Shortage Evidence?
#31
I recently read an article from the investor blog Motley Fool. While the story was about Delta and the 717s it is bringing online, buried in it was a statement about Endeavor's 50 seat RJs. It stated that they were going to park all 140 50 seat RJs from Endeavor in 2014 while adding an unspecified number of larger CRJ's. Questions for those who know:
1. Is Endeavor indeed going to park all of it's 50 seaters in 2014?
2. Is the number 140 aircraft accurate(if #1 is true)
3. How many larger RJ's are coming to replace the 50 seaters?(at Endeavor)
Anyway...lets say half the number of aircraft...that's 700 pilots out of work from just one airline in 2014. lets say a 50 aircraft diff..that's 500 pilots. These will be the most junior. They are less likely to be going to Delta etc.
If they wish to stay flying for an airline, they will be looking to fill some class somewhere.
I don't see any shortage for the next year or two if there is any accuracy to my 3 questions.
1. Is Endeavor indeed going to park all of it's 50 seaters in 2014?
2. Is the number 140 aircraft accurate(if #1 is true)
3. How many larger RJ's are coming to replace the 50 seaters?(at Endeavor)
Anyway...lets say half the number of aircraft...that's 700 pilots out of work from just one airline in 2014. lets say a 50 aircraft diff..that's 500 pilots. These will be the most junior. They are less likely to be going to Delta etc.
If they wish to stay flying for an airline, they will be looking to fill some class somewhere.
I don't see any shortage for the next year or two if there is any accuracy to my 3 questions.
#32
The better regionals will always have their choice of applicants. Same as the majors and legacies. It's the bottom feeders that will struggle to fill the seats up front in the coming years. And who really wants to go work for a bottom feeder anyway? SkyWest, Compass, Horizon, etc will be fine. The "mid-tier" regionals will probably be fine too. The bottom feeders like GoJets, Mesa, Great Lakes, etc will likely struggle. And I'm sure there is more upheaval in the future for the regionals. So who knows.
#33
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,154
Likes: 192
They are getting 40 CRJ9, Delta still has 30 large RJs to be awarded before being maxed out on SCOPE. Delta has to park 150-200 fifty seaters as they bring in the 717 and the additional 76 seaters. I think what you read was the plan Delta presented during BK, but it has beens said that Delta it's still evaluating who's airplanes will be parked.
More or less confirmation.Ergo....1000 Endeavor pilots job hunting in the next 14 months.
The beat goes on...more pilots looking for work than there are jobs.
It would be lengthy and involve too many areas to discuss, but I have come to the conclusion that it is going to get worse rather than better for pilots ( and anyone else who labors for his daily bread) in the next few years. More and more airplanes are going to be parked.
Hopefully my conclusions will turn out to be wrong, but I see no reason for optimism at this point.
"They" only call it class warfare when "we" fight back.
#34
Last year I applied to all the regionals with a clean record meeting ATP mins and so on. A few, and I repeat a few, responded and of those a few less offered me an interview (XJT, Republic, C5, Piedmont, one or two others). In the end only one offered me a job. I had a sloppy logbook that did not make me look too good and I may not have given the best interview. But the number of pilots who showed up and the number who went home spoke of no existing shortage. If there were one, and it was just me who lost all those job offers then ok, I can handle the truth. I have fought and won other battles and I can take it. But seeing what I have seen this last year I sincerely think these companies get plenty of applicants and are being picky for whatever reason. Republic in particular, 7 guys showed up the day I did my interview and all went home, guys with jet types, active 135 pilots, lots of good stuff. The claim they can't staff the 400 simply does not line up with what I saw there. As far as I am concerned there may be a massive shortage any day now and I hope there is one; but it has not arrived yet.
#35
Last year I applied to all the regionals with a clean record meeting ATP mins and so on. A few, I repeat few, responded and of those a few offered me an interview (XJT, Republic, C5, Piedmont, one or two more) and in the end only one offered me a job. I had a sloppy logbook that did not make me look real good and I may not have given the best interview either. But the number of pilots who showed up and the number who went home spoke of no shortage. If there were and it was just me then ok I can handle the truth. I have fought and won other wars and my ego is not very fragile. But seeing what I have seen this last year I sincerely think these companies get lots of applicants and are still being picky for whatever reason. Republic in particular is odd as 7 guys showed up the day I did my interview and all went home. The claim they can't staff the 400 simply does not line up with what I saw in person and read on these boards. As far as I am concerned there may be a massive shortage any day now, I hope there is one; but it has not arrived yet.
#36
If they had a real shortage I think they would take a chance, right? You seem to want to park it at my doorstep when the evidence I witnessed clearly said otherwise. You and I have had this same argument before also, and I am dropping it here while I have my afternoon left free. You can believe whatever you wish, but my claim to the contrary stands the pilot shortage is just a wishful fantasy.
#37
If they had a real shortage I think they would take a chance, right? You seem to want to park it at my doorstep when the evidence I witnessed clearly said otherwise. You and I have had this same argument before also, and I am dropping it here while I have my afternoon left free. You can believe whatever you wish, but my claim to the contrary stands the pilot shortage is just a wishful fantasy.
The "shortage" right now is of qualified applicants. I know TSA added a sim to their interview because of how BAD some of the applicants were. There were reports of guys showing up and not being able to fly a simple ILS.
#38
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 280
Likes: 5
I applied to 4 regionals and within a few days all had contacted me and scheduled an interview. I chose xjt because of the solid contract. Regionals no longer choose the applicants, applicants choose the regional. If you show up somewhat prepared you will get a job offer guaranteed. This was right before the r-atp exemption and I had the bare minimums 1520tt, no turbine, no 121, no 135, no internal recs.
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Here is article dated today that factually notes that Great Lakes is cancelling more than just a handful of flights due to staffing.
Great Lake Airlines in Nebraska cancellations due to a shortage of pilots Airline Safety and FAA ...
Seriously, why would anyone consider going there? They weren't even on my radar back in 2006 when I got into the regional world.
Great Lake Airlines in Nebraska cancellations due to a shortage of pilots Airline Safety and FAA ...
Seriously, why would anyone consider going there? They weren't even on my radar back in 2006 when I got into the regional world.
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 103
Likes: 0
Here is article dated today that factually notes that Great Lakes is cancelling more than just a handful of flights due to staffing.
Great Lake Airlines in Nebraska cancellations due to a shortage of pilots Airline Safety and FAA ...
Seriously, why would anyone consider going there? They weren't even on my radar back in 2006 when I got into the regional world.
Great Lake Airlines in Nebraska cancellations due to a shortage of pilots Airline Safety and FAA ...
Seriously, why would anyone consider going there? They weren't even on my radar back in 2006 when I got into the regional world.
“We have been in contact with the top executives of Great Lakes and they well know our concern,” Overman said. “I think they’re are as frustrated or more so maybe than we are because they can’t do anything about it when a pilot quits.”
“I don’t want anybody worried that Great Lakes is going to pack up and go away because that’s not going to happen either,” Skelton said. “They’ve got some issues they’re working through and they’ve got to fix, we agree, but they will be here tomorrow.” Skelton said.
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there was a time when Great Lakes could have done something about pilot retention, unsure at this point
fortunately for GLA pilots, hiring at other airlines is an option, although may require relocating
challenging for all involved, including BFF airline service and federal airport funding
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