I believe the last time Delta's hiring window opened, their server crashed because it received too many applications; Tens of thousands for only a few hundred positions. Management has effectively moved the shortage to the lowest paying jobs, while the highest paid jobs experience wage arbitrage due to the flood of applicants from the lower paying jobs.

There will be a massive pilot shortage in the future, but it won't matter unless there is scope recapture at mainline.

 

There will never be a shortage of pilots at the majors. Delta, American, Fedex, SWA, you name whoever you want, those companies have a pool of thousands upon thousands of qualified regional pilots ready to come over at a drop of a hat. Plus, its not like every guy at the majors will be retiring all at once in the year 2017. It will take years to dry up the entire pool of qualified or willing RJ guys. All the while more pilots gaining experience somewhere, doing anything to finally get a major job. The majors will never have a hard time getting pilots, the regionals will...

 

10K a month won't get you very far in a lot of those areas.

 

+1

From the numbers I've seen, I'd say the 'majors' will be ok for qualified applicants though the next 10 years. That doesn't include any shrinking/consolidation. It is the regionals that will have problems in the shorter term.

 

My opinion is that management at the majors will use the unique "opportunity" offered by retirements to adjust capacity and tweak models, thus adding cheap labor at the bottom and finally providing the vehicle to slash 50-seat feed. Heck, management is collectively salivating at the mere thought of massive retirements.....

 

"Tell me about the pilot shortage, George!"

"An’ live off the fatta the lan’," Lennie shouted. "An’ have mainline jobs. Go on, George! Tell about what we’re gonna have in the cockpit and about the pilot shortage and about the Boeings and the Airbussesess, and how thick the our wallets will be. Tell about that George."

(Apologies to John Steinbeck)

 

I don't get your reverse rationalization...or your numbers. I suggest looking at them again.

There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.

I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s.

Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.

As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it.

If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s.

Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs.

 

I have friends whom teach at ER, FIT, FSA etc...the man hit the nail on the head. Not hardly an American based student to be found among any of them...very very few!

I believe the industry still has good and bad times to go through, and will always be a roller coaster in general, just like trucking - hell its transportation nuff said.

But we pilots with many years ahead of us - staying the course after investing 100s of thousands of dollars, tears, sweat, and blood, I foresee some seats opening up for us all, and there will be a shortage to an extent! Those of us primed and ready for seats to open are in the best positions! You guys and gals out there still teaching at this point are too!

To those retiring and opening up seats in the years to come, sincerely, thanks for your service! Hope your retirements are everything I hope mine becomes someday and then some. You will always be our brothers and sisters of the sky life! Especially to those of you who remember where you came from, and helped some young pilot along the way. You truly get my thanks! I sure have had my share of help along the way via some old pros! I hope those of us whom come after you can do the same!

I choose to remain optimistic, I love to fly, and will take my punches as they come along with what I love to do most in life!

 

FWIW, back in 2009-2010, everybody was saying that by 2012, there would be a pilot shortage. Well we're almost half way through the year and I don't see any signs of a "shortage".

I wonder what this thread is going to look like in 3 years when we look back at it. Is poster embraer going to to be hailed as a prophet, or ridiculed as a fool? Time will tell.

 

That was always a misnomer. 2012 was (is) the year retirements at the legacies begin. It really doesn't pick up pace until 2013/2014 but 2012 is the beginning.

Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone.

The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot.