Originally Posted by Senior Skipper

1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.

2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once.

Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen.

Originally Posted by embraer

This is going to be funny, and I don't care.

Every single time a person points to FACTS indicating the POTENTIAL for a pilot shortage in the next few years, some jackwagon will pop up with 5th grade humor dismissing the whole thing.

Of course, we get the always classic: "I've been hearing about a pilot shortage since XXXXX"

So, for all of YOU out there... Riddle me this.

When in the past 30 years have any of the following been true:

Military pipeline all but dried up. Fewer people becoming military pilots and even fewer leaving for jobs with the airlines.

Professional AMERICAN flight students going the way of the dodo bird. Just ask any CFI of any major or medium sized flight school how many AMERICAN students they have pursuing a Commercial.

Federal law establishing a MINIMUM number of flight hours required before being hired by an airline. No reducing minimums down to 250 TT when you have trouble hiring.

Impending MASSIVE retirements at all the Legacies. No ifs or buts on this one. The numbers are plain black and white. The vast majority of pilots flying for the legacies today will be retired within the next 10 years. The bulk of which will begin leaving next year.

Add all of that to the fact that air travel is INCREASING year after year. Unless some of you believe we will go back to horses and steam trains it is safe to say that air travel is here to stay. Even more than that...it is projected to keep growing. Particularly international travel.

So, point to me when in the past 30 or so years have all the factors come together at once? Many have never even existed before.

There was a time when an F-16 pilot was counting down the days to make the jump to AA, Delta, US Air, etc... for six figures. That was called the 80s. Shoot, let's even call it the 90s.

Not so anymore. There was also a time when students were lining up outside flight schools and aviation colleges to pursue a career with the airlines.

Gone. If any of you think differently I suggest speaking with a current CFI.

The days of dropping minimums to a wet Commercial? LONG GONE. The Federal Government has stepped in and set a floor. ATP or 1,000 if you did ALL your flight training at an aviation college.

I am not even presenting this thread as a conversation starter. I know 80% of this board has their default setting set to doom and gloom regardless of anything else.

I just couldn't bite my tounge anymore. I'll wrap this up by saying one more thing:

Word to your mother!

Originally Posted by block30

.... Airline Stocks Tumble After Delta Air Lines Trims Capacity More Than Expected DAL UAL RYAAY - Investors.com

Yay...Can you say "pilot shortage?"

Originally Posted by aussieflyboy

What the heck are you talking about?? The latest date?

Follow me here for a minute.

Close your eyes. Cast your mind back to 2007.

Do you see every major in America hiring multiple classes of new hires every month?

December, 2007. Congress passes the age 65 law. Now all the old fellas get an extra 5 years in the left seat.

The hiring windows at the majors SLAM SHUT, with the realization that just about every one of those 60 year olds is staying to 65.

Now, add 5 years to December 2007 and you get December 2012!

How the hell is this so hard for you? YES, 2012 IS THE LATEST DATE!!! IT'S BEEN THE LATEST DATE SINCE DECEMBER 2007!!

DO YOU GET IT YET????????

Originally Posted by Rnav

Mark my words age 70 will pass! then age 75... besides to the original Op there may be no new certs being issued, but plenty of those(like myself) who are now sitting on the outside looking in and may consider coming back if the stars align.

Current regional peeps get to go mainline, regionals downsize\get larger aircraft and get filled by a has-been like me. There goes your pilot shortage at the regional level.