Aero1900

I was curious what percentage of the regional airline pilot workforce would be required to cover the upcoming mandatory retirements at the majors. To do this, I did my best to estimate the total number of regional airline pilots and the number of mandatory age 65 retirements in the next five years.

I came up with approximately 21,000 reqional pilots and 6,500 age 65 retirements. Obviously these numbers can only be so accurate, but I did the best I could with what is available. When you crunch the numbers you get about 30%. So, less than 1/3 of the current regional pilots could cover all of the jobs at the majors for the next five years.

This does not account for military, corporate and charter pilots who will also be applying for the major airline jobs. There are many variables at play here, however I think this provides at least a glimps at what the future holds for regional pilots trying to get on at the majors.

Thoughts?

Noseeums

I think I'm just amazed that a pilot can do math at all.

You're spot on though. There's no shortage coming. Just some normal hiring followed by crushing stagnation again.

FlyingKat

Don't know where you're getting the numbers, but I've been told by pilots at UAL and American that they are looking at 4-500 retirements a year at each company for the forseable future. Also have heard numbers at Delta and US Airways are similiar. So you're looking at retirements of 2 or 3 thousand a year which is 10-15,000 over the next five years. Also your numbers do not take cargo, LCCs, and overseas flying into account.

I can tell you pilot recruiters are very worried about filling mainline seats 5 years down the road. Plenty of regional captains and military to fill the seats for a while, but the shortage hitting regionals now will be affecting the majors 5 or 6 in the future.

Of course all of this assumes a stagnant situation in terms of fleet size, which we all know won't happen as fleet size fluctuates with the economy.

Looks like there will be many opportunities in the future for everybody, but in this business you never know because the light at the end of the tunnel is usually a freight train coming to clean your clock......

Ramprat

What percentage of these are regional lifers?

JohnnyG

I hear all kinds of extreme numbers from pilots in the industry too, and the math just isn't there. There are probably semi-accurate numbers here on the main APC site that don't even show a mass retirement coming, only the beginning of retirements when there were none.

We expected to see movement, and we are seeing movement. This is all it's going to be, movement.

Sooner or later the music will stop again, and if you don't have a chair you either have to wait until a new game is started or leave the party, because you're out.

Mildred Pierce

That's the question. How many lifers, how many people with skeletons or no degree? Bad personalities? DWI's or too many speeding tickets? Washouts? Seems the glass may be half full. Just maybe....

JamesNoBrakes

Eagle to hire 600!

Kettlebell

what, you mean all us regional FO's are not going to be receiving cold calls in two years, and getting our pick of the legacies?

Some of the things I hear from guys on the line make me wonder why they are getting their numbers from or if they've looked at them at all. As much as I want to believe that there will be a true shortage, the numbers just don't add up.

However, if I wait long enough they'll have to run out of people and take me eventually right???

seafeye

But Kit Darby says there will be a shortage.

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/a/SB100...?mg=reno64-wsj

PilotGuy77

regional airline gives bonus=never before. something is up.... and lets face it no one has a real clue about management decisions concerning hiring. if we did we would not be on here blasting rumors to everyone. Movement, 65, and 1500 likely means something, to the doom and gloom degree I don't know but something. See no math and I said the same thing as everyone else! LOL