Pilot Pipeline after new ATP rule
 

I've posted a couple very long articles regarding what the new ATP rule will look like and how this will affect career progression. I've also broken down potential sources of pilots by some numbers.

The hope is this simplifies what is in the NPRM, and how it will affect pilot supply to the regional airlines. The interesting thing is how this changes the Fractional Operators, I was pretty surprised when I started to breakdown what jobs required and didn't require an ATP, and how many of those positions where out there.

The second post also has a link to a simple spreadsheet where you can make your own assumptions and see how they change the total ATP ready pilots produced each year. You can obviously use the data from the website to start to see where we might have a supply problem. Enjoy!

New ATP regulations - Audries Aircraft Analysis

Pilot Training Pipeline by the Numbers - Audries Aircraft Analysis

Pilot Analyst,

if those are indeed your articles you've done a lot of work, though i've seen the diagrams before. in the Pipeline article, the author (or you, if you wrote it) seem to do a lot of assuming. are you familiar that the air carriers you chose in group A, most are not hiring/are in financial trouble, and those in group B are some of the most elite to work for on the corporate side and have always required ATP's long before this rule? Also, just to be clear, the article breaking down the new ATP- just want to emphasize it is a PROPOSED rule, aka, as of right now you need an ATP as we know it today. the restricted ATP is an idea that is an NPRM and has yet to pass. While the article alludes they "should" pass, people are getting confused because this info is pumped out so much they think the restricted ATP is a part of the new ATP law, public law 111-216.

As far as global pilot demand, it is greater in the mideast and asia. granted, here in the US there will be a pilot shortage, but the shortage is going to be at the regional level. The major carriers will always have a feed of pilots from the regionals, be it pilots looking to move up as natural progression or captains and check airmen willing to start over again.

The pilot shortage has yet to hit, as there is little movement at most places right now. few majors are hiring and the ones that are are having small classes.

This ATP rule creates a hazard for regional carriers, since by this time next year when hiring does start to open up, there will be little source for them to pick from. since most regional ssupply 30-40% of mainline flying, not being able to fill seats creates a big issue. once the government and FAA wake up to that and work hard to pass this NPRM or a newer one with ower hours, then that'll take care of some of the issue.

We don't want the issue taken care of.... Most if not all regional pilots standby the ATP rule. If supply can't be met for demand it'll either force mainline to pick up more domestic flying which leads to additional hiring or regionals have to raise pay to make this career more appealing to new comers.

I agree, a lot of assumptions! What makes you believe Part 91 corporate pilots could be a pipeline to the Regionals or Major 121 carriers? Have you ever even spoke with corporate pilots? Many of them consider a move in that direction is a downgrade to lifestyle, pay, benefits and yes...even safety! It is such an arrogant assumption to think everyone who has a pilot license wants to fly for some airline! My forecast: The airline industry as a whole is a blood sucking, life sucking, bottom feeder that is going to get what it deserves!

I don't think te rule will be a problem...low-end regionals were essentially the only place where anyone with less than 1000 hours could get a turbine job. Everybody else (135, fractional, most corporate) required 1000+ or an ATP.

Part 91 is a wild card. From predatory operators who save a buck off the backs of their pilots, to the complete other end of the spectrum. I definitely know of a few corporate gigs that seem to leverage the attraction of circumventing flight instructing for low time pilots. If that corporate gig burns Jet A, the ground is the limit in terms of pay and QOL.

Don't get me wrong, the regionals need to adjust compensation.

Is that all? Good gracious, the fellow put a lot of work into calculating those numbers for you.

Take a chill pill man, he wasn't rude in his delivery. There are a lot of assumptions in the articles. It's good that someone is looking at this, but in a sense, it feels similar to a college term paper where the student has a preconceived notion the airlines are the goal for most aviators, and this individual seems to have limited knowledge of some of the major fractional companies.

I expect the ATP rule to effect the regional airline world...and I think that will be a good thing. As someone else stated, either the major airlines will be required to up their hiring and fly more domestic routes, or the regional airlines will have to make the career path more appealing to attract new pilots (or tempt sideline pilots to return). The regional airlines raising pay will offer another set of difficulties, which will remove their cost effectiveness, and regionals may not be as lucrative of a solution for the majors...once again, returning more jobs to the major airlines, where they belong.

I had a feeling this might be controversial, I don't intend to provide an opportunity for some to blow their gasket. I just wanted to see how the industry could support the amount of pilots needed to support the part 121 operators. This was an exploratory attempt, I figured people might find it an interesting read and perspective. This is by no means the end all be all to pilot supply.

What ideas fell out in the process were a surprise to me. Because, this is an area where there are a lot of assumptions necessary to create a working model, I included a spreadsheet where you apply any assumptions you wish. The key is how will the industry provide the required pilots to staff the 121 world?

Please note this attempt has no bearing on what the goals of pilots are, its purely a numerical game to figure out where pilots could legally be coming from.

The only Regional that is going to have trouble in the near term is the one owned by DL. Too many low time F.O's not flying, I wonder how that will play out?