Comair a sign of a brighter future?
 

Looking past the awful pain this shut down is causing hundreds of pilots and their families, this shut down (and the rest of the regional airlines woes) appear to have a bright side when taken into context. This shut down does not appear to be related to capacity cuts, which means the flying will be replaced by 717s and other larger regional jets. This is positive on two accounts; one, larger regional jets mean better pay than 50-seaters; two, a shrinking regional airline sector combined with bringing flying in-house by the majors like Delta (717s) should reduce the time pilots spend at the regional airlines.

Sure, in the short run this transition is causing pain, and it's possible more pain will happen. But looking forward, does the above make sense? Am I missing something?

Less regional flying is ALWAYS a good thing, even though it means some may suffer in the short term for a greater good. But what grinds the gears is that it's the wrong people suffering. As soon as a pilot group stands up and says "no" to bad work agreements (comair), or they get too expensive (trans states) they're the ones who are out of jobs while the regionals that really need to be shot down (gojets for example, no offense to anyone there) continues to thrive and sometimes even benefit from it.

That's the regional model. Cheap, outsourced feed with low longevity. It's why Mesa and Pinnacle were so prosperous from 2000-2006, and they took plenty of flying from the mainline and certain other regionals. Once you get people lots of people maxed out at 12th year pay at the regional level, that operation becomes too expensive to compete with other newer entrants in the industry, like GoJets and Compass. 12 years from now, assuming the regional industry exists like it does, then the GoJets and Silver will be replaced by other, cheaper carriers.

No, it means more crappy wages to fly larger regional jets. The more large regional jets mainline can get, the less mainline hiring will occur.

BINGO !!!

Eagle will be the next carrier to fly 79-seat airliners for peanuts. Yes, they WILL get some of those jets and while it may be palatable for those very senior who don't plan on leaving, for the majority it means many of them will still be there in 10 years and for all intents and purposes chained to that carrier for their careers. At that point, they'll be too old and be passed up for younger, cheaper pilots at the majors who don't need full family health care or expensive health issues.

The worst part (as if that isn't bad enough) is that virtually all of the majors will have whipsaw models in place whereby each of these regional carriers flying a portion of that majors feeder needs will have short-term contracts that must be rebid and thus compensation for these pilots will be continuously stagnant. Considering inflation and skyrocketing health care, the earning power for most will actually decline year-over-year.

The shininess of a CRJ-900 or E-175 will wear off quickly, especially since there will be fewer escape ropes to the majors, stagnation will occur. The next down cycle will see the music stop and the inevitable lack of available chairs for all and that's at both the majors and regionals.

The question for each pilot is, "where will YOU be in that conga line when the music DOES stop again ?".

Sure as hell not at a regional. I'm happy flying a Metro working with an FO that makes more money then most CAs flying RJs.

Serious question here...what options do guys that don't want to work at the regional level yet make it to the majors have? I'm fortunate enough to be living in Canada, where there's no such thing as regionals (yet), and I make a very good wage and have great QOL. RJ pilots here make mainline wages. So I am able to circumvent ever having to go work for one of those regionals, but my question is for those less fortunate, is there a legitimate and reasonable way of getting around working for 18K/yr?

Looking forward, those planes are going to cheaper regionals. More experienced pilots are jobless and less experienced pilots are upgrading. Delta still has no 717s on property. Delta still is not hiring.

On the other hand, Bill Lumberg is banned from APC.

So all in all, I'd say this TA is a big neutral.

It's all about the take home. I took home more money flying a CRJ in the US than I do as a mainline pilot in Canada. In Canada, we're paying 40%+ income tax rates.

CC,

Don't think Jazz, or CMA are of the regional airline description and criteria. Are they Legacies? LOL.

YD

Good point Canam...I'm so used to be taxed up my arse I forget that take home for a first year RJ pilot is probably the same as what a 30K per year FO makes.

Yabadaba, I don't consider CMA to be a legitimate company at all. While there are companies like that, there are many more that are willing to pay you well and treat you well for your work. I'm fortunate and blessed enough to work for one.

Jazz is considered a major here. The pay is the same as AC's and tops out pretty high.