The world after TA's
 

Just an honest question but where do we think this is heading for the regionals after a TA is voted down.. Eagle, Republic, Xjet have all passed on these.
Congrats on that for sure but what is the next step? Does anyone see a proper resolution coming out anytime soon? From my perspective if these companies want to pay their pilots less why not then just drag out all of these "discussions" too the unforseeable future. For them it would be better than having to pay say 30k a year to an FO ( just for example ) and just leave everything as is.
I have to apply to some regional sometime soon (sigh) and I'm curious about how things might shape up..
Cheers.

* please real answers need only apply

The world after TA's
 

Here is 1 scenario already being done at Endeavor Air. Management will pull aircraft out of service parallel with attrition. Eventually the airline will:

A) liquidate. In which flying would be returned to mainline if the "shortage" continues. The majors in the future will try to create regionals again when the day comes again when they are all going bankrupt.

B) get flow to attract pilots to work for these wages.

C) get better pay to attract pilots.

My answer would be different if it was 2012, but 2014 and beyond, things have changed. The 1500 hr rule, Far 117, did not exist in 2012. In the short term 50 seater's will be parked. That as well as consolidation might help the staffing shortage. In the long term however, mainline operators are growing. Forecast to make huge profits in 2014. They need the lift. Next time you taxi into DTW or MSP look at the huge number of RJs. Bigger RJs will replace 50 seater's and with the dwindling supply of pilots, mainline hiring and retirements, those regionals that can attract and retain pilots will survive. Many analysts believe instead of an actual pilot shortage, there are qualified pilots out there, especially flying overseas, who are not willing to work for poverty level wages. Airlines that shrink do not give a return on investment to shareholders, I don't care how much unrestricted cash you have. Its like having money under your mattress. Some think mainline will take back the regional flying. It might, but that is years away if ever. Even if you increase the pay and benefits significantly at the regionals, its still cheaper than mainline. That's my take. Management that understands this new normal will grow and prosper, those that don't won't.

RAH CEO's letter stated that he is looking forward to re-engaging the IBT Local and find a contract that works for both sides, how long and how motivated will the company be remains to be seen.

EXJ, I believe they are due to re-engage with their management in the coming week(s).

Silver, I am not sure where they stand in the talks, but it is my understanding that the attrition is mainly coming from the FO ranks as they bail for PSA and Mesa. Right now their management has decided to seek a higher bonus for new hires.

Eagle, management did a whole lot of talking before the vote and during, but have gone silent since. We were threatened with airplanes going to other carriers immediately and that the deals were basically done. AE CEO satiated that the process was almost complete but he got AAG to not award the flying until AE completed the vote on the TA that was built upon the AIP that failed at the MEC level. Almost two weeks have gone and they haven't awarded the flying. Some say that they don't have anyone to take on the flying on their terms (cheap) and other say that they are just waiting to make the announcement. Time will tell.

CommutAir, they enhanced the contract to attract new hires and contrail attrition, we shall see how this all works out.

***Time will tell, I think right now there is not just a waiting game between regional management and their pilot groups, but also between mainline;s management and what move they will make next. Will AAG return to AE, will Delta do something about Endeavor's contract and attrition problem or will United do something with SKW inc. There are many things in flux and is hard to predict how things will turn out, for the mean time I expect management teams to continue trying to grow the lower cost regionals.

I should have also said in my original post but what is an acceptable TA for these companies? Is 30K a year for a 1st yr FO a good start instead of say 24k.. Thats a 25% increase in pay and is livable if your single. I know each company would be different but I'm just trying to figure out if there is a general consensus of an idea about what should happen to the regional s and what can be worked out.
** again real answers non baiting flaming whatever need only apply please.
Cheers again.

Everything is relative, you say that 30k is livable... The same can be said for 24k. It's all relative. An FO with no debt, and living in a smaller city or a city that has a lower cost of living will be able to live on 24k easier than a FO who has a $300 a month loan payment ($3600 a year) and live in a larger city that has a higher cost of living.

Yes, 24k is better than 30k. But for the task we are required to accomplish is not enough. I understand what you are trying to say but it's all subjective. We all agree pay on the FO side is low.

I personally think the starting FO rate should be $40 and FO's should top out at $60. Captains should start at $100 per hour and top around $150.

It's still not ideal, but I just don't see the regional flying being completely absorbed back into mainline. This would at least provide a much better financial package for what is left of the regional world after the impending shakedown. I'd be willing to bet 70% or more would vote in favor of these rates and additional QOL enhancements.

I think it wil take more than 30K it should be between 40-50K. Home based and better quality of life language. Regional management need to figure this out.

cheers

The only other way to get a yes vote out of me would be a seniority list staple at a major. Not a flow, not a guaranteed interview; those aren't worth much. I'd need a seniority number at a major and when my number comes up, I go to class. No interview, no ratio shenanigans. Just a cold, hard number.

Regional pay needs to be a direct extrapolation down from the smallest mainline equipment (A319/320, 737, 717, etc). Right now the graph would look like falling off a cliff. Instead it needs to be a diagonal line.