Raw statistics are just that raw. You are working from one end of the concept, completely ignoring details like ATP + live person does not equal potential airline candidate. Working from my end of the concept, I am talking to the very people who do the interviewing and hiring, the field is beyond thin, its almost empty. So you can take the position there are X amount of these flavor pilots so there is no pilot shortage, quick email all the regionals who are offering signing bonuses of ever increasing amounts, and one is offering a retention of sorts(according to the interwebs). Sorry your theory is flawed at some level, I have been a Captain for 10 years, and the experience level of the F/Os I have been flying with has been falling every year. I fly with guys who went from the right seat of a 172 to CRJ, freight dogs are far and few in between. My position while anecdotal is shared by many of my contemporaries. When I was hired, we had few CFI only guys and they were pretty high time CFIIs with lots of MEL dual flown and given. Today that example is the Unicorn of the regional industry. Don't listen to the industry, watch the money, it will tell all. FAAs motto, "To Promote and Regulate"

I use rational thought. There is no way there are 70,000 people sitting around paying $100 or more a year in the hopes the airlines raise their pay tomorrow.

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/res...dia/201325.pdf

Reference: FAA 2012 Airman medical statistics..

115K total effective 1st class medical certificates active.

All international students in the US get a 1st class medical.

Many US students do as well.

These people on the ATP list can also have 2nd or 3rd class medicals and still be considered active by FAA definition. You have not removed a single person from the (150k) active ATP number with that statistic, in fact you indirectly support the notion that a lot of them not only are active ATPs they are airline-ready and are keeping their airline credentials current.

Not true. I worked at two different flight schools with a heavy amount of Chinese contracts and all of those students got a second class when they came over here.

Holding an ATP and 1st class is different than airline ready.

Increasing first year pay might encourage some of the guys who are actually qualified to give it a shot, I just don't think that will ever happen.

Is there a shortage of ATP's? No.

Is there a shortage of qualified guys willing to work for crap wages? Yes.

What will we be left with? Unqualified guys willing to work for peanuts, with places like ALLATPS and Riddle this pool will remain deep for years.

I agree, there is a shortage of guys who will work for $21 an hour...

I'd load the freight and fly the route at night in ice for > $40 (with one week on and one off of course), but $21???

;) my .02

That is false. I worked for a large 141 school with 99% foreign students. They all had third class medicals.

So what airlines are currently filling classes with no problems? PSA and TSA? Compass ?Is that it?

The funny thing about 1st year pay is that it used to make sense.. when that job was going to some fresh CPL with 300hrs.. but that is no longer the case.

Now Airlines are required to hire more experienced candidates than before, but the rest of the seniority isn't voting for better 1st year pay! Since they "suffered through it, you can handle it too" is the attitude.

What just doesn't make sense is the same disparity in 1st year pay at the Majors.. to Pay back the company for training?

Yes, I had a few foreign students and none of them went out and got 1st class right off the bat.

Well, then I will eat some crow. I know at many flight schools where I taught, everyone got 1st class medicals.

I worked for a small 141 school (about 80 or so) that taught predominately Chinese students. All students required a First Class medical. Take it for what you will.

Yeah, we used to tell any student thinking about going to an airline to get a first.

Where did those numbers come from? How do they even know that the medicals are up to date? I think that information is protected by HIPAA.

The reality is the 300hr pilots from a good school were way better pilots than most of the 1500hr pilots we are getting now. IOE has become basic flight instruction and average oe hours is way up.

There are several reasons first year pay is low just about everywhere.

1) The company doesn't want to pay. Ever. If they could get the first year to be an internship, they would.

2) Most unions don't value first year pay very highly. It's short-lived, and pilots will spend much more time on other years of the payscale. They'd rather negotiate better pay later on, and so giving the company a low first-year rate doesn't use up any "bargaining chips" as it were.

3) The union wants the highest-top out possible. Your dues are paid as a percentage. 2% of 240 bucks is a lot more than 2% of $60. Since at many carriers there is a large segment of the pilot group that is topped-out, the union stands to gain much more by negotiating the highest rate possible for the step of the payscale that the largest number of pilots are on. A high first-year number looks good on paper, but doesn't really yield any benefits for the union, and may use up valuable bargaining power. This is the same reason that pay increases are usually negotiated as percentages. Flat dollar-amounts applied equally would be much more fair, but stretching the top of the scale pays more in the long run.

Than most? That's an outrageously unfounded statement. I know "most" of the people around my class got through just fine with no extra sims.

Obviously this depends on where you work. Mesa is washing out 40-50%. Other airlines have 95% pass rates. One hires any warm body over the phone, the other attracts more qualified applicants. Hmmm.

Hey, I guess you don't mind the FAA implementing the MPL framework to create yet a 3rd class of pilots?

So mesa has a 40% washout rate?

Why are today's 1500+ hour new hires having any trouble at all in training? I thought the 1500 hours was supposed to deliver a more competent pilot to the front door of the airlines, wasn't that the intent? I was hired at 1300 with 700 dual given, not really all that much below today's mins. I am not super-pilot, but never required any additional training.

What is so different in the quality of the hours people are getting today?

Because when the well runs dry, they will take anyone. Serious aviators need not apply.

I would suspect it has less to do with hours, and more to do with an extended period of hiring from a reasonably small pool of applicants. For the last couple of years, pretty much anyone with the appropriate ratings could get a job at almost any regional carrier. The motivated people are always on the front end of things. The less motivated are also likely to be the less skilled.

There are many people that struggle with a faster paced training that is common now in compared to years past. When all students were 300 hour pilots, training was much slower and it was more about individual training. Now, with everyone at 1500 hours (and many lateral moves with guys coming in with 5000+ hours) training is faster paced and you are expected to be more proficient.

After 1500 hours in a C172, you are really not much of a better pilot than you were after 500 hours. Many pilots do not have any real world experience, and instructed to get all of their time. No turbine experience, no real cross country experience, no experience in icing/convective weather, no experience in complex airspaces (DC, NYC, LAX).

Let's talk about something else that's happening.

A friend who was a CFI at a big pilot mill school that flys a bunch of Seminoles and turns out garbage pilots told me that a group of his instructors used to just log flights (night, multi, and x/c) that other instructors were flying just because they hated the job that much and "seniority is everything", they "were ready to fly jetz".

Hmm, wonder why people are having issues?

It sounds like your friend might be from a certain flight school in the Pacific Northwest.

Oh, they were soooo bad. A bit strict about check-list memorization, not so much about flying the airplane.

But what good is 1000 hours of right-seating and fair weather flying anyway?

Not good. Steep turns and flying the same ILS and VOR approach 475 times doesn't help much either.

Where I might be concerned as a 121 captain is some doof with 10 hours of night, zero actual, 4 failed rides, and three extra IOE trips saying "I got dis bra".

exactly true, a study was done by UND and found that most pilots start to become harder to train once they reach a certain amount of hours, usually around 1300 or so. the pilot gets into the complacent mode, it would be like me trying to give a 40 year driving lessons, theyre not gonna listen to jack.

No, that's a highly erroneous, inaccurate statement. FaceBiter is widely known to dislike Mesa and despite his sense of humor occasionally makes baseless comments. This is one of them. In classes of 25, typically one or two, maybe three, don't make it through. And even then, frequently it's related to English-as-a-second-language issues.

Yeah I don't think there's a single person on all of APC who doesn't realize that FaceBiter obviously has some major, major beef with Mesa.

Prior121 and I are pretty sure FaceBiter is one of the ppl who was asked to leave from our class--solid person, just kind of stepped on the wrong toes at the wrong time...I hope the best for them.

I don't question your facts, but the flip side of those "facts' is the simple reality that regionals have had trouble filling classes and legacy carriers are seeing a reduction in the average hourly qualifications of their interviewees.

I come from a GA background and still enjoy hanging out at the local airport in Danbury, CT as well as the airport in Waterville, ME. For every airline pilot I know in my area, I know 2 guys with ATPs locally that fly KingAirs, Aerostars, Gulfstreams, etc. Nearly all those guys are in their 40s and 50s with kids and lives that they would not give up to come fly for some regional or major at half their current pay.

Yes, I'm sure there are many ATPs out there, but the number of ATPs that are willing to START a career at the bottom are far, far, far fewer and MAY not be enough. Certainly the reality of regional classes seems to hint that there may be a problem.

UND is far from being unbiased source, since they have a strong interest in getting their product (young pilot puppies) to be seen as ideal new hires.

Don't know the total number obviously - but my local airport is full of ATP's who are still flying (for fun). A lot of these guys may have flown professionally during their younger years, we have a lot of ex-corporate guys who now on airplanes along with retired TWA guys. I'm one of those former 121 ATP's who'd have interest in getting back for the right situation, but that's not happening.

There may be a pilot shortage looming at some point, but right now it's just a pay shortage that keeps guys on the sidelines.

[mod note]

Please stay on topic and refrain from making insults. Several posts were removed from this thread.

Airline Pilot Demand
 

*Generic pilot shortage comment*

I'm not sure why my previous reply disappeared, but I'm repeating what your boy prior121 was saying. Sim instructors are saying 50-60% pass rates due to the FAA shutting down the "bust your way to a type rating" that was going on. Not baseless my brotha.

Be well, FB.