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May I make one suggestion to those that are benefiting: Don't get comfortable with AMR. Since 2007, BOS has closed, CRJ DFW was shifted to ORD and LGA, Saabs were grounded, a huge and cool base of SJU has been whittled down to nothing, DFW ATR opened and closed in a 3 year period, SJU soon to disappear, two furlough rounds, multiple Vacancy, displacements (four in 2009 alone) effecting hundreds of pilots, not to mention ground personal and FAs all having to up root families it quit.

I could go on and on. But my point is, don't go to DFW and buy a house, fall in love, have a kid or do anything that requires long term commitments. 4 years from now, it might belong to Silver. Actually, I'm kind of surprised AMR hasn't given them some portion of the flying already.

And Eagle hasn't really shrunk in terms of pilots...just.shifted around.

They're crazy if they do. All it is, is a four yr. Contract basically to cover flying leaving with eagle emj. In four yrs. AA will want different planes not 200's and they will have to bid again.

Good post, Eagle is just now dealing with what everyone else has for years. Sucks but thats the name of the game these days.

Looks like people are starting to get it. The future is a continual pilot dogfight where the skinniest dog wins. I'm estimating that the typical senior RJ captain of today making 90K wil be flying a CRJ or E-jet with about 20-25% less earning power in 4 years considering inflation and increasing health care. That's about $70,000 max in today's dollars. As bad as that sounds, there are two additions which make it worse.

1. Even THAT will be too expensive in 4 years, so you'll have to accept less.

And

2. That only applies to those maxed out. Since MANY won't be maxed-out captains (or even captains), the majority should take their current W-2 and take at least 15-20% off and project yourself 4 years from now.

Enjoy your careers, me hearties. :cool:

And the cost of flight training will continue to rise while the new ATP laws will make it even more difficult to get that job.

Which means ?

This transportation "model" has a limited lifespan. They can't raise compensation that much considering the smaller aircraft cannot support that due to less revenue generated as the costs would exceed that of the majors. Independent regionals won't be able to sustain that and majors won't pay for it.

This flying will have to ultimately be blended into the majors, but that means most regional pilots will be no better off in that time frame as is the best outcome, they'll be at the bottom of a major seniority list and mostly all F/O's on junior equipment in the $40-60/hour range. Thus, the overwhelming majority of regional pilots are making as much or more now then they will for many, many years while this reality shakes itself out over the next 4-8 years.

"Infecting" AMR? Turning the industry into a "dystopian nightmare" with "drooling cannabalisic zombie-like dregs roaming the night in constant battle over each others scraps of flesh" is only "slightly overly dramatic"?!? Those posts give a high school girl a run for her lunch money.

Don't worry, I see the big picture. I'm just pointing out that some of these guys are acting like ninnies and embarrassing themselves in public. Outsourcing sucks, but it's the current state of this segment the industry. You'd think your energy would be focused on getting out rather than preserving what once was at Eagle or any of the other lifer regionals for that matter. Speaking of the big picture.

Highly likely scenario. And while the pilots are locked into the B-scale pay rates, they'll probably be on a set of negotiated B-scale work rules as well.

I agree with this assessment. I will also add, all current negotiations include provisions for increased productivity from pilots and flexibility with schedules. I have heard the term "pseudo reserve" used. QOL is taking huge hits, especially as commuting becomes much more difficult and work weeks get longer.

I don't believe the "pilot shortage" will help in achieving any real gains in pay or QOL enhancements, but shifts in labor allocation.

My biggest hope now is to position myself to take advantage of overseas contract to cash out and get out. I don't see a single carrier as a career job anymore.

If you read AMR's TA provisions (that also are in the 1113), you'll note they ensure no group 1 aircraft (less than 81-seats) pay rate increases can be tied to larger group aircraft. Additionally, G1 aircraft use FAR limits in scheduling.

Clearly, they've considered this likely scenario and have inserted some protections against its negative consequences.

Agree completely. I also am planning my "cash out/get out" strategy. I'm in my upper 40's and in 5 years, this industry will be begging for pilots.....pleading for them.To keep me in this biz it's going to take A LOT of coin. Otherwise, by then I'll be in a position to make more doing something else and watch with glee as the airlines finally reap what they have sown for so long.

I thought you said, "and watch Glee". I got really excited.......(Sarcasm)

Two things. There will never be a pilot shortage at the major/legacy/UPS/FedEx level. They won't be begging you but someone just starting out.

In another post, you say the flying will ultimately be blended into the majors. I disagree. If you blend it in, there is no more whipsawing and cost savings. Sure there might be a return of the B scale but it would eventually be corrected just as AA's was. As long as the legacies continue to have scope eroded, management has no reason to do otherwise.

Sorry, need a clarification as it seems your post may seem a little contradictory.

First it says that "G1" aircraft are subject to FAR limits, which pretty much suck. Right now anyway. Are other (larger) aircraft currently subject to something more restrictive per TA/CBA like shorter duty days/longer rest periods?

So if it's a protection against negative consequences, consequences for who if it's FAR limit only?

The problem is there are only a fraction of people "starting out" now that need to be there in the next few years. To be there in the future, they need to be there now. As it stands, it seems there's little appetite for many college students to get into aviation and specifically airline pilot positions when they have to absorb $50-75K worth of debt in addition to their normal college costs for a $36K/year job with slow progression, a lot of time away from home and little respect.

That $36K/year BTW is new-hire pay for AA, not the regionals. You think the regionals will be more attractive then that ?

You're dreaming.

They will have little choice but to blend it in to mitigate the damage. Whipsawing is the perfect model, but depends on an endless and ADEQUATE supply of pilots. Right now there is, but in a few years when the demand increases, there won't be.

Whipsawing is worthless when your new aircraft go from assembly line to the Arizona desert.

No, but G1 aircraft flying most of the typical regional missions will benefit more from and be subject more to the necessity of those limits. Their economics will depend on it again, due to their limited revenue generation abilities and higher operational costs per seat.

Additionally, in the future these aircraft will likely continue to see airline managements demand more flexible terms. For instance, duty rigs, trip rigs and international pay won't apply and quite possibly, reduced 401(k) provisions as well. AA pilots can eventually expect 13-16% 401(k) contributions, but I'll bet new-hires in those aircraft will not see that contribution until graduating to G2 aircraft or higher.

So basically, YES. "G1" aircraft will be on a B-scale workrule as well as a B-scale hourly compensation package. Almost sounds like UAL during the BK. Eliminate the monthly flying cap for narrow body as well as the trip/duty rigs and fly them close to FAR limits.

Might as well bring back the Crandal era B-scale with a flowthough, pretty much be the SAME thing.

Remember, this only applies if/when these aircraft are moved to mainline. As of now (and for the next several years), the whipsaw model will proceed and these aircraft will be flown by independent subcontractors and this model will only be abandoned when no longer viable.

In the mean time, look for meat to be dangled into the dogfight ring. The dog that fights harder and eats less and is a cheaper dog gets to keep his gig, the others go back to the cage where life isn't as good.

Thanks, but I've ALREADY been through the continuous RFP/shifting of flying/lowest bidder/downgrade/displacement/paycuts/furlough/CH11/company shut down before I even went to XJT. Got hired at XJT, and got to see ALL but the last 2 items AGAIN.

You ain't tellin me nuthin' new brotha'

Well then, at least the future will be of no surprise to you. The dizzying ride will not only continue but intensify.

No worries...
 

Given the company (EGL) in the same breath mentioned no furloughs with this shift in 50-seat flying and actually expects to hire tells me all of this is an an effort to distance itself from low-margin, short-haul flying as is done in LA. All of that to say the guys and gals at EGL can expect new larger, shiny airplanes soon. Scratch that shiny comment. They've announced new branding is in the works for both EGL and AA and it prob means an end to the polished look. Crandell's vision of EGL's ultimate role is taking hold I suspect.

Work with you? Wake up, he really doesn't do that. You do understand that he has an employment/compensation contract? There is a really good reason for that. Yeah, he is definitely the smarter of the bunch over there.

Dont post much on here but down the road im thinking Skywest will buy Eagle. I think they just wanted LAX in a swap for all the ramp eagle picked up from them. Just a thought, but who really knows. But i think something bigger is around the corner for us Eagle people.

There is no clear answer to what happened between AMR and the leaser of the ERJs, rumor has it that it didn't go well and that AMR was told keep them all or return them, most of these ERJ leases are coming up and it seems AMR will be returning most if not all of them, we have been told the ERJ 135's will be returned by next year end and the ERJ 140's are not far behind. The question is how these returns are taking place, is it an exchange or just a straight return. AMR needed to move some of the ERJ to the east coast while Sky West had some aircraft available out west, AMR wants to diverstify their feed and this allows them to start the process. What will happen with the larger Rj's is still up in the air, will AMR continue the relationship with RAH still in the air as well. Skywest will supply the aircraft, maintenance and crews while AMR will control everything else. Likely we will see other feeder join in out in the east cost likely and ORD, many rumor, many volutes but that is all that is happening at this time. Eagle is recalling and hiring, i suspect it will be hard to recruit as we don't have a fleet size projection and we are about to vote on a TA while still in BK. It is likely over the next few weeks that AMR will announce and aircraft order of larger RJ as we vote and as AA's new negotiations gain track they will announce recalls and that will include 230 or so Eagle captains that have the option to flow (how many will go it is still in the air). As far as SKW owning Eagle, is you are AMR you will likely not do this as this will give SKW to much control over the market feed and will be harder to whipsaw. AMR is very controlling and you can see that in the terms that we can read in regards to the SKW CPA! Much is in the air, the sky is not falling at least yet, if you came to eagle between summer 2010 and spring 2011 you are still standing in a getter position that if you would have gone to RAH, SKW and other places as you still have somewhere between 600 to 400 pilots below you but we know things change quite fast in the industry and the next few things will be likely to tell a lot as Delta continues to announce parking 50 seaters, United continues with their TA and American distributes large RJ flying.

Well put.
Feb 2011, 410 below me, bottom line holder, boarder line RSV in MIA, would be the same in almost every other base.

What happened to the days of paragraph?

No grammar police, just make postings more readable.

GF

I was wrong about CRJs in DFW, sorry.

Let me clarify about the loss of LAX and DFW flying... Be gracious in your good fortune! It's in bad taste to gloat when it's at the expense of other pilots livelihoods.

Dang this thread is getting awesome..

Sorry, posted from the mighty IPhone!