Additionally as airlines up gauge equipment size over the next decade (50's to 76's, 76's to 717's, etc etc) while there may be increases in total capacity in the US, the total number of pilots required will decrease (thus continuing the trend of making the industry more efficient). Look for global capacity to increase in developing areas of the world but US airlines will only be a small fraction of that growth.

So yes. While global air travel growth is forecast to grow wildly, very little will affect US airlines. Hence no pilot shortage at all, in spite of future retirements. However, a shortage a qualified AND quality applicants at the regional level is quite possible.

I'm sorry, what do you mean "cutout"? The exception?

Sure we will see a reduction of pilots needed due to airlines going to larger RJ type aircraft but in the grand scheme of things pilot demand will start to go up after about a 5 year adjustment period. Pilots leaving regionals to go to mainline will absorb some of these reductions quickly. The US airline capacity will grow again soon as long as we can stay out of a world war or something along those lines. The US population is growing at about 2.5 million people a year so capacity will have to increase so people can fly. Shortage? Probably not. Steady need of pilots? No doubt.

Will part of the NPRM be to change the XC requirement for the ATP? As it stands you need 500XC 50NM straight line distance. This number is difficult to get to just flight instructing.

A 1000 hours for military guys (Navy/AF) won't be a problem. You get winged with around 300 hours, then it's off to your first squadron. I left with slightly over 1000 hours.

It's difficult for a reason. In theory, the more challenging the the task the better the reward. All of these short cuts in life have watered down the reward. Pilots have no self worth because they really have nothing to back it up any more. Some have more experience on Microsoft Flight Simulator than they do in a real airplane.

So rather than try and find another path due to the level of challenge. Recognize the reasoning for the challenge.

If all you have done in life is flight instruct, maybe you don't have what it takes (or what it should take) to become an airline pilot. I think that is where they were going with the detailed requirements to hold an ATP certificate.

Sorry to be blunt but I'm sure others can see the harsh truth in that.

Maybe if you are working at a puppy-mill and have no motivation or ambition. If you are actively using your CFI and not finding it to be challenging and REWARDING, you're doing it wrong.

LOL, most people I know used their CFI for time-building and nothing else. Is it surprising that some people just don't have the desire/drive to teach? :eek:

I think what most opponents of this law are saying in regards to the higher times is that the arbitrary number (1500) is farther away than say 600-1000 which was what the regionals were hiring with for a long time. They did do anything wrong, and then overnight, the magic number was some how doubled. It adds a lot of pressure. Sure, it's an extra year of CFI, freight, etc. However, after putting forth the effort to earn the ratings, spend the money and the time, then worry about meeting certain requirements, it seems bleak to some.

I'd like to know how many regional pilots over the last few years were actually hired WITH an ATP?

If it's difficult to get just instructing, perhaps you could look around for another way to get it.

It is one of the harder columns to fill as a CFI, but so what? Use the time you spend as a CFI to learn as much as possible. Get your CFII and see if you can get some IFR experience.

This is part of the benefit of the new law. The people who don't care enough to go out and get the experience won't be flying professionally. Not saying that's you, but something to think about.

Getting 500 hours xc on my way to getting my 1500 while CFIing was zero issue. If you do have an issue, you're doing it wrong.

Moonlighting to get charter work and the like is little problem if youve got any sense in networking!