to sell? Because they are more fuel-efficient and economical to operate than the E-Jets. Besides, Allegiant doesn't have any problem getting customers and turning a profit flying "undesirable" MD80s... |
Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189761)
They WILL avoid flying on them whenever possible. If your airline is flying around in old MD-80s while your competition has newer, more comfortable A320s and 737s you will lose customers.
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Originally Posted by RunnerMark
(Post 1189766)
The only shortage I see coming is in my pants.
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Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189761)
Oh Boilerup...now who is being naive? You sound like AA's management who refused to see the writing on the wall throughout the 2000s.
The flying public is not as stupid as we think..in particular business travelers which are our key customers. They understand differences in aircraft and have a particular distaste for some of them (MD-80s, ATRs, etc..) They WILL avoid flying on them whenever possible. If your airline is flying around in old MD-80s while your competition has newer, more comfortable A320s and 737s you will lose customers. Just ask AA. They refused to accept this for years (among other things) and now it has all come back to bite them. However, to think that US airlines give a damn about comfort is downright silly. You really think AA announced the order of 737's and A320's because they are more comfortable? Is that really what it came down to- the more comfortable airplane? The fact that they may be more comfortable is merely a bonus. If we were talking about comfortable airplanes, none of the RJ's would be flying. Your optimism is good. I'm not trying to destroy it. No doubt it helps you get through the 5 sector days. Despite what we've said, I'm sure I speak for all of us when I say I hope you're right. At the same time, a bit of reality won't hurt either. I fly with 20+ yr regional captains who "got in right before the shortage of 19xx." |
Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189761)
Oh Boilerup...now who is being naive? You sound like AA's management who refused to see the writing on the wall throughout the 2000s.
The flying public is not as stupid as we think..in particular business travelers which are our key customers. They understand differences in aircraft and have a particular distaste for some of them (MD-80s, ATRs, etc..) They WILL avoid flying on them whenever possible. If your airline is flying around in old MD-80s while your competition has newer, more comfortable A320s and 737s you will lose customers. Just ask AA. They refused to accept this for years (among other things) and now it has all come back to bite them. There rumblings of the Age 70 rumor are already stirring..... |
Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189761)
Oh Boilerup...now who is being naive? You sound like AA's management who refused to see the writing on the wall throughout the 2000s.
The flying public is not as stupid as we think..in particular business travelers which are our key customers. They understand differences in aircraft and have a particular distaste for some of them (MD-80s, ATRs, etc..) They WILL avoid flying on them whenever possible. If your airline is flying around in old MD-80s while your competition has newer, more comfortable A320s and 737s you will lose customers. Just ask AA. They refused to accept this for years (among other things) and now it has all come back to bite them. |
I wonder how the forums look like at railway companies.... Maybe I will change careers and grab the helms of a locomotive.. hmm
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Originally Posted by AviatorAl04
(Post 1190068)
I wonder how the forums look like at railway companies.... Maybe I will change careers and grab the helms of a locomotive.. hmm
Lasted just a few months. Now he is CFO of a welding company, and about the happiest I've ever seen him. |
Originally Posted by chignutsak
(Post 1190015)
Hmmm, I commute quite a bit on MD-80's. Sit in front and back. I can't recall a single person complaining about the aircraft. I like the 1 in 5 chance of a middle seat, also it is quiet (up front).
They are just as comfortable on the inside as the 737 (except maybe for noise in the way back), and fewer people get middle seats. One big perk that I've noticed when commuting is that they don't tend to run out of overhead space easily either, because they've got two sides worth of overheads but one less column of people. Now, if I have to jumpseat up front I'll take the A-319s over the Mad Dogs any time. |
Not bad at all!!
Happy for him! |
Originally Posted by Senior Skipper
(Post 1189682)
1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.
2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once. Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen. Follow me here for a minute. Close your eyes. Cast your mind back to 2007. Do you see every major in America hiring multiple classes of new hires every month? December, 2007. Congress passes the age 65 law. Now all the old fellas get an extra 5 years in the left seat. The hiring windows at the majors SLAM SHUT, with the realization that just about every one of those 60 year olds is staying to 65. Now, add 5 years to December 2007 and you get December 2012! How the hell is this so hard for you? YES, 2012 IS THE LATEST DATE!!! IT'S BEEN THE LATEST DATE SINCE DECEMBER 2007!! DO YOU GET IT YET???????? |
With the exception of AA, can you name ONE other major airline that wasn't hiring like crazy in the middle of 2007?? Just one??
Why would we see anything different in 2012? The exact same retirement schedule is happening starting in December! |
Originally Posted by embraer
(Post 1189074)
This is going to be funny, and I don't care.
Every single time a person points to FACTS indicating the POTENTIAL for a pilot shortage in the next few years, some jackwagon will pop up with 5th grade humor dismissing the whole thing. Of course, we get the always classic: "I've been hearing about a pilot shortage since XXXXX" So, for all of YOU out there... Riddle me this. When in the past 30 years have any of the following been true: Military pipeline all but dried up. Fewer people becoming military pilots and even fewer leaving for jobs with the airlines. Professional AMERICAN flight students going the way of the dodo bird. Just ask any CFI of any major or medium sized flight school how many AMERICAN students they have pursuing a Commercial. Federal law establishing a MINIMUM number of flight hours required before being hired by an airline. No reducing minimums down to 250 TT when you have trouble hiring. Impending MASSIVE retirements at all the Legacies. No ifs or buts on this one. The numbers are plain black and white. The vast majority of pilots flying for the legacies today will be retired within the next 10 years. The bulk of which will begin leaving next year. Add all of that to the fact that air travel is INCREASING year after year. Unless some of you believe we will go back to horses and steam trains it is safe to say that air travel is here to stay. Even more than that...it is projected to keep growing. Particularly international travel. So, point to me when in the past 30 or so years have all the factors come together at once? Many have never even existed before. There was a time when an F-16 pilot was counting down the days to make the jump to AA, Delta, US Air, etc... for six figures. That was called the 80s. Shoot, let's even call it the 90s. Not so anymore. There was also a time when students were lining up outside flight schools and aviation colleges to pursue a career with the airlines. Gone. If any of you think differently I suggest speaking with a current CFI. The days of dropping minimums to a wet Commercial? LONG GONE. The Federal Government has stepped in and set a floor. ATP or 1,000 if you did ALL your flight training at an aviation college. I am not even presenting this thread as a conversation starter. I know 80% of this board has their default setting set to doom and gloom regardless of anything else. I just couldn't bite my tounge anymore. I'll wrap this up by saying one more thing: Word to your mother! http://joshlane1.files.wordpress.com...04_468x762.jpg |
.... Airline Stocks Tumble After Delta Air Lines Trims Capacity More Than Expected DAL UAL RYAAY - Investors.com
Yay...Can you say "pilot shortage?" :mad: |
Originally Posted by block30
(Post 1190312)
.... Airline Stocks Tumble After Delta Air Lines Trims Capacity More Than Expected DAL UAL RYAAY - Investors.com
Yay...Can you say "pilot shortage?" :mad: Everyone is a loser today, except SWA... |
HA! The original poster IS right...there IS a shortage! :eek: FOX News - Top Stories - Farmers Blame Immigration Issues for Labor Shortage - Page 1 of 3
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Originally Posted by aussieflyboy
(Post 1190296)
What the heck are you talking about?? The latest date?
Follow me here for a minute. Close your eyes. Cast your mind back to 2007. Do you see every major in America hiring multiple classes of new hires every month? December, 2007. Congress passes the age 65 law. Now all the old fellas get an extra 5 years in the left seat. The hiring windows at the majors SLAM SHUT, with the realization that just about every one of those 60 year olds is staying to 65. Now, add 5 years to December 2007 and you get December 2012! How the hell is this so hard for you? YES, 2012 IS THE LATEST DATE!!! IT'S BEEN THE LATEST DATE SINCE DECEMBER 2007!! DO YOU GET IT YET???????? 2. Age 65 was one problem back in 2007. There were others. One minor problem was the price of oil. 2007 wasn't the first shortage either. Your father heard about an impending pilot shortage. Your grandfather heard the same story. Maybe one day your children will hear about the pilot shortage. In case I'm being too subtle for you, every few years I hear "there's going to be a pilot shortage next year". Without fail, something always happens to negate the supposed shortage. We all want a shortage to happen, because it means we'll be able to move up and on to something better. I fear that we've been feeding ourselves this lie for so long now, that we actually believe this BS. If we want to make things better in the industry, we need to take action instead of waiting on some "pilot shortage". |
Mark my words age 70 will pass! then age 75... besides to the original Op there may be no new certs being issued, but plenty of those(like myself) who are now sitting on the outside looking in and may consider coming back if the stars align.
Current regional peeps get to go mainline, regionals downsize\get larger aircraft and get filled by a has-been like me. There goes your pilot shortage at the regional level. |
Originally Posted by Rnav
(Post 1190477)
Mark my words age 70 will pass! then age 75... besides to the original Op there may be no new certs being issued, but plenty of those(like myself) who are now sitting on the outside looking in and may consider coming back if the stars align.
Current regional peeps get to go mainline, regionals downsize\get larger aircraft and get filled by a has-been like me. There goes your pilot shortage at the regional level. If I live to those ripe old ages I be darn if I am still working for any airline. I would either work part-time as a charter pilot or fly for fun like I should have visualized in the first place. |
If I live to those ripe old ages I be darn if I am still working for any airline |
Is DT still instructing at the sim? That guy was awesome and sooooo funny!
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