You are a glass is half full kind of guy . Just like that ATP Cliff on these forums....always, always upbeat.

Embraer, you seem to have a fairly....shall we say, aggressive, or 'come get some' attitude towards this issue...just curious, why?

Also, I thought that most airlines were *reducing* capacity/total flights. Reference American mainline's solution to their pilots calling in sick too much lately: reduce flights!

If a shortage does crop up, I think that speaks to several factors, but not least of which is the decline in pay, QOL, and stability for professional pilots. If I seem negative, I apologize, I am actually pretty easy going in person....my frustration is seeing our toil to become pilots and the sacrifices we make to sustain ourselves as professional pilots aren't being compensated fairly. (generally speaking).

I imagine we all know the testimony Captain Sullenberger gave to congress on the current state of professional aviation. I do believe his thoughts and words were measured, thoughtful, and ultimately the summation of years of experience.

My sincere hope is that through communication we can more easily band together as one pilot group to help end some shady industry practices, and bring about more sustainable, liveable compensation.

 

The OP is going to be in for a real disappointment. It doesn't surprise me the viewpoint is coming from a RJ FO, god only knows they need hope and change to believe in.

What you don't include in your "when was the last time in 30 years..." speech are the following:

*When was the last time in 30 years that oil stayed at and projected to stay at $95-$140 per barrel?

*When was the last time legacies merged together, killing names like TWA, NWA, AWA, Continental, etc.?

*When was the last time a legacy liquidated?


The future retirement problem will easily self-address itself if:

1. A legacy liquidates.
2. More mergers continue... think AA/US Air and then some.
3. Fleet types are reduced in numbers, with an increase in seats available (aka, replacing DC9s and MD88s with 737-900s).
4. Regionals liquidate altogether.

And keep in mind, IF it ever gets that that bad, the majors (through the ATA) will get the law changed that their own pilot ab-initio are exempt from the ATP rule, and you will see exactly what happens at foreign airlines like Singapore, Malaysian, etc. Ab-initio pilots will fill the cockpits. That expense will be paid for by the airline. Just like at the foreign carriers, the airline hires you with 0 pilot experience and then trains you and eventually you end up on the line. The competition for that is STIFF at foregin carriers. Once that happens here, the shortage will end. People will line up in droves for ab-initio programs offered by Delta, American, and United.... which will be the only legacies in the future.

 

I hate to be a downer but any number of things can happen that could set the industry back years. In no important order or likelihood:

More mainline mergers, overall reduction in mainline capacity (happening already), terrorist attack, oil spikes higher than it is, multi pilot license, regional liquidates, scope loss (either willingly or by bankruptcy), cabotage, JV's and code shares at the majors, and years down the road - drones and possibly single pilot operations (unlikely but still possible in 10-20 years)

 

To the OP-

Not trying to be negative, but if you truly believe that all the stars will align and scope will not be relaxed, mainline capacity will not be reduced, carveouts will not be adopted, and mainline pay will not only maintain, but also adjust for inflation and at extremely top heavy levels... well maybe you are the one with your head in the sand.

There will be a shortage, but it will not be of qualified applicants, it will be of applicants at jobs that more experienced pilots are not willing to take, i.e. RJ FO positions.

Airline pilots are taken advantage of because they fall in love with taking flight. You won't meet an accountant that heads to Wall Street for pleasure on his days off like an airline pilot heads to Sun n' Fun on his vacation.

Call me cynical

 

I love how guys say "if it doesnt work out here ill just go to EK" meanwhile every pilot ive met who interviewed there (CA and Fo) has been turned down.

 

All shortages eventually self-correct, but sometimes there is a window of opportunity to profit from even a temporary supply/demand mismatch. This occurs when you catch the very beginning of the shortage and move up, safely out of the most vulnerable zone, before the correction kicks in. Then it may be too costly to replace you with someone else, even if they are "lower-priced". Unfortunately, that timing requires a good deal of luck, because what pilots have to sell is a very perishable commodity.

 

At EK, considering you will spend less time in Dubai, the cost of food is extremely cheap. Remember these are oil producing nations. Also, EK pays for housing. Thank you very much.

 

I'm sure there will be a 'shortage.'

But to what extent? is the question.

 

I'm by no means a doom-and-gloomer, but there's an awful lot of area between having your 'head buried in the sand' and having rainbows bursting out of your posterior.

There will ***NEVER*** be a shortage of qualified pilots (defined as holding an ATP with at least some multi-turbine PIC experience) for the 'best' aviation jobs, because historically (even through the last 'lost decade') they provide superior compensation and quality of life.

This means Delta, SWA, FedEx, UPS, Fortune 100 corporate jobs, etc.

Jobs that can't, don't or won't provide superior compensation and quality of life (ie. regionals) will struggle to recruit new pilots and/or retain existing pilot talent. THAT is where the 'pilot shortage' will be.

I hope the most optimistic among us are correct, and there is a gigantic sucking sound created as the top of the pilot pool retires, providing career movement & progression for every segment of the professional piloting industry.

I certainly wouldn't bet my personal or financial future on that possibility, however...

 

Cabotage alone is enough to solve this pilot shortage. Airline management isn't stupid and they have the deep pockets to lobby and buy politicians. What do you think will happen to executive pay if they double capacity overnight by codesharing or merging with emirates/qatar/British airways.... That is how I know it will happen. It doesn't matter about us or our careers because we have no voice and instead bicker over the scraps. Your goal should be to get to a major and end outsourcing. The guys at the majors today are tripping over a dollar to pick up a penny with scope.