upgrade vs. wholly owned?
 

The time has come for me to apply to a regional. I've got ATP mins/70 multi/ATP written. I'm a single guy that is willing to make just about anything work. Which regionals should I be targeting? I know a lot of ppl say not to chase an upgrade, however I find it hard not to when is see "most junior captain hired 2007" vs "most junior captain hired 2012". Seems like a no brainer. Am I missing something? I also think that given the volatility within industry that flying for a wholly owned regional is a smart move.

Can anyone throw me some insight on which airlines to target and why?

I was going to say something that might get me banned, but I will refrain.

Chase the upgrade. It is the biggest regret in my career. The worst thing you can do is go to a stagnant regional. Keep in mind, nothing is guaranteed and things change all the time, but any regional with 2000+ pilots would have to hire a 1000 below you for you to upgrade. Think of the feasibility of that the time that takes vs a regional with 1000 on its list.

Not that I'm going to suggest my carrier, but do some research before you overstate the stability of the wholly owned carriers.

I'm not saying any regional is immune from hitting low times, but many wholly owned regionals have a poor history of stability simply because they are wholly owned and not flexible or diversified. When the major partner pushes them for cuts or else, they either accept, die or get bought off. ASA, Comair, Mesaba, Endeviccle with DL, Expressjet and Continental, AmericanEaglevoy and AMR. All pretty rocky history in last 5 years, mostly for having no leverage. Horizon I hear is a decent place, but has stagnated as it cant pursue new opportunities being AS only, and has a long upgrade. I'm not an East coaster and know very little about Piedmont & PSA, though everyone is aware of the reputation PSA pilots paved for themselves recently.

Wholly owned carriers don't seem to have any more stability than contractors, if by stability you mean predictable seniority/upgrade progression without furloughs. If anything they have been worse over the last decade...when mainline needs to dump capacity fast, the wholly-owned carriers have served admirably as capacity accumulators. If you cancel a contractor's flying before the contract expires, you still have to pay the contract unless you can work out a deal.

COMAIR: They got shafted so bad a new word had to be created to describe it: "Comaired"
Eagle: Raped during BK.
XJET: Extorted for concessions under threat of being sold, then sold anyway, and soon to be dramatically downsized, perhaps even comaired.

Every flow-through agreement to date has been a total abortion, with just a handful actually flowing up. In fact at Envoy, a number of senior folks were flowed up against their will (large pay and seniority cuts for their twilight years).

From a pilot perspective I can't see any real reason to prefer (or avoid) a wholly-owned. All else being equal, with a wholly-owned you might get slightly better non-rev priority for your family.

Go for somewhere smaller, that is currently getting plenty of airplanes (hopefully positive growth when it comes to total fleet number), has a fast upgrade, isn't stagnant, and with bases you are okay living in. Since you want the fast upgrade you might end up on reserve as a captain for a while if things slow down at that point, or you might end up holding a decent line stuck as an FO for a while. Just because a place has a fast upgrade now doesn't mean something won't happen to stop that.

The only good choice you can make is based on the facts now. Rumors are just that and this industry is full of them. Things can and will change and there is no telling where you will end up, but hopefully you can get on somewhere that has lots of movement. That means people are generally pretty happy and moral is higher. Once it's gets stagnant it gets negative quick.

You must not be a pilot. You obviously don't understand how the industry works. Your response has nothing to do with the OP question.

With that said, asking that question on this forum will get a thousand different responses. Everyone has different experiences. I worked for a wholly owned and it turned out bad. The mainline partner can do whatever they want...not having to abide by any contracts. They can give and TAKE airplanes as much and as often as they want.
Quick upgrades are happening at several airlines. SKW and ExpressJet have long upgrade times while Compass, Republic, Mesa, etc have quick upgrades. Research their contracts or what their pilots have to say if you can't get your hands on a contract. If you're willing to relocate...that might be your best move. I'm a little biased..Compass has super fast upgrade times, a decent contract, adding 20 more airplanes over the next year and a half, and flowing 160 more captains to Delta. No brainer. But like I said...I'm biased. I have really enjoyed my time at Compass so take that for what it's worth.

Don't forget Endeavor. Nothing good has happened since Delta made them a wholly owned.

It's pretty simple, go to the one that has new planes coming. If you don't go to the one that has planes coming but has the faster upgrades today, you are gambling. The only thing that makes your career bearable at the regionals is having as many seniority numbers below you as possible. Only way that happens quickly is if there's new flying.

This is true. ^^^ Go off of what we know today. Speculating is easy to do and will get you in trouble. Seniority is everything.

Not exactly true IMO. I would argue that guys who took the flow under a certain set of circumstances, but were not afforded the opportunity to flow up under those circumstances should not have been forced to flow later under much different circumstances.

I know opinions differ on this specific situation, but the point I was making was that flow-through programs have done more harm than good as far as I can see. Not a great track record.

Just don't PSA your situation and you will be fine. Do whatever your mind is telling you.

Also, as for upgrade at your time, upgrade will be more like 3-4 years depending on the regional. Most minimums are 3000-4000 hours. At 600 hours per year average with EVERYONE else in the company trying to do the same, it might take longer than you think. Also, they won't lower the minimums because there are plenty of 5k hour FOs out there willing to jump ship if DECs happen.

As many have stated, wholly-owneds aren't doing much better than anyone else. Read through a little of the Warning about Endeavor to Delta (ETD) thread and you'll get a good idea. Everyone agrees a quick upgrade is a positive thing, the hesitance to chase one comes from the possibility that when you get to a regional, upgrade time might get a lot longer before you upgrade. Research trends, who's getting new airplanes and who isn't, and who has 50-seat jets. 50-seat jets are no longer economical and have become liabilities, not assets. That's why I'd recommend against a carrier like Air Wisconsin, even though they might have a respectable contract.

A while ago, I made a post about my recommendations. It's just my humble opinion - I'm still in training and don't have any actual time on the line, and some called me on that - but I did a lot of homework and spoke to numerous friends in the industry, and this is what I came up with:

Republic had a quick upgrade? That's news to me

Neither is an asset. A quick upgrade is only good as long as there are people behind you to hire. A wholly-owned is only good if the ownership group actually wants to make it not suck.

The biggest thing you can do to make your life slightly less hellish at the regional level:

Live in base. Either move to a base, or get hired at a company that has a base where you are.

I personally went to 2 different regionals chasing the "quick upgrade"; one in particular at a smaller airline with bases I liked, and new planes coming on property. Sounds a lot like the advice a lot of you folks are giving, right? Now I'm at the very bottom of the FO list on reserve about to get "Comaired". Looking back I wish I chose a regional that had:
1. A base I live in or would like to live in
2. Moderate movement/stability
3. A Decent contract ($ and QOL)
Unfortunately times have changed since 8 years ago when I started this endeavor (pun intended) and the regionals that had the aforementioned qualities will be shrinking or also getting "Comaired". In the end it's simply luck and timing, my friends.

Go to a regional that makes absolutely no sense right now, that way in a couple years it'll be the cream of the crop.

This is unfortunately the most reliable piece of advice anyone has given regarding the regional airlines.

^^^that. I wish this forum had a like button

So, Great Lakes or Air Wisconsin would seem to be the lead contenders?

<sarcasm>Stamp your ticket to Delta at Endeavor . . . </sarcasm>

My advice if you're totally set on this horrible career is to go someplace with a potentially quick upgrade. Keep in mind I'm not saying this to "get in, and get out" as quickly as you can to a major. Most majors are trending towards overall total time, PIC is not the golden ticket it once was. I'm saying go for the quick upgrade because you'll make more money as a CA then you will as a FO at any regional, including the "good contract" ones. Also keep in mind there really are no good contracts in the regionals, some just aren't as bad as others. We're all turds in the same toilet bowl, increase your qol with seniority as fast as possible.

Go to Compass if you can get hired. They are a small company with attrition at the top of the list and are scheduled to increase their fleet by almost 50% very soon.

The pilot group is relatively young and they have bases in three time zones, though I recommend moving to base and flying as much as possible, at least once you upgrade.

The goal isn't to go to the best regional, the goal is to go to a major. If you move to base you can fly a bit more than your commuting colleagues which may allow you to get hired at a major a little sooner. Every seniority number counts so you want to get hired as soon as possible. Some may consider moving to base and flying more a sacrifice you should consider it an investment. A bonus to living in base is that you can be home drinking a beer while the guy you were flying with is still waiting for his flight or settling into the crew room for a terrible night's sleep.

Compass is the only regional I would even consider sending my resume to in this current environment.

You have to realize that working in the airline industry in general is a gamble. You could loose your medical or get furloughed at any time with no notice. Go somewhere that has a base in a city you want to live where you can enjoy your life outside the airline. Life is too short to not be happy, so go somewhere that will allow you to be happy outside of "work". You may not realize it now, but the novelty of being an airline pilot will wear off. No one thinks we are as cool as we think we are, it is not glamorous anymore. Find somewhere with a base you like, and enjoy the fact that you're not driving a desk like most of your friends :)

An excellent idea.

Key word is "if"

it's kind of like the astronaut selection process at CPZ

Moving to base is good advice, however bases are aubject to change. I went to Eagle because of the LAX base that no longer exists. Everything in this industry is a gamble including bases.

This. Why do instructors with bare ATP mins think they will be ready to be LEFT SEAT PIC OF A 76,000 LBS JET IN LESS THAN TWO YEARS?!?!?!

Blows my mind. No I did not type with the caps locked by mistake.

Why does China think it can put a 250 hour pilot who can barely land a Cessna in the right seat of a widebody?

In comparison, I think America will fare just fine. Especially when "bare ATP mins" have gone up 700% from a few years ago.

Fair point. I, personally, think there should be much higher mins on captain requirements. I was one of those quick upgrade jockeys onto a multi-turbine aircraft with a handful of hours (not even ATP Requirements). I'm surprised I made it as far as I did when I look back on my level of piloting skill at the time. It's because I can relate to that I say this.

In practice, what makes being PIC any harder? I'm not on the line yet so I don't have any real authority on this, what was your experience?

PIC is actually an easier job, until an emergency, or IROP.

....and this thread is now officially off-track.

To the OP: a lot of guys are upset at PSA for under-cutting Eagle/Envoy, but the truth is, this industry requires you to look out for yourself. Go to a smaller carrier getting bigger (like PSA), or one with a lot of attrition (Compass), fly your tail off to reach the mins required to be captain, upgrade, and fly your tail off to reach 1000-1500 TPIC.

While all of that is going on, try to become an instructor or check airman to put some polish on your resume, and work on building your network of pilot friends that can help you out later.

Some airlines are not as well thought of by pilots as others. I can remember well when many would not give a Mesa guy the time of day, and Eagle wasn't far behind. GoJet was treated even worse. Go where you need to go, which might be one of these listed. Their pilots are moving on to the majors, which means if you play your cards right and stay out of trouble, you might do the same.

One piece of advice you will see a lot on here that you should heed is move to the base. I'll go a step further and say move to the base if it's in a major hub for the mainline partner. At some point, you will need to commute, possibly for years. If you don't need to now, then don't.

Honestly, the ship has sailed at PSA. Compass is still a good bet. Mesa might be filling up too but last time I had a Mesa jumpseater, he told me upgrade is down to 1 year!!! Of course the guys that are upgrading have prior 121 experiences to meet the minimums but still, that's ridiculous!

Here's the advice of the year...

GOTO PIEDMONT!!!!

I'm not joking. PDT is currently in a worst position than PSA when AA threatened PSA. I'm assuming they will take the deal or will probably close shop. If they do get a new fleet, watch how fast things will move there. But grow a thick skin because you will be called the next endeavor or PSA scumbags.

Probably not bad advice, you'll be on the ground floor of a hiring wave.

If quality of life items such as living in base without commuting are not that big of a deal to you because you are not married with no kids etc.. then by all means try and go for the low upgrade time.

I can't think of a #2 priority that isn't low upgrade time can you?

Ship sailed at PSA? Most junior captain in December 2015 hasn't been hired yet. PSA would still be just as good as Compass, especially if you live in the southeast and you get two interviews at AA (not a guarantee but better than nothing like Compass has).