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Originally Posted by pagey
(Post 1662023)
Those "undesirables" you mentioned are basically where major airline pilots are bred.
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next. It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025? Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional. As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005. We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight. 1. Umpteen number of existing regional companies, now, all with experienced dudes ready to move to legacies. 2. PLENTY of military guys, post-two wars, with masters+ degrees, international flight time, often in heavy C-17/KC-10/etc equipment, to include fighter guys who always get looked at. I will also throw an ADDITIONAL item into this: With the recent "support our troops" and "support our returning veterans" initiatives in place, either officially or practiced unofficially, it is VERY LIKELY that the regional candidates will ONLY be looked at when the military pool is dry/reduced. |
Originally Posted by pagey
(Post 1662029)
Why is Delta, the supposed "cream of the crop", offering things like their garbage EtD program with less than a Delta interview? They know they need to fill those 2 front seats.
the Delta hiring thread on this board has over a thousand replies. Delta doesn't need to look very hard to fill the front seats..... |
Originally Posted by pagey
(Post 1662023)
Those "undesirables" you mentioned are basically where major airline pilots are bred.
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next. It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025? Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional. As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005. We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight. |
Originally Posted by Joachim
(Post 1662041)
You're forgetting longevity and turnover rate. If a stepping stone job retains them for a fifth of the time they will retain five times number of the pilots. There will not be a shortage at the legacy level.
Shortage is the wrong term maybe..... How about "opportunity." |
to test the "shortage", place a $5 ad on Trade a Plane, with the following text, and see how many clowns apply
http://www.trade-a-plane.com/package...package?type=4 LEARJET-35 FO WANTED ATP REQUIRED, 1000 HRS MULTI-ENGINE PA-31/C-421/SIMILAR OR LARGER AND 2500 TT $16K a YEAR, NO ADDITIONAL BENEFITS. NO HEALTH INSURANCE ON CALL 24/7 $5000 DEPOSIT FOR FO/SIC TRAINING, MUST STAY EMPLOYED 24 MONTHS OR YOU WILL BE PENALIZED 15 MINUTE RESPONSE TO HANGAR EXPECTED TO WASH AND CLEAN PLANE AND HANGAR AND "ADDITIONAL DUTIES AS ASSIGNED" WHEN NOT FLYING COLLEGE DEGREE CANDIDATES PREFERRED SUCCESSFUL HIRE WILL PROVIDE HIS OWN CELL PHONE, HEADSET, JEPP CHARTS, ETC TO BE USED DURING FO DUTIES NOTE: THIS IS AN FO POSITION WITH NO EXPECTATION OF CAPTAIN UPGRADE. APPLICANTS MUST UNDERSTAND THIS IS AN FO/SIC POSITION SUCCESSFUL HIRE WILL SUBMIT SIGNED, UNDATED, RESIGNATION LETTER, TO C.P. UPON HIRE. C.P. WILL FILE THIS LETTER IN HIS DESK WHICH WILL BE USED AT ANY MOMENT FOR ANY REASON. EMAIL: [email protected] :rolleyes::cool: whooaa....my inbox is already lighting up...."25 new messages" |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 1661709)
Let's face it; the clumsy, clueless clods in airline management could f up a cup of coffee and they will f this up too. In fact, they've ALREADY f'ed it up.
Only thing to do now is sit back and watch the unfolding disaster with bewilderment. You seem to be suggesting that airline management, (regional or legacy) gives a flyin' flip about the future of their company and/or the industry. THEY DON'T!!! All they care about is TODAY! Today's salary. Today's bonuses. Today's stock options. By the time the shirt hits the fan, they'll have their hundreds of millions in the bank and they will have already punched-out leaving the next batch of stoolies to deal with the messes they have created. And by the way, this corporate "leadership" mindset is not unique to the airline industry. It's pervasive in all of corporate America. The "I got mine" style of senior management is rampant in the good ol' U.S of A. |
Originally Posted by Slick111
(Post 1662067)
****************************
You seem to be suggesting that airline management, (regional or legacy) gives a flyin' flip about the future of their company and/or the industry. THEY DON'T!!! All they care about is TODAY! Today's salary. Today's bonuses. Today's stock options. By the time the shirt hits the fan, they'll have their hundreds of millions in the bank and they will have already punched-out leaving the next batch of stoolies to deal with the messes they have created. And by the way, this corporate "leadership" mindset is not unique to the airline industry. It's pervasive in all of corporate America. The "I got mine" style of senior management is rampant in the good ol' U.S of A. Stock went down today ? Layoff 5000 people. Stock goes back up. Upper management hits the country club and celebrates. |
Originally Posted by satpak77
(Post 1662070)
Good points, but in its ultimate, literal, interpretation, publicly traded companies management have responsibility/accountability ONLY to the shareholder. Not employees, suppliers, etc.
Rrrrrrrriiiiiiigggghhhhhttt. "In theory",.....(and in speeches, town hall meetings, and press releases),...... managements sole responsibility is to the shareholders. If that were true, however, management would not accept (and boards of directors would not authorize) the absurd compensation packages that they receive,....because anything over and above a reasonable pay package should be going to the shareholders. Meanwhile, in Realville,..... Dougie's taking $30 million out of his shareholders pockets. |
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
(Post 1661989)
No, but claiming there is a shortage now or soon is not supported by anything very good.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created. http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...psfa0046ce.jpg http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...psbe514fca.jpg Is there a data source detailing ages of active ATP/comm holders? I'll look later if no one has found anything. |
Originally Posted by Slick111
(Post 1662089)
******************
Rrrrrrrriiiiiiigggghhhhhttt. "In theory",.....(and in speeches, town hall meetings, and press releases),...... managements sole responsibility is to the shareholders. If that were true, however, management would not accept (and boards of directors would not authorize) the absurd compensation packages that they receive,....because anything over and above a reasonable pay package should be going to the shareholders. Meanwhile, in Realville,..... Dougie's taking $30 million out of his shareholders pockets. I mean, you do know that, yes ? Or did someone tell you otherwise. |
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