This is going to be funny, and I don't care.

Every single time a person points to FACTS indicating the POTENTIAL for a pilot shortage in the next few years, some jackwagon will pop up with 5th grade humor dismissing the whole thing.

Of course, we get the always classic: "I've been hearing about a pilot shortage since XXXXX"

So, for all of YOU out there... Riddle me this.

When in the past 30 years have any of the following been true:

Military pipeline all but dried up. Fewer people becoming military pilots and even fewer leaving for jobs with the airlines.

Professional AMERICAN flight students going the way of the dodo bird. Just ask any CFI of any major or medium sized flight school how many AMERICAN students they have pursuing a Commercial.

Federal law establishing a MINIMUM number of flight hours required before being hired by an airline. No reducing minimums down to 250 TT when you have trouble hiring.

Impending MASSIVE retirements at all the Legacies. No ifs or buts on this one. The numbers are plain black and white. The vast majority of pilots flying for the legacies today will be retired within the next 10 years. The bulk of which will begin leaving next year.

Add all of that to the fact that air travel is INCREASING year after year. Unless some of you believe we will go back to horses and steam trains it is safe to say that air travel is here to stay. Even more than that...it is projected to keep growing. Particularly international travel.

So, point to me when in the past 30 or so years have all the factors come together at once? Many have never even existed before.

There was a time when an F-16 pilot was counting down the days to make the jump to AA, Delta, US Air, etc... for six figures. That was called the 80s. Shoot, let's even call it the 90s.

Not so anymore. There was also a time when students were lining up outside flight schools and aviation colleges to pursue a career with the airlines.

Gone. If any of you think differently I suggest speaking with a current CFI.

The days of dropping minimums to a wet Commercial? LONG GONE. The Federal Government has stepped in and set a floor. ATP or 1,000 if you did ALL your flight training at an aviation college.

I am not even presenting this thread as a conversation starter. I know 80% of this board has their default setting set to doom and gloom regardless of anything else.

I just couldn't bite my tounge anymore. I'll wrap this up by saying one more thing:

Word to your mother!

 

There will be a shortage. All the FOs waiting to upgrade will get their shots. It'll still be years before a current regional FO see the right seat at a major. Many junior to mid level regional CAs will have their shot at the majors. At least we will be moving the the right direction *knock on wood.

 

You're absolutely right. There's a shortage coming, and there will be massive hiring at mainline carriers to offset retirements and (possibly) growth at the majors while the regionals shrink. On the other hand, you'll get hired into a major job that has less than half the earning potential it did 10 years ago. That "brass ring" will tarnish within the first two years when you realize the career you hoped for isn't a career anymore. It's just a job. I commend you for going out on your own and earning a degree without Daddy's money. I did that myself and I know how hard it is. I also know how valuable that made my education to me. Automation has greatly reduced the skill set needed for this job, and the mediocre advances we are making beyond bankruptcy contracts are the proof. This "profession" has forever been reset to a much lower bar. If that non-aviation degree is in something marketable, I highly recommend a career change.

- Disappointed regional to major guy.

 

For the sake of my already too invested career decision and overall mental health, I hope you are right.

 

FFD has it right. The "golden handshake" doesn't lead to a pot of gold, only a regional with bigger jets.

 

I bet the FO at EK, QATAR, China, Japan, Korea will not,write the same paragraph with a 10k check every month.

 

Then I would encourage the OP to pursue that avenue before he puts down roots and starts having children. My buds at EK who took that job and left families behind aren't loving life.

If EK works for you, that's great. OTOH, if we've gotten to the point that we're talking about contract jobs in the arseholes of the world as being a better alternative, then we've already lost... for good.

This profession is in the toilet. Go to Dubai or Seoul, or go use your degree for a stable job. Your choice.

ps. You might want to ask an EK FO how much it costs to eat lunch and pay rent before you get all beside yourself about how big the monthly paycheck is.

 

I agree, those guys are making big money for a reason. They have to live halfway around the world in a country that cares about them as much as we care about our friends from south of the border. How the hell are you supposed to raise a family without dragging them along with you? It's madness.

 

the new guys are all eyes wide open, shortage is on the way. The guys who have been slapped and beaten and missed the late 90s window, are forever doomed and hoping their misery has company. Thats this website in a nutshell.

 

Amen brother. Which is why I am sitting pretty with 22 years to go.
Let the retirements begin...get out my seat!!

Sled