Airline Pilot Demand
 

How accurate is this website?

Airline Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

According to the website, this is how many pilots regionals will need in 2015 alone.

PSA:679
TSA:617
Republic:554
Mesa:356
Skywest:305
Compass:247

These are just some top ones....does this seem accurate? Also, what's optimum staffing for these regionals? 11-13 pilots per aircraft?

Republic is going to need a lot more than that with how many they are losing from the bottom of the list.

Looks like the watering hole is drying up fast.

That number looks about right for PSA given how many pilots we have now and how many I hear we're trying to get to.

I think PSA plans for 10.5 pilots per airframe. I've heard other regionals have very close numbers. I don't work in the DO's office though so I of course don't know for sure.

Airline Pilot Demand
 

It's like the flipping Flat Earth Society in here or something.

People who understand the airline industry realized months ago that PSA actually signed a contract that was good for them, and introduced increased pay and QOL to a pilot group that had been neglected for years. And if they didn't sign the contract, they would all be looking for new jobs elsewhere.

Then you come on this board and see comments like this.

Granted, the majority of the people here are not airline pilots, and are just looking for every opportunity to troll. I pity you. I really do.

Can Republic really get that many guys next year. I thought the word was out on them. Most of their pilot group seems really unhappy.

I don't know. But didn't they just get awarded a bunch of 175s for delta? I don't know any jet that shiny to make most people wanna work for them..

only 9

and that negates any losses from the merger of CHQ

upgrade is still ~6 years

With the Q400 and CHQ going away, but the 59 EJETS, is that a gain or loss of air frames?

I am a airline pilot. And I generally hate pilots. You signed a contract that was good for YOU. It is not good for your peers , not for your fellow coworkers that follow behind you, not good for our profession.
I pity you my friend.

Don't you work for gojet or something?

He's just jelly he didn't hold out for the 12 grand.

Yeah I don't work at envoy. Here I thought fb was cool

"He" as in not you. I was talking about clt bro. We still dawgs.

*brofist*

From a very reliable source, SkyWest Airlines wants to go from hiring 70 a month to hiring 100 a month.

I seriously doubt they are even close to those numbers.

Is skywest fulfilling that goal?

I thought I read it's 50 a month currently, it seems as if they're doing it. Bunch of talk about beefing up the recruitment team so I guess 70 might be a possibility.

I guess the other question is, are they able to get 50 people a month in class?

There's people that interview just for the sake of it. Then again, It's tedious work to prep for a skywest interview, and not take the offer.

They've been doing 40-50 for awhile.

it was a net loss...now a wash with the 9 delta flying...but rumors say some of those planes are coming from the republic side

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Not in a million years will that happen

I might go interview with the rev just so I can tell them where to shove it.

Nah.

And your point is what, exactly?

Supply will outpace demand for pilots for the next ten years like it always has. By a lot.

Fact: there are about 80,000 airline pilot jobs here in the US, based on data culled from APC employer lists.
Fact: There are about 150,000 active ATP pilots around to fill those jobs, based on public FAA airmen data. Active means they are keeping their medicals current.

That's almost a 2:1 excess of current ATP pilots, and we have not dipped into the pipeline which contains thousands of eligible Comms and CFIs.

http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...ps3cf5e9a8.jpg

Keep selling that one, no one is buying it, specially the airlines. Having chatted with many of the SKYW recruiters, the well is drying up fast and they are drilling into new areas. The reality is before the industry goes to the political effort of buying politicians(expensive) to get the regs modified, they will take the next most logical approach, hire the competitions talent, and if they won't hire on to a regional they will just not renew/award their contracts. This will furlough pilots onto the street and since TSA(or fill in the blank) will be hiring pilots, being the sheeple they are will rush to the regional that is hiring CQFOs. There are plenty of regionals out there to ravage.

I'm not selling, I'm telling. Those are facts up there, not my personal opinion. If you prefer a recruiter's sales pitch to the facts then be my guest and pitch the sale for them- but you will be factually wrong.

Why no annotations or source materials reference, absent that its a sales pitch. ATP without a medical? How bout age 65, Commercial Certificates issued to foreign students, and the largest variable of all the people with certificates listed, are you so obsessed with this job to think that EVERY certificate holder listed wants to be an airline pilot? Sad fact, it isn't the money keeping the other half of your pilots away from this job, its the job its self. The thought of having to commute 6 hours on a plane that they may or may not get on due to loads, crappy pay, benefits and to opportunity to work any of the 365 days of the year, or 6 of 7 days a week, or any of the 24 hours in a day. And/or stay in any number of nasty biologically contaminated hotel rooms, some at their own costs. Face it even major pay is less than it was in the '80 without any adjustments. So yes, even if your chart was even remotely accurate, it means nothing without context. This industry has gone down the one way street, of self destruction, of its own accord. Any pilot with the ability to do a Google search can find out everything they need to know in .06 seconds.

It says in the same post what it's based on.

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of variables that you are not mentioning.

Of the ATP's, how many of them are part 121 pilots, and want to be part 121 pilots? How many fly helicopters, or corporate, or part 135, or are in management.

Approximately 10% of a regionals seniority list are management, check airmen, or instructors in most cases. These are non-flying pilots that still have their ATP and medicals.

Also, how many commercial licenses have been issued to people that are not US Citizens and will be going back overseas. At the major flight schools, more than half of the students are non-citizens. In some cases, it is 80%. The number of commercial licenses and CFI's is misleading.

Heck, my CFI was in his late 70's and still had his ATP and current medical. He is obviously not available to go to the airlines, but still instructs on the side. Are you counting him, and the other 65+ year olds in the "Active ATP" lists is they have their medical? Some guys like to fly their small planes for years after they retire from the airlines.

I think the definition of 'ACTIVE' being holding a current medical is marginal at best.

I wonder how many of those 150,000 active ATP's have retired and keep their medicals up to date for GA flying privileges...

There is a significant downward trend in the ATP and Commercial data that you aren't taking into consideration. This is well before the retirement boom was scheduled to start. If there are 150,000 ACTIVE ATPs, where are they? Are there really 70,000 pilots sitting around keeping their medical current just IN CASE they get the call? That just proves that your data is inaccurate or painfully incomplete. I'm going with both actually.

I find it way more likely that there are 150,000 Active ATPs currently employed in commercial aviation than having 70,000 people on the sidelines waiting with anticipation that they get a call from a major. That's ludacris.

Where is the spike in the graph for all the FOs that got ATPs the last few years? Why are there 100,000 CFIs? There also should be a big down spike after the 2008 recession as aviation loans dried up. I don't doubt the numbers but they look a little suspect. And the regionals are most definitely hurting for pilots right now, I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise. That doesn't mean there is a shortage but 30K retention bonuses tells me there is pressure on the supply in some form.

There are five at my little thirteen hanger airport alone.

I'm not going to sit here and argue about this stuff. Take it up with the FAA statistics people. If you wish to believe there's a pilot shortage I doubt any number of facts will deter you anyway. The airlines are only short on people who will work for low wages, that's all, and it is not a pilot shortage by any common definition of the term.

And your terrible facts suggest that there are 70,000 people waiting in the wings. Think a little man. That's ridiculous. Your conclusion is wrong.

You're the one claiming there's a shortage. I showed that view is not in very good alignment with some pretty basic facts about the numbers of ATP airmen around. If you think 70,000 active of those ATP's are not interested in the airlines, then where's the facts to support that claim? At best there seems to be something amiss in the business of claiming there's a pilot shortage if it cannot account for these basic facts. How do you know they are not interested, and if not, then how do you know they would not apply tomorrow if the salaries were competitive with other fields?

If half our profession was unemployed, it would support your statistics. The historical unemployment rate of pilots is 2%. My point is, the study was poorly and hastily done. Your point is "see! No shortage! These vague and poorly defined numbers prove it! "

My study is poorly done? I have no study, I just pointed out two basic facts about how many people are eligible for these jobs and how many of these jobs there are in America. Please do not plant words in my mouth, I said nothing about proof. The reader can think what they want about these two facts I stated, but they are still facts that must be dealt with when making the pilot shortage argument. If you want to shoot down the number of FAA active ATPs then be my guest, but use hard data.

#agreeToDisagree. The ATP spike with new FARs is a great point in that debate. Factual data aside, using the current hiring demands, regionals feeding off of other regionals, there's no question that there is absolutely a pilot shortage.