To those whose heads are buried in the sand
05-16-2012 | 08:09 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 433
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Cabotage alone is enough to solve this pilot shortage. Airline management isn't stupid and they have the deep pockets to lobby and buy politicians. What do you think will happen to executive pay if they double capacity overnight by codesharing or merging with emirates/qatar/British airways.... That is how I know it will happen. It doesn't matter about us or our careers because we have no voice and instead bicker over the scraps. Your goal should be to get to a major and end outsourcing. The guys at the majors today are tripping over a dollar to pick up a penny with scope.
^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^
No one seems to see the writing on the wall. Pay closer attention.
05-16-2012 | 08:16 AM
#32
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
That was always a misnomer. 2012 was (is) the year retirements at the legacies begin. It really doesn't pick up pace until 2013/2014 but 2012 is the beginning.
Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone.
The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot.
Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone.
The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot.
Also, kudos on knowing the difference between moot and mute. *Up Top!* (Barney Stinson, anyone?)
05-16-2012 | 08:28 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 172
Likes: 0
From: 747 F/O
[QUOTEThere are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.
[/QUOTE]
Embarer, Its not like 100% of all major pilots will retire at the same time, so no need to staff all the majors at once. Its gonna take 20+ years for a large majority of the majors' list to retire. Yeah, American might need 1000 pilots sometime around 2025 because they retire 850 pilots that year, but thats at their peak retirement, and 13 years away. Look at the yearly retirement numbers for every airline and for every year. Its a lot of pilots combined over the next 20 years but certainly not an impossible void to fill. My regional has 1000+ fully qualified pilots ready to leave right now. Not in 2025, now. Majors wont need 1000 pilots from 1 regional in the next few years. They might need more but from a variety of sources. It might be impossible for the regionals to fill their void down the line.
Market share will be increasingly difficult to come by, therefore so will authentic and true growth. SWA is the king of this, the other majors arent. Dont expect any major to have significant (100 aircraft in addition to existing fleet) growth anytime soon. They gotta retire aircraft too yah know.
[QUOTE]Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.
/QUOTE]
Kind of. Dont forget EWR, LGA, DCA, JFK, PHL and others are pretty much close to being maxed out in arrival/departure slots. Eventually you will have to run bigger equipment in busy airports because the system is just too stressed out. Frequency will start to be less important, and the number of seats available into these busy airports will start to matter more as demand increases.
So its all frequency huh? You mean an airline can over serve a route and expect to have more passengers? Like, doing MSP-STL 49 times per day instead of 15 times per day will yield more passengers??? WOW, didnt know that. Maybe you should tell Delta. Airlines are in the business of attempting to make money so I doubt more frequency is always their model to make money...
[/QUOTE]
Embarer, Its not like 100% of all major pilots will retire at the same time, so no need to staff all the majors at once. Its gonna take 20+ years for a large majority of the majors' list to retire. Yeah, American might need 1000 pilots sometime around 2025 because they retire 850 pilots that year, but thats at their peak retirement, and 13 years away. Look at the yearly retirement numbers for every airline and for every year. Its a lot of pilots combined over the next 20 years but certainly not an impossible void to fill. My regional has 1000+ fully qualified pilots ready to leave right now. Not in 2025, now. Majors wont need 1000 pilots from 1 regional in the next few years. They might need more but from a variety of sources. It might be impossible for the regionals to fill their void down the line.
Market share will be increasingly difficult to come by, therefore so will authentic and true growth. SWA is the king of this, the other majors arent. Dont expect any major to have significant (100 aircraft in addition to existing fleet) growth anytime soon. They gotta retire aircraft too yah know.
[QUOTE]Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.
/QUOTE]
Kind of. Dont forget EWR, LGA, DCA, JFK, PHL and others are pretty much close to being maxed out in arrival/departure slots. Eventually you will have to run bigger equipment in busy airports because the system is just too stressed out. Frequency will start to be less important, and the number of seats available into these busy airports will start to matter more as demand increases.
So its all frequency huh? You mean an airline can over serve a route and expect to have more passengers? Like, doing MSP-STL 49 times per day instead of 15 times per day will yield more passengers??? WOW, didnt know that. Maybe you should tell Delta. Airlines are in the business of attempting to make money so I doubt more frequency is always their model to make money...
05-16-2012 | 08:31 AM
#34
Doing One Pilot's Job
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,889
Likes: 129
I don't get your reverse rationalization...or your numbers. I suggest looking at them again.
There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.
I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s.
Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.
As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it.
If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s.
Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs.
There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.
I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s.
Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.
As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it.
If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s.
Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs.
05-16-2012 | 08:34 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 270
Likes: 0
The OP is going to be in for a real disappointment. It doesn't surprise me the viewpoint is coming from a RJ FO, god only knows they need hope and change to believe in.
What you don't include in your "when was the last time in 30 years..." speech are the following:
*When was the last time in 30 years that oil stayed at and projected to stay at $95-$140 per barrel?
*When was the last time legacies merged together, killing names like TWA, NWA, AWA, Continental, etc.?
*When was the last time a legacy liquidated?
The future retirement problem will easily self-address itself if:
1. A legacy liquidates.
2. More mergers continue... think AA/US Air and then some.
3. Fleet types are reduced in numbers, with an increase in seats available (aka, replacing DC9s and MD88s with 737-900s).
4. Regionals liquidate altogether.
And keep in mind, IF it ever gets that that bad, the majors (through the ATA) will get the law changed that their own pilot ab-initio are exempt from the ATP rule, and you will see exactly what happens at foreign airlines like Singapore, Malaysian, etc. Ab-initio pilots will fill the cockpits. That expense will be paid for by the airline. Just like at the foreign carriers, the airline hires you with 0 pilot experience and then trains you and eventually you end up on the line. The competition for that is STIFF at foregin carriers. Once that happens here, the shortage will end. People will line up in droves for ab-initio programs offered by Delta, American, and United.... which will be the only legacies in the future.
What you don't include in your "when was the last time in 30 years..." speech are the following:
*When was the last time in 30 years that oil stayed at and projected to stay at $95-$140 per barrel?
*When was the last time legacies merged together, killing names like TWA, NWA, AWA, Continental, etc.?
*When was the last time a legacy liquidated?
The future retirement problem will easily self-address itself if:
1. A legacy liquidates.
2. More mergers continue... think AA/US Air and then some.
3. Fleet types are reduced in numbers, with an increase in seats available (aka, replacing DC9s and MD88s with 737-900s).
4. Regionals liquidate altogether.
And keep in mind, IF it ever gets that that bad, the majors (through the ATA) will get the law changed that their own pilot ab-initio are exempt from the ATP rule, and you will see exactly what happens at foreign airlines like Singapore, Malaysian, etc. Ab-initio pilots will fill the cockpits. That expense will be paid for by the airline. Just like at the foreign carriers, the airline hires you with 0 pilot experience and then trains you and eventually you end up on the line. The competition for that is STIFF at foregin carriers. Once that happens here, the shortage will end. People will line up in droves for ab-initio programs offered by Delta, American, and United.... which will be the only legacies in the future.
05-16-2012 | 08:59 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,205
Likes: 271
oh please! I don't know how you are trying to justify it. Maybe not very far if you're used to a Hollywood celebrity lifestyle. I guess 10k a month tax free is the new 20k a year regional pay.
Even in Hong Kong 10k a month take home is more than adequate, especially if you're single. Even if you have a family its not as if you're spending money on schools either unless you have 3+ kids. I know single people and married folks that are living way more than comfortably AND saving 4k+ a month.
Even in Hong Kong 10k a month take home is more than adequate, especially if you're single. Even if you have a family its not as if you're spending money on schools either unless you have 3+ kids. I know single people and married folks that are living way more than comfortably AND saving 4k+ a month.
05-16-2012 | 08:59 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 439
Likes: 0
From: 1986 LeBaron Convertable
The current trend will continue. That is, larger and larger regional jets flying what were once mainline routes. 20 years ago, regional airlines were flying 19 seaters. With the exception of the wages, much has changed. Behold the future. SJS kids rejoice!
05-16-2012 | 09:14 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 687
Likes: 0
Easy, cut frequency to small airports. Stick 2 or 3 73's instead 6 rj's on routes like they used to. More 75s or 739s out of new york. Its not hard to compensate. All the good planners and fleet managers are at the majors anyways. If they were worried about a shortage theyd already be hiring.
05-16-2012 | 09:23 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 687
Likes: 0
So we can all be transitional pilots then?
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