This makes a number of assumptions, like everyone making it to age 65 with no retirements. Looks like somebody has done a lot of leg work. Some hard numbers on retirement forecasts for the next decade or so. Now if somebody could post a comparison that showed the forecast amount of military/regional/forecasted ATP qualified aviators, etc, in the same time period that would be fantastic. Don't ask me for questions or validity of the data, if you seek clarification or find some major disparity with the numbers contact the author via the contact info at the bottom of their website.

Where to find 24,223 qualified pilots in the next decade?


Mainline- Airline Pilot Demand Comparison - Audries Aircraft Analysis

 

Seems like we see something like this every month or so.

~yawn

Didn't PSA just give into concessions for some shiny new RJs?

 

Consolidation/route reduction. Outsourcing. It's the way of the future. Way of the future.

 

Ted: "It's an entirely different kind of flying, altogether."

Dr. Rumack, Randy together, "It's an entirely different kind of flying."

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0wxp-Nx...%3D0wxp-NxJny8

. Sorry, you just reminded me of the movie Airplane!

 

He was quoting the Aviator.

 

For the "promise" of at least one new airplane

 

Interesting, thanks! I haven't seen that one yet.

 

Don't forget 1 interview a month at US Air that they better nail or be pay frozen.

 

Wow, sounds like that group of pilots really knows how to negotiate!

 

To me it is clear that a real pilot shortage it's inminent at the regional airline level. I don't think majors will see a real shortage though.Lot's of movement yes, not finding enough qualified applicants, no!

The main goal of the industrie is to reduce the CASM. That means less frequencies with bigger airframes. This will reduce the number of airframes and thus the number of requeried pilots.
Majors will still need the regional flying at a cheaper cost, otherwise they would takeover the flying themselves.

These factors will have a critical role in finding new pilots:

1. Regionals will have to partner with flight schools (sort of what AE has in mind) and help finance ratings for prospect pilots
2. Pay will go up at the regional level, first because they need to attract newhires, and second because they can afford it. If you compare how much a pilot of a 30 seater cost per mile ten years ago (on the whole operating cost per seat picture) with how much it cost today to a 90 seater, it's obvious that today they have a lot of room to play with.
3. Since majors will still need regionals, they won't like their partners cancelling flights. I think we'll see a lot of flow through programs. "Hey, regional flying sucks, but if you come and take it for 2-3 years, we guarantee you that you'll be flying for the big boys soon enough"
4. Some regionals might try to pull an H1 visa sponsorship program, hopefuly ALPA will stop it. It's not easy at all to come up with these programs.
5. If majors pull regional flying out of some markets, there's a chance LCC will get into them. This means new ultra LCC startups paying pilots less than majors or traditional LCC and hiring people with bare ATP. (Don't forget the SJS) "from the Cessna to the Airbus/Boeing"

I don't think all this will happen overnight, but things are going to get very interesting soon enough.

Anyhow, this is my humble opinion.