To those whose heads are buried in the sand
 

This is going to be funny, and I don't care.

Every single time a person points to FACTS indicating the POTENTIAL for a pilot shortage in the next few years, some jackwagon will pop up with 5th grade humor dismissing the whole thing.

Of course, we get the always classic: "I've been hearing about a pilot shortage since XXXXX"

So, for all of YOU out there... Riddle me this.

When in the past 30 years have any of the following been true:

Military pipeline all but dried up. Fewer people becoming military pilots and even fewer leaving for jobs with the airlines.

Professional AMERICAN flight students going the way of the dodo bird. Just ask any CFI of any major or medium sized flight school how many AMERICAN students they have pursuing a Commercial.

Federal law establishing a MINIMUM number of flight hours required before being hired by an airline. No reducing minimums down to 250 TT when you have trouble hiring.

Impending MASSIVE retirements at all the Legacies. No ifs or buts on this one. The numbers are plain black and white. The vast majority of pilots flying for the legacies today will be retired within the next 10 years. The bulk of which will begin leaving next year.

Add all of that to the fact that air travel is INCREASING year after year. Unless some of you believe we will go back to horses and steam trains it is safe to say that air travel is here to stay. Even more than that...it is projected to keep growing. Particularly international travel.

So, point to me when in the past 30 or so years have all the factors come together at once? Many have never even existed before.

There was a time when an F-16 pilot was counting down the days to make the jump to AA, Delta, US Air, etc... for six figures. That was called the 80s. Shoot, let's even call it the 90s.

Not so anymore. There was also a time when students were lining up outside flight schools and aviation colleges to pursue a career with the airlines.

Gone. If any of you think differently I suggest speaking with a current CFI.

The days of dropping minimums to a wet Commercial? LONG GONE. The Federal Government has stepped in and set a floor. ATP or 1,000 if you did ALL your flight training at an aviation college.

I am not even presenting this thread as a conversation starter. I know 80% of this board has their default setting set to doom and gloom regardless of anything else.

I just couldn't bite my tounge anymore. I'll wrap this up by saying one more thing:

Word to your mother!

http://joshlane1.files.wordpress.com...04_468x762.jpg

There will be a shortage. All the FOs waiting to upgrade will get their shots. It'll still be years before a current regional FO see the right seat at a major. Many junior to mid level regional CAs will have their shot at the majors. At least we will be moving the the right direction *knock on wood.

You're absolutely right. There's a shortage coming, and there will be massive hiring at mainline carriers to offset retirements and (possibly) growth at the majors while the regionals shrink. On the other hand, you'll get hired into a major job that has less than half the earning potential it did 10 years ago. That "brass ring" will tarnish within the first two years when you realize the career you hoped for isn't a career anymore. It's just a job. I commend you for going out on your own and earning a degree without Daddy's money. I did that myself and I know how hard it is. I also know how valuable that made my education to me. Automation has greatly reduced the skill set needed for this job, and the mediocre advances we are making beyond bankruptcy contracts are the proof. This "profession" has forever been reset to a much lower bar. If that non-aviation degree is in something marketable, I highly recommend a career change.

- Disappointed regional to major guy.

For the sake of my already too invested career decision and overall mental health, I hope you are right.

FFD has it right. The "golden handshake" doesn't lead to a pot of gold, only a regional with bigger jets.

I bet the FO at EK, QATAR, China, Japan, Korea will not,write the same paragraph with a 10k check every month.

Then I would encourage the OP to pursue that avenue before he puts down roots and starts having children. My buds at EK who took that job and left families behind aren't loving life.

If EK works for you, that's great. OTOH, if we've gotten to the point that we're talking about contract jobs in the arseholes of the world as being a better alternative, then we've already lost... for good.

This profession is in the toilet. Go to Dubai or Seoul, or go use your degree for a stable job. Your choice.

ps. You might want to ask an EK FO how much it costs to eat lunch and pay rent before you get all beside yourself about how big the monthly paycheck is.

I agree, those guys are making big money for a reason. They have to live halfway around the world in a country that cares about them as much as we care about our friends from south of the border. How the hell are you supposed to raise a family without dragging them along with you? It's madness.

the new guys are all eyes wide open, shortage is on the way. The guys who have been slapped and beaten and missed the late 90s window, are forever doomed and hoping their misery has company. Thats this website in a nutshell.

Amen brother. Which is why I am sitting pretty with 22 years to go.
Let the retirements begin...get out my seat!!

Sled :cool:

You are a glass is half full kind of guy :). Just like that ATP Cliff on these forums....always, always upbeat.

Embraer, you seem to have a fairly....shall we say, aggressive, or 'come get some' attitude towards this issue...just curious, why?

Also, I thought that most airlines were *reducing* capacity/total flights. Reference American mainline's solution to their pilots calling in sick too much lately: reduce flights! :eek:

If a shortage does crop up, I think that speaks to several factors, but not least of which is the decline in pay, QOL, and stability for professional pilots. If I seem negative, I apologize, I am actually pretty easy going in person....my frustration is seeing our toil to become pilots and the sacrifices we make to sustain ourselves as professional pilots aren't being compensated fairly. (generally speaking).

I imagine we all know the testimony Captain Sullenberger gave to congress on the current state of professional aviation. I do believe his thoughts and words were measured, thoughtful, and ultimately the summation of years of experience.

My sincere hope is that through communication we can more easily band together as one pilot group to help end some shady industry practices, and bring about more sustainable, liveable compensation.

The OP is going to be in for a real disappointment. It doesn't surprise me the viewpoint is coming from a RJ FO, god only knows they need hope and change to believe in.

What you don't include in your "when was the last time in 30 years..." speech are the following:

*When was the last time in 30 years that oil stayed at and projected to stay at $95-$140 per barrel?

*When was the last time legacies merged together, killing names like TWA, NWA, AWA, Continental, etc.?

*When was the last time a legacy liquidated?


The future retirement problem will easily self-address itself if:

1. A legacy liquidates.
2. More mergers continue... think AA/US Air and then some.
3. Fleet types are reduced in numbers, with an increase in seats available (aka, replacing DC9s and MD88s with 737-900s).
4. Regionals liquidate altogether.

And keep in mind, IF it ever gets that that bad, the majors (through the ATA) will get the law changed that their own pilot ab-initio are exempt from the ATP rule, and you will see exactly what happens at foreign airlines like Singapore, Malaysian, etc. Ab-initio pilots will fill the cockpits. That expense will be paid for by the airline. Just like at the foreign carriers, the airline hires you with 0 pilot experience and then trains you and eventually you end up on the line. The competition for that is STIFF at foregin carriers. Once that happens here, the shortage will end. People will line up in droves for ab-initio programs offered by Delta, American, and United.... which will be the only legacies in the future.

I hate to be a downer but any number of things can happen that could set the industry back years. In no important order or likelihood:

More mainline mergers, overall reduction in mainline capacity (happening already), terrorist attack, oil spikes higher than it is, multi pilot license, regional liquidates, scope loss (either willingly or by bankruptcy), cabotage, JV's and code shares at the majors, and years down the road - drones and possibly single pilot operations (unlikely but still possible in 10-20 years)

To the OP-

Not trying to be negative, but if you truly believe that all the stars will align and scope will not be relaxed, mainline capacity will not be reduced, carveouts will not be adopted, and mainline pay will not only maintain, but also adjust for inflation and at extremely top heavy levels... well maybe you are the one with your head in the sand.

There will be a shortage, but it will not be of qualified applicants, it will be of applicants at jobs that more experienced pilots are not willing to take, i.e. RJ FO positions.

Airline pilots are taken advantage of because they fall in love with taking flight. You won't meet an accountant that heads to Wall Street for pleasure on his days off like an airline pilot heads to Sun n' Fun on his vacation.

Call me cynical :rolleyes:

I love how guys say "if it doesnt work out here ill just go to EK" meanwhile every pilot ive met who interviewed there (CA and Fo) has been turned down.

All shortages eventually self-correct, but sometimes there is a window of opportunity to profit from even a temporary supply/demand mismatch. This occurs when you catch the very beginning of the shortage and move up, safely out of the most vulnerable zone, before the correction kicks in. Then it may be too costly to replace you with someone else, even if they are "lower-priced". Unfortunately, that timing requires a good deal of luck, because what pilots have to sell is a very perishable commodity.

At EK, considering you will spend less time in Dubai, the cost of food is extremely cheap. Remember these are oil producing nations. Also, EK pays for housing. Thank you very much.

I'm sure there will be a 'shortage.'

But to what extent? is the question.

I'm by no means a doom-and-gloomer, but there's an awful lot of area between having your 'head buried in the sand' and having rainbows bursting out of your posterior.

There will ***NEVER*** be a shortage of qualified pilots (defined as holding an ATP with at least some multi-turbine PIC experience) for the 'best' aviation jobs, because historically (even through the last 'lost decade') they provide superior compensation and quality of life.

This means Delta, SWA, FedEx, UPS, Fortune 100 corporate jobs, etc.

Jobs that can't, don't or won't provide superior compensation and quality of life (ie. regionals) will struggle to recruit new pilots and/or retain existing pilot talent. THAT is where the 'pilot shortage' will be.

I hope the most optimistic among us are correct, and there is a gigantic sucking sound created as the top of the pilot pool retires, providing career movement & progression for every segment of the professional piloting industry.

I certainly wouldn't bet my personal or financial future on that possibility, however...

Cabotage alone is enough to solve this pilot shortage. Airline management isn't stupid and they have the deep pockets to lobby and buy politicians. What do you think will happen to executive pay if they double capacity overnight by codesharing or merging with emirates/qatar/British airways.... That is how I know it will happen. It doesn't matter about us or our careers because we have no voice and instead bicker over the scraps. Your goal should be to get to a major and end outsourcing. The guys at the majors today are tripping over a dollar to pick up a penny with scope.

I believe the last time Delta's hiring window opened, their server crashed because it received too many applications; Tens of thousands for only a few hundred positions. Management has effectively moved the shortage to the lowest paying jobs, while the highest paid jobs experience wage arbitrage due to the flood of applicants from the lower paying jobs.

There will be a massive pilot shortage in the future, but it won't matter unless there is scope recapture at mainline.

There will never be a shortage of pilots at the majors. Delta, American, Fedex, SWA, you name whoever you want, those companies have a pool of thousands upon thousands of qualified regional pilots ready to come over at a drop of a hat. Plus, its not like every guy at the majors will be retiring all at once in the year 2017. It will take years to dry up the entire pool of qualified or willing RJ guys. All the while more pilots gaining experience somewhere, doing anything to finally get a major job. The majors will never have a hard time getting pilots, the regionals will...

10K a month won't get you very far in a lot of those areas.

+1

From the numbers I've seen, I'd say the 'majors' will be ok for qualified applicants though the next 10 years. That doesn't include any shrinking/consolidation. It is the regionals that will have problems in the shorter term.

My opinion is that management at the majors will use the unique "opportunity" offered by retirements to adjust capacity and tweak models, thus adding cheap labor at the bottom and finally providing the vehicle to slash 50-seat feed. Heck, management is collectively salivating at the mere thought of massive retirements.....

"Tell me about the pilot shortage, George!"

"An’ live off the fatta the lan’," Lennie shouted. "An’ have mainline jobs. Go on, George! Tell about what we’re gonna have in the cockpit and about the pilot shortage and about the Boeings and the Airbussesess, and how thick the our wallets will be. Tell about that George."

(Apologies to John Steinbeck)

I don't get your reverse rationalization...or your numbers. I suggest looking at them again.

There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.

I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s.

Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.

As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it.

If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s.

Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs.

I have friends whom teach at ER, FIT, FSA etc...the man hit the nail on the head. Not hardly an American based student to be found among any of them...very very few!

I believe the industry still has good and bad times to go through, and will always be a roller coaster in general, just like trucking - hell its transportation nuff said.

But we pilots with many years ahead of us - staying the course after investing 100s of thousands of dollars, tears, sweat, and blood, I foresee some seats opening up for us all, and there will be a shortage to an extent! Those of us primed and ready for seats to open are in the best positions! You guys and gals out there still teaching at this point are too!

To those retiring and opening up seats in the years to come, sincerely, thanks for your service! Hope your retirements are everything I hope mine becomes someday and then some. You will always be our brothers and sisters of the sky life! Especially to those of you who remember where you came from, and helped some young pilot along the way. You truly get my thanks! I sure have had my share of help along the way via some old pros! I hope those of us whom come after you can do the same!

I choose to remain optimistic, I love to fly, and will take my punches as they come along with what I love to do most in life!

FWIW, back in 2009-2010, everybody was saying that by 2012, there would be a pilot shortage. Well we're almost half way through the year and I don't see any signs of a "shortage".

I wonder what this thread is going to look like in 3 years when we look back at it. Is poster embraer going to to be hailed as a prophet, or ridiculed as a fool? Time will tell.

That was always a misnomer. 2012 was (is) the year retirements at the legacies begin. It really doesn't pick up pace until 2013/2014 but 2012 is the beginning.

Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone.

The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot.

^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^

No one seems to see the writing on the wall. Pay closer attention.

I don't really know 2012 was/is supposed to be the shortage year, but rather the year hiring starts spoolin' up. What have we got? Fed Ex at 16/month? Eagle's gang busters hiring turned into furloughs, Pinnacle/Colgan's turned into furloughs, American mainline is potentially furloughing. Oil and the economy are bad news bears. Not sure how long this oil plunge will last. 'Twould be nice if oil remains low.

Also, kudos on knowing the difference between moot and mute. *Up Top!* (Barney Stinson, anyone?)

[QUOTEThere are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.
[/QUOTE]

Embarer, Its not like 100% of all major pilots will retire at the same time, so no need to staff all the majors at once. Its gonna take 20+ years for a large majority of the majors' list to retire. Yeah, American might need 1000 pilots sometime around 2025 because they retire 850 pilots that year, but thats at their peak retirement, and 13 years away. Look at the yearly retirement numbers for every airline and for every year. Its a lot of pilots combined over the next 20 years but certainly not an impossible void to fill. My regional has 1000+ fully qualified pilots ready to leave right now. Not in 2025, now. Majors wont need 1000 pilots from 1 regional in the next few years. They might need more but from a variety of sources. It might be impossible for the regionals to fill their void down the line.

Market share will be increasingly difficult to come by, therefore so will authentic and true growth. SWA is the king of this, the other majors arent. Dont expect any major to have significant (100 aircraft in addition to existing fleet) growth anytime soon. They gotta retire aircraft too yah know.

[QUOTE]Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.
/QUOTE]

Kind of. Dont forget EWR, LGA, DCA, JFK, PHL and others are pretty much close to being maxed out in arrival/departure slots. Eventually you will have to run bigger equipment in busy airports because the system is just too stressed out. Frequency will start to be less important, and the number of seats available into these busy airports will start to matter more as demand increases.

So its all frequency huh? You mean an airline can over serve a route and expect to have more passengers? Like, doing MSP-STL 49 times per day instead of 15 times per day will yield more passengers??? WOW, didnt know that. Maybe you should tell Delta. Airlines are in the business of attempting to make money so I doubt more frequency is always their model to make money...

Kit Darby, is that you?

I'm getting my buttered popcorn ready to hear embraer's reply to this one...

And that, my friend, is exactly why I'm staying put! :)

oh please! I don't know how you are trying to justify it. Maybe not very far if you're used to a Hollywood celebrity lifestyle. I guess 10k a month tax free is the new 20k a year regional pay.

Even in Hong Kong 10k a month take home is more than adequate, especially if you're single. Even if you have a family its not as if you're spending money on schools either unless you have 3+ kids. I know single people and married folks that are living way more than comfortably AND saving 4k+ a month.

The current trend will continue. That is, larger and larger regional jets flying what were once mainline routes. 20 years ago, regional airlines were flying 19 seaters. With the exception of the wages, much has changed. Behold the future. SJS kids rejoice!

http://www.wingsmagazine.com/images/...il/cseries.jpg

Easy, cut frequency to small airports. Stick 2 or 3 73's instead 6 rj's on routes like they used to. More 75s or 739s out of new york. Its not hard to compensate. All the good planners and fleet managers are at the majors anyways. If they were worried about a shortage theyd already be hiring.

So we can all be transitional pilots then?