Pilot Shortage
 

It looks like the aviation industry is finally on the upswing. With the majors recalling and soon to be hiring in the near future, a pilot shortage is now proving to be evident. I for one am glad. I know the regionals are having a hard time filling classes. I hope this is a wakeup call to EVERYONE in management that in order to expand their operations and compete, they are going to have to finally offer adequate pay and quality of life to the workforce. I know for a fact that Mesa is already running severely understaffed and is having a hard time filling classes. I would like to hear your opinion on this subject.

There may be an immediate shortage of entry-level regional pilots, you have to keep some things in mind...

1) Regionals are loathe to raise pay unilateraly, because they will probably be stuck with the raise for the long haul. They are hoping that this is a temporary phenomenon and are hoping to just ride it out. The low pay scale for first officers is a golden goose, they really don't want to mess it up.

2) Age 65 could still happen and would change pilot demand instantly for several years.

3) Many regionals can just lower the bar a few hundred hours to adjust the supply as needed (except mesa...at 250 hours they can't really go any lower).

4) Regionals may prefer to pass up a growth opportunity right now rather than raise pay scales...any raise will affect the profitability of ALL of their existing flying (which is already at a certain rate), not just the growth flying.


A sustained shortage lasting for several years might have some positive affect...assuming that the pilot factories are not able to ramp up their output. Financing for pilot training is getting harder to obtain...that should help if it stays that way.

I agree. Lets hope age 65 DOES NOT happen, and we are probably going to see an increase in pilot pay and quality of life.

I've heard about the pilot shortage for almost 10 years now. There may be a shortage at some regional's, but there is no shortage at the majors and likely never will be. That 737 route that used to employ a couple mainline crews is a now a regional route. Fact of the matter is, that while a bunch of pilots may retire, mainline carriers no longer need the amount of pilots they needed before because they don't fly as much as they used to. That's our job now (for significantly less money).

Granted, places are hiring...but CAL hiring 60 pilots a month is nothing like the group interviews of old where mainline carriers were picking up pilots like a $2 hooker in vietnam. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but in aviation, I won't believe it until I'm flying it.

Comair can't even fill there classes. They have lowered there mins to 600TT and 100 multi. Another accident waiting to happen.

It seems to me that everything lies heavily on the age 60 rule. If it is raised to 65 (which I hope never happens), upgrades and hiring at the top level will stagnate. On one hand, it's a huge liability to increase the retirement age to 65. On the other hand, everyone knows that it's ALWAYS ABOUT MONEY. So my question is that do you think that it will be economically feasible to raise the age?

I would like find out if flight schools accross the country are filling their classes. I doubt they are. People are starting to realize that being a pilot today certainly is different than being a pilot 20 years ago. Ask any Norhtwest pilot that was insulted as management sent out a memo on tips to save money which included dumpster diving. I wonder what the going rate is these days at one of the pilot factories. I know lots of guys who basically spent upwards of $85,000 + bucks in order to be paid less than $22,000 a year. Me, along with all of you guys out there worked really hard to get where we're at. I hope that we can soon reap the benefits.

Is it true that Skywest can't even fill classes? I've heard that they are thinking about offering 2nd yr F.O. pay for first yr. F.O.s. Again,its probably a rumor but I would like to see someone set the standard.

It would be better if they offered the difference as a 401K payment that vests over 4 years (25% per year). This way if people leave they can retain some of the money. It would be a win-win situation for both pilots and company.

How many 1st year FO are able to max out their 401Ks to IRS limits?

Just thinking out loud...Maybe one of the Sky pilot can suggest that to management.

-LAFF

There was some talk about ASA transfers keeping their pay longevity, but I don't think it has happened yet. I think realistically the only change you might see for SKW new-hires would be a bump from $19 to 22-ish.

there will never be a real pilot shortage as long as theres are cheasy adds showing Rj's and a kid walking around in a uniform saying, 0-right seat in as little as 9 months and the general public still believes that pilots make good money.

you need to get the word out, I MAKE CRAP, then noone else will wanna become a pilot

i do my part, everyone i meet i tell them how little i make and there extremely suprised

do your part!

Earth to SkyHigh. Earth to SkyHigh. Come in SkyHigh.

The hotel van driver was pretty surprised to learn we make the same...and he's only gotta go from the hotel to the airport and back

you dont tell just other prospective pilots, you tell EVERYONE. cause its at the family christmas party a few years down the road when someone is chatting with your uncle about how old their kids are and what they wanna do for college. then the other guy says his kid wants to go to some aviation school and become a pilot, and all of a sudden your uncle says "oh i have a nephew that paid 100k to do that and now he makes 20K working 12+ hour days". so the other guy says, "that sounds stupid and i dont want my kid to do that"

SPREAD THE WORD!

you're dead nut$ on with that one. RJ's are the domestic flying future. Just look at all those mainline routes disappearing to the "regionals(replacements)":(

Nope. Passengers hate the RJs and they are far more expensive to fly per seat. That, combined with crowding at airport, I predict RJs have seen their day.

You're joking, right? Max for 401k is $15k/yr now. First year FO's at the regionals are making $18k-$25k/yr. Maximum by law is 50% pretax and 10% post tax. No way can they max it out on first year pay, unless they earn above average pay and live at home or via another person who pays their bills. Most places there isn't an employer match for 1 year, but even then employer contributions don't count against the $15k/yr.

I would like to see a shorter vesting time as well. Our plan is actually pretty good - after 1 year, 3% employer contribution regardless of employee contribution and up to a 4% employer match with an 8% employee contribution (so 7% employer match basically). The best part is it's dollar for dollar, none of this "50% of the first X%" that you get at most places. But even so, there is a 6 year vesting period. Yuck.

RJ's are inherently less effecient than mainline aircraft (CSM)...their only advantages are:

1) More economical on very low volume, longer range routes (routes that are too long for a t-prop). Most airline passengers actually travel between larger city pairs, and are better served by mainline.

2) Low labor cost. This is TOTALLY artificial. It started out with entry level pilots getting paid 19-seat turbo-prop wages to fly 19-seat turbo-props. OOOPS! Today they get paid 19 seat turbo-prop wages to fly 90-seat RJ's...this makes it economical for mainline to put an ineffecient RJ on a mainline route because they more than make up for the CSM inefficiency with low labor costs.

The last of the 50 seaters maybe(i.e. a real REGIONAL JET).....but the 70-100seaters(i.e. THE REPLACEMENT JET), their days have just started

Well, I can tell you probably one of the reasons there is a shortage is because almost no one is training to fly. The flight school where I work is at a small FBO, but just 3 years ago we had 80 students graduate through the various certificates and ratings. Sadly, we currently have around 15 students. 13 of them are doctors and lawyers who are getting their license to fly on weekends. The training costs are just too much for a lot of people to handle.

Hate to say it
 

It's hard to admit it but it's true. I was signed up to join ATP this December but after further investigation into a pilot's life style and pay I have decided against it. Making $20,000 per year for the 1st 1 to 5 years is hard to imagine, especially if you have loan payments to make. I love flying with all of my heart but I also like to have food in my mouth, and be able to take my girlfriend out on a date every so often. Now I'm interviewing for a management position with a local distribution company with starting pay above $60,000 per year. I'm planning on flying gliders on the weekends. This way I can still live the dream of flying and not have to worry about how I'm going to feed myself for the next few years. If I had to live in poverty to fly it would take away the fun of it. I feel like I've dodged a bullet by not becoming a professional pilot.

I'm not sure what the solution is for pilots. I do believe that things will get better. With the cost of flight school going up and the pay scales at the airlines being so low there are going to be more guys like myself that just aren't willing to do it. The biggest problem is that life is getting harder in general for everyone, more and more people have the mentality that "what the hell I should go for my dreams". They don't think about the reality of the situation. The only way pay is going to get better is to decrease the supply of pilots. One down a few hundred thousand to go.:D

Hate to say it
 

It's hard to admit it but it's true. I was signed up to join ATP this December but after further investigation into a pilot's life style and pay I have decided against it. Making $20,000 per year for the 1st 1 to 5 years is hard to imagine, especially if you have loan payments to make. I love flying with all of my heart but I also like to have food in my mouth, and be able to take my girlfriend out on a date every so often. Now I'm interviewing for a management position with a local distribution company with starting pay above $60,000 per year. I'm planning on flying gliders on the weekends. This way I can still live the dream of flying and not have to worry about how I'm going to feed myself for the next few years. If I had to live in poverty to fly it would take away the fun of it.

I'm not sure what the solution is for pilots. I do believe that things will get better. With the cost of flight school going up and the pay scales at the airlines being so low there are going to be more guys like myself that just aren't willing to do it. The biggest problem is that life is getting harder in general for everyone, more and more people have the mentality that "what the hell I should go for my dreams". They don't think about the reality of the situation. The only way pay is going to get better is to decrease the supply of pilots. One down a few hundred thousand to go.:D

Pax hate those too. Pax even hate the 757; they don't like long thin tubes. I wish we could return to the days of the wide body. Those are sweet. Still given the choice the public will fly a 737 or A320 long before they will get in to a RJ (70 seats or not).

First let me say I think you made a good choice.

Second, while $20k (or slightly more) is what you'd make as a first year FO, I plan to make in the area of $38k hourly in my second year as an FO. Include per diem and I'm in the $44k range. Not that that means much - you still make more, and are home all the time vs me having 14-15 days off but being home only 8-10 nights per month, and probably have better job stability. I however don't have the Bobs looking over my shoulder :D, and still have thanksgiving, xmas, new years, birthdays, etc. off, and I've just come into my second year.

Third, you have this option. How many people can "just go get a job" making $60k/yr? Not many. Either you are older (say 26-30) with some work experience or you have some expensive degrees (or neither, you are just a smart mofo that networked into that job on your own). I can say hands DOWN if I could land a management job somewhere making $60k+ I would quit my job as a regional pilot IN A HEARTBEAT as would many others IMO :D.

agree with you in every aspect, but do the bean counters agree? they have the final say

Until people quit going for the walmart mentality they're going to be stuck flying transcon in RJs. At $300 round trip you get what you pay for.

5 hours in an MD-80 STL-SEA might be the worst thing I've ever experienced. Worse yet was the fact that the plane was full. That route could have likely supported a 757.

Passengers will never get over that mentality of bigger is better and safer. Heck, I despise riding on "regional" aircraft too, but I pretty much hate flying in general unless I'm up front or watching it from the ground. Sitting in the back is absolutely miserable for anyone over 6'2". I can barely stand to go ANC-SEA when its free in coach. And I WILL NOT shop at Walmart. I hate everything they stand for in business.

Northwind, thank you (seriously). You're helping the cause. I hope I am as well, by not working at a typical regional in the 48 states.

not true; how many U.S. crashes have RJ's been involved in? My recollection.....hardly any. I do agree though that they suck riding in.

I dont think they do. Frequency seems to be the name of the game at the moment.

Given the fact that they have lowered their minimums, can any verify or deny the their APC page is correct in terms of pay or is management still looking for a wage concession from the pilots?


atp

I think the point he was making is not that they are less safe, but the public percieves it to be that way. Much of the reason that turboprops have seen a decline is the fact that the public percieves this as old technology. They have no grasp of how a turboprop engine works nor do they realize that the Q-400 they're getting on has 45 years of lessons learned and changes in design philosophy incorporated into it that that DC-9 doesn't have. They see props and they think "unsafe puddle-jumper that are always crashing".

Anybody catch ABC World News Tonight? They ran a story about a system that's in testing at DFW to reduce runway incursions. I noted about 10 errors in the story. Worst of which, an ATC tape along with an animation listed as a "Private Pilot". The aircraft shown in the animation was a jetstar and based on the callsign and the pilot's accent english was not their primary language. The media doesn't help this perception one bit but the public is too ignorant to care. Why should they? They don't care who or what they're flying as long as they get from point A to B on time and safely.

Good post, but you forgot the third part of the passenger trifecta: On time, Safely, and most of all for the CHEAPEST price. I hear people say all the time that "I don't ride on these things" or "Stupid Puddle Jumper", ect. as they are getting on the dash, but they get on and I haven't seen a single one of the complainers get off before we left. As soon as they arrive safely at their destination it doesn't matter what they rode on, as long as they get there.

Exactly. This is why the 70-100 seat RJ's are the domestic flying future. SUre Boeings/buses will still be flying, but in order for those airlines to compete, they will have to pay "regional" wages. The seperation of classes in this country is going to keep growing. 30 years from now, you're either gonna be REAL rich or (like most) real frickin' poor.

Pilotpip, thanks. I think HotMama slightly misunderstood. I was trying to state the public opinion of safety. For what its worth, maybe they're right. A 747 could be safer, since it will have more experienced pilots. I'm not trying to start a war on pilot time/requirements. I'll stop now.

PS I still hate flying as a passenger in coach on anything. I'll let everyone know if hell freezes over and that changes.

This is the biggest part of the problem. The flying public is unaware of this situation. When I tell people that I will gross less than 40K this year I have had some people say, "You mean 140K, right?"

I tell them the truth.

But the general public thinks we earn a lot, don't work much, the airplane flies itself, we have lots of cute flight attendants, all have long paid vacations, etc.

Most of them simply don't comprehend that a new F/O on a jet aircraft these days earns around 20K, give or take. It just goes right over their head.

Eventually the pendulum will swing in our favor because the pilot factory flight schools will no longer be able to recruit suckers to do this job. The shortage is starting, but it will take a while 'til we feel the benefits of that shortage.

What's scary is that this is true for some major airlines also. :D Some people I know don't even tell others that they are pilots. However, what's even more scary is that a lot of pilots I talked to that are trying to go pro don't really care that the pay is going down.

I had no idea what pilots made when I started learning. I guess that others don't have to worry about trying to support themselves on 1st year pay when they get to the regionals, and for that matter, second and third year at some of the places that hire with really low times.

People need to travel. Whether it is to visit friends and relatives, enjoy a relaxing break away from home, or to do business in distant cities, air travel makes it possible. And transportation of goods by air brings to us the things that we need and want from around the globe. Demand for air transport will be driven by global economic growth and will, in turn, contribute to that growth. The need to expand the existing fleet to meet growing demand, plus the need to replace older airplanes with newer, better ones, creates a market for 27,210 new airplanes worth $2.6 trillion to be delivered over the next 20 years.
(Source: Boeing)

This stuff is really interesting: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pdf/CMO_06.pdf

I will start a new thread titled "Boeing 2025" in case you want to post any comments.

Listen guys I know the past few years have been rough, but in the next few years there is going to be a mass exodus of pilots (retiring), and not only are the big boys going to have to replace them but they are going to need to hire a ton, becuase they have been flying the past 5 years with the bear minimum of pilots. 9/11 hit us pretty hard but I feel that things are slowly starting to turn. I think we are in at a good time. And the money for airline pilots was never all that great for just starting out and that is what most of us are doing, JUST STARTING OUT. Look at the payscale of SWA, FED, UPS, CAL etc........THEY MAKE GREAT MONEY. American, Delta, United even though they used to make much much more, still is pretty good, and that is going to change, especially with the airlines once again making profits. I am excited for all of our futures and just remember we do have the option to go sit in a cubicle and make enough money to have a house, car, blah blah, we are Airline Pilots we do for a living what alot of people can only dream. The fact that I can still say this and be in debt and have to work two jobs to just get by just shows how much I love what I do, and how much you guys all do too. We can all leave the industry but then we would be bitter and hate ourselves for it. Just ask SKYHIGH hell tell ya!:D

WHo is it this time? the vietnam era guys? I've been hearing that old line since my first day of college.:rolleyes: