Embraer and Trans States Sign Deal for up to 100 E175-E2s


Any theories on what they plan on doing with these jets?

Re-fleeting compass or GoJet?

Trans States if the MRJ gets pushed back further?

Now TSH has 50 MRJ's with 50 options and 50 E2 with 50 options all on order with delivery currently within a few years of each other. That's up to 200 new jets.

TSA currently has the oldest fleet, and compass will soon have the newest(ish) with gojet chilling in the middle with CRJ 700.

 

These will go to compass. They already have the certification. Not sure if hulas will start merging certificates or not by then. It's so far down the road anyone's answer is just a best guess at this point.

 

Any talk of who these will go to or fly for is foolish. They won't be around until 2020, and flying will NOT be awarded until 2019 at the earliest. This is just TSH hedging their bets, much like SkyWest did, that UA or DL will come calling for some newer larger RJs around that time.

 

Hopefully by then it'll be UA or DL flying this type of equipment themselves.

 

They'll ride the ERJ wave untill they can't anymore. They'll figure out what to do with you then. Most likely furlough with preferential hiring and longevity at compass or gojets. Meanwhile they're still trying to figure out how to snap the MRJ together without breaking, by 2018 hopefully

 

So, which is it? You flip-flop more than a pair of sandals.

 

But thats where all the fun is. Opinion bassed theoretical discussion.

How easy is it to get out of orders like this? You would think a privatly held company wouldn't make billion dollar decisions on a hope and prayer whim. This is only five years away. Im sure they have tenative plans for these jets and im sure like you said, we'll never know untill 2019 what they are, if they haven't cancelled by then.

 

Furlough scenario only works if there is a surplus of pilots which there is not now, nor is there forecast to be at any point in the foreseeable future. Some kind of integration/merger is the most likely option. If something changes in the amount of available pilots, then the furlough option is possible, as I'm sure it is the one most desired by management.

 

Delivery dates can always change. If the MRJ tanks, I won't be surprised to see the delivery dates move forward.

 

Im sure they fully intend to ride the erj out as long as possible. especially because everyone else is gonna jist systematically park them. But, it is foolish to let one of three major seperate sources of income simply peter out. We already know the mrj is currently planned for TSA when it delivers in 2017 though that too could change. Certification and proving costs would likely mean TSA would get them all as they come online slowly replacing the erj. Thats what makes the most business sense, provided ual or aa or dl will go for 80 seat two class regional jets. Compass doesn't need refleeting as much as tsa and will likely not get the mrj though its onteresting that tsa will be in the midst of contract negotiation as the time for the mrj comes around. They may try pulling a gojet again though in this labor market that wouldn't work well.

Everyone forgets tsa once had J31 and J41 and refleeted with the erj as the J41 market died.

However, the vp of holdings did mention to our new hire class a year ago they were having trouble marketing the mrj90 and might opt for the mrj70 instead. that is worrysome, as the mrj70 will not commence untill after the 90 is certified. It does however demonstrate that they do plan ahead and are actively trying to place the new airplanes they ordered despite delivery being a few years away still.

I do honestly believe them when they say 'they are currently persueing any and all possible avenues for growth' we just one take money losing contracts or huge risks so that really restrics how many avenues for growth are available.