I'm not staying here for the flow, I'm staying here until
I can go wherever I want to go. Im even trying to go off the street at AA. I'm Sorry if I'm too optimistic for you.

You're an where a 2011 hire, I'm a 2010 hire. Maybe more than 100 people between us, that's about 1 year difference in upgrade and 6months difference in flow.

Also remember you don't have to be a Ca to flow to AA as a protected pilot.

An interesting suggestion. Perhaps you can convince the administrator of the website to modify it so a member can only access either the major or regional forums, but not both ?

That would as you say keep people like me off the "kids" regional partition and the kids off the major airline partition. But, that's not likely as these forums are intended to allow multiple points of view on various subjects, but I do realize that this makes it more difficult for some to further an agenda (usually involving personal gain) using biased claims.

Whatever dude,

I dont go to AA Side and start talking how they are and will be replacing 737 and a319 flying with Cr900 and E175s and stuff like that.

I don't go posting my opinions in part of the industry I'm not and will not be considered part of. So...whatever man...


I don't have an agenda like you think Iam. I'm just a regular line pilot that would like his place to be better like it was one time. Sorry if you don't like my opinion and if you think is "balloni". I got done with you...

I though RJ was a troll but you guys go hand by hand. :)

Happy New Years and learn how to move on with yor life.

There are multiple factors that could derail the latest flow carrot from Envoy. Like it or not, Envoy is among the most risky of regionals right now because of its vulnerability. The latest round of concessions has made Envoy nothing but a house if cards entirely dependent upon a steady stream of new-hire pilots to replace those leaving for other carriers and at present some to AA. Even with that, Envoy will steadily shrink and the upgrade potential is weak. Many there who are more junior know this and how tenuous their situation is and thus unless Envoy gets that steady stream of pilots, their flow-thru plans are in serious jeopardy. Thus many are here to sell. In all likelihood, Envoy will fall far short in its recruiting efforts and thus the house of cards will fall. Combine that with AA implementing PBS and merging International and domestic divisions and significantly less pilots are needed which will likely slow or stop the flow. It has nothing to do with "9/11" claims, but is simply one of the "synergies" Parker has talked about repeatedly since he took over.

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best if things, but it should never get in the way if practical reality. For many at Envoy, it seems it has. Hopefully, those not there can better see the fields of cotton candy there because they aren't intoxicated by all the sugar fumes.

Chill out bro and understand dat all kinds of homies be checkin out another dudes crib. :rolleyes:

This thread is about flow-thrus and especially about Envoys. As a past product of both, I think I have just as relevant and credible right to comment on it as you or anyone else. Obviously you find this upsetting and perhaps it's you that needs to as you put it "move on" ?

You just said It....

Past product...you're not a present product. ;)

Past, old, obsolete...

Those who don't learn history are bound to repeat it. Young, arrogant, clueless...

.....or in the spirit of Animal House;

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

The flow could of course get derailed but if that happens no one is going to be getting street hire slots either.
The big difference between now and 1999 is the age of mainline pilots.
If a new pilot is at all interested in AA I think it's the place to go.
At 360 per year a person will move up 1000 numbers in 3 years. You would be in upgrade territory looking at a job at any major with the ticket to AA in your back pocket. Also plenty of people lately getting straight in street hire from envoy to AA with no special connections or PIC. They are simply making the effort while many don't.

Yet, Envoy is slated to shrink to a little over 100 aircraft within a few years. I admire your optimism, but I think it's too optimistic.

No one knows how many aircraft Envoy will have in a few years but if it does shrink that much it would mean massive amounts of people left for green pastures which would be fewer people in your way for the flow through.

Shh...eaglefly knows all the answers about envoy. He knows how to read the future.

I say, how about we give a management a break? Parker publicly said that envoy is shrinkkng because of the economics of the other WO are better and if we wanted to succeed we had to be like them. It's being just 6 days since we have those economics, nothing is going to change overnight.

The mind of the yes voter.

Yes, give them a break. They have a long history of contract compliance and kept promises, correct?

Last I heard, your MEC officers told the pilots they could expect Envoy to shrink to something like 110 aircraft or so. But hey, if pilots want to listen to some 4th year regional F/O who might be able to get a cub around the patch without crashing it as the yoda of Envoys flow and future, that's fine. Personally, it would be better for me if as many pilots come to Envoy as possible. AA needs feed to thrive and once we become overstaffed for awhile due to PBS and division consolidation and hiring stops (along with the flow), we'll have that many more long-term Envoy pilots to support our carrier. We NEED a stable group of pilots at Envoy. Now, it won't be as good for those that DID go to Envoy expecting unicorns, rainbows, blue skies and tailwinds and even a pony or two like your management and their chum J3 would have you believe, but it would be more pilots at Envoy and that's good for AA.

Envoy has a long and cherished history of suckering pilots to cockpits with flow promises and so why shouldn't the next generation take their place in continuing a new chapter in that classic fable, just as thousands before them did ?

Obviously you're looking at factual history as opposed to future fantasy. Yes, some will flow, but many factors make virtually certain that it will be a MUCH slower process then the snake oil salesman here are trying to claim standing at the back of their cars with the trunks open. Should someone poison their selling environment, they're labeled "trolls". The flow REQUIRES a steady new-hire supply and if that doesn't occur (and almost certainly won't), boxes of "ottopilots" will not materialize for inflation to support that.

Didn't Pedro claim that Envoy would go so far as to park aircraft to maintain the flow to get Envoy pilots to agree to bankruptcy concessions (the previous round of concession giving by Envoy pilots) ?

Not going to happen.

Yeah, so much look to the History APA look to get Parker?

HoneyMoon Will be over soon between AA pilots and Parker. GMAFB dude...this is everyone by its own...you couldnt get hired any where so that's why you flew and are so disgruntled with the industry. You hate envoy because you got stuck here so much time...well sorry but you probably will retire in less than 15years. I expect you to give away scope if they give you raises.

You probably voted yes in the 16yr deal and then it sucked for you. Stop bashing envoy because your generation is the one that screw us over.

MEC officers don't know the plan .. management doesn't even know the plan beyond a couple of years. It's always been that way.
I've been told so many "plans" over the years that never came true I can' t even remember them all. The only person I believe is myself.
People have poked fun at me about the flow through for 16 years.
Low an behold I will flow soon. The flow is real.. It is not a unicorn. If I was at a non flow airline I would be out there in a sea of thousands trying to get hired.
Yes it took me a lot longer than anyone thought but as has been said there were so many set backs from the lost decade. SARS, $150 a barrel oil, bank crisis , 911 and most importantly age 65. That set everyone back 5 years. Moving forward there will be more issues. Age 67 could come and who knows what else but these old guys can't fly forever. The next decade will be one of the best since the 1960s.
I think there is a decent chance wholly owns could be merged. If staffing gets tight enough they could be forced to make it all one airline. 100% flow from regional to majors. At that point non wholly owns would be locked out.
Having said that it will not be an overnight flow and a person starting today should certainly consider trying to get in at the beginning of the hiring boom. As long as you are a squared away pilot I would go for a fast upgrade. If you have some connections and/ or something a little extra on your resume it will certainly help. If you're a lower end C student from Bumfukle community college/and or bad interviewer you may want a little extra insurance going with a flow through.
A person needs to consider all angles. And one angle is:
Ok , I go to airline X with a 1-2 year upgrade. PSA has about doubled.. will that upgrade time be the same when I actually get to upgrade? Upgrade times are very unpredictable and the airline with the fastest upgrade may not be the one with the fastest in 3-4 years.
So it may take 3-4 years to upgrade at Envoy. In a perfect world where you upgrade somewhere else, and get hired at a major in 3-4 years you will have lost out if the PIC got you the job. On the other hand...
You may upgrade somewhere else faster and simply not get hired at a major as fast as you thought.
I don't think there is one right or wrong scenario here. Both are gambles but one has a bit of insurance built in.

That wasn't just a "claim".. It was to be in writing.

Clearly, you're out of touch. The "honeymoon" between AA pilots and Parker is ALREADY over, "dude". As for the rest of your drivel, that card has been played on me before and by much better players then you. I always know when someone else has no valid arguments left, as they always play the "you couldn't get hired anywhere else card" on me. It used to be the "Eagle lifer-loser" card, but that's no longer applicable. That tack is a demonstration of pathetic weakness, not unlike YOU voting for successive rounds of concessions from a corporation raking in Billions this year and into the future.

As for scope, well kid, on that you're out of luck this go-around. It's not in consideration. Considering the fact that the regional segment of the industry is hopelessly doomed to shrink by at least half in the next 5 years, Parker has all the scope he can use, but hey, if scope should be relaxed in the future, YOU will be the loser there as it only extends your tenure in an RJ.

I can live with that. ;)

But, getting back to the subject of pathetic weakness......

....someone who voted not once, but TWICE for successive concessions from a company raking in billions upon billions is in NO position to criticize others for voting in contracts in the past that were and shockingly still ARE heads and tails FAR better then the garbage you eagerly are willing to work under even when factored in for inflation. The 16 year contract at Eagle turned out to be one of the better deals and provided me with annual pay of $125K/year and much better schedule flexibility then the used toilet paper that's now your agreement.

Some of you kids crack me up.....it's always someone ELSE'S fault you're now in the toilet with a future that's more likely to result in a flushing as opposed to application of bowl freshener. Yes, blame the old Eagle pilots, blame PSA, blame RAH , blame Pinnacle, etc. It's never your fault. What a joke. Clearly as well, you are aware of supposed past mistakes, yet you repeat them which is my whole entire point !

Thanks for the yuk ! This for me has been the most laughable post I've seen on this forum in years. You've truly made my day ! :)

You make the same points I do.

- The flow has (and will) take much longer then anticipated for most, ESPECAILLY any suckers that show up to the back of the Envoy conga line expecting not to step in everyone else's **** in front of them.

- The MEC and management have no ideas about the success or failure of "plans" and therefore can make no guarantees about meeting future promises.

- Most, if not virtually all past promises made never came true.

Yet, given all that to which you just admitted, you for some reason think THIS time it will be different ?

Siwwy piwots...........why can't they ever think straight ? :cool:

It "was" to be in writing ?

Ahh, could you post that here to prove it ?

Specifically, the contractual agreement that should staffing become critically low, that management will reduce the number of operational aircraft to ensure the AA flow-thru continues at the contractually required minimal rate regardless of the consequences to the Envoy or AA operations. Besides, even if it did exist, any number of options are available to circumnavigate that. In the past, the CBA stated the company would "aggressively seek new flying opportunities......", but that was a joke and has since outsourced to other carriers consistently. Letter 3 was a landmark example of management B.S. and how about scope transfer rights to your own aircraft ?

*POOF*

Gone like a fart in the wind.

Please. Anyone banking a single promise from this management is truly living on hope and prayers.

Uh..yes this next decade will be very different. The majority of AA pilots will retire in the next 10 years. Nuff said.

I can't copy paste it as it's in a powerpoint sheet on ALPA.org.
If you have access it is still there from March 2014.

Good I made you laugh pops. ;)

Keep dreaming man...the flow was good for you but not for everybody else. Hey, I voted yes now...I voted no in bk and in March.

It's time to think for ourselves, you hate so much eagle that I believe you would be happy if they close the airline. AA is becoming the biggest LLC of the world...it's not the same place it used to be and it never will.

Like I said before, the flow should be the plan Z for anyone, the plan A should be get hire anywhere before flow. But hey that's ok... Don't come to envoy people, go to PSA, MESA, RAH, Compass, any place that will take you away from Envoy. :)

I don't think it's the "majority". Many thousands, yes. Half those slots come from the street. Other carriers will have heavy retirements and will also have no alternative to match any flow a competitor like AA has to maintain a feed network, so leaving there to go to AA is VERY likely to be a knee-jerk mistake at this point as they'd make it faster with another "ace in the hole" in their back-pocket and their present seniority at whatever regional they are at.

BTW......you're flowing to AA soon ? Well, welcome aboard. Of course, you do realize that according to J3, you're now also a loser who obviously "couldn't get hired anywhere else" too, yes ?

In fact, if J3 flows to AA then he too joins the loser club he's classified me into and soon you. Talk about a guy who has no idea of the things he talks about, yet his industry crystal ball is so shiny !

Kinda like the E-175 he sold his soul for, eh ? :rolleyes:

Seems I saw a stat that 7000 of 9000 AA pilots retire by 2025.

They would have parked airplanes for us to flow.

Absolutely.

They would have parked them at the front door of other operators. With the keys in the ignition.

Thanks son.....and I'm a nice guy to pull gear for too. ;)

You voted like that ?

Sure you did. :cool:

I don't hate Eagle, I'm just trying to paint a more realistic future based on the FACTS of the past and not fantasies of some of the present greenhorns.

Time to think for yourself, eh ?

Interesting. Suppose you flow over in 3-4-5 years (I'm not sure of the exact date in your fantasy) and as a very junior AA pilot in the typical bottom 15% nail-biting "furlough fodder" zone something unforeseen occurs and you are either subject to furlough or caught in a stagnation cycle and the majority senior also still being "pops" like me vote on things that won't prevent your furlough, like concessions ?

Hint : AA pilots have always eaten their young and the older they get, the less likely they will be to sacrifice their paychecks and pocket books to keep you employed.

As a pilot who clearly possesses a magna cum laude concessionist attitude like you, you'll not blame those more senior at AA (AKA the majority) for then also "thinking for themselves", will you ?

Of course you will. Why ?

Because you flip your logic like the wind when it suits your interests, have no interest in the past or mistakes made and well,.......like most of the present generation who demand instant gratification, "it's all about me".

Good luck kid. But you sound exactly like the rest of us when we were young, self-absorbed and full of pi$$ and vinegar and history has sooner or later always repeated itself in this profession and guess what ?

Just about the time you DO flow (whenever that is), if the cyclical nature of this profession hasn't proved itself once again, it is destined to do so soon.

Yes, ANY "flow thru" should be your back-up, because like it or not, there won't be enough mainline pilots slots for every hopeful that want them, even with the retirement schedule at least for 15 years. The point I'm trying to make is that any present regional pilots shouldn't flush there present seniority at regional X to come to Envoy for its flow-thru. That's the riskiest move they could make right now. At the very least, they should wait 12 months or so to see how things shake out and I think if they do, they'll breathe a sigh of relief they didn't allow themselves to be suckered into a knee-jerk reaction.

I find it humorous though that you babble about me supposedly "hating" Eagle, when clearly you hate the other regionals that you feel are responsible for your present situation. I can see why then it would be desirable to try and shaft them by strangling their recruiting. Clearly, there is a reason for your bias in favor of Envoy and its to inflict damage upon those you feel have done you wrong. My position on the other hand isn't based on an agenda or emotion, but simple practical reality based on the past and even more importantly the PRESENT conduct of your management who arguably has been the worst of the lot when it comes to fair treatment and honoring promises.

Hey, Parker's lied to us too and if he's willing to do that to us at AA, I can only imagine what his plans are for Envoy and putting the success of a shrinking regionals flow-thru, I assure you is NOT among his priorities.

But, if you must go ostrich, that's up to you. :cool:

Actually, we have about 15,000 pilots now. Hey, if a pilot jumps to Envoy now or goes there from scratch, they just might be at AA in 10 years. Not enough reason to jump or even target Envoy AFAIC. Delta and UAL will have to match AA's flow promises soon and they will.

How ?

They cant even staff the fresh new ones coming from the factory without raiding their other operations ?

They're robbing peter to pay paul and that's on a fairly small scale now. The best threats they could make to you were nickel-an-dime transfers of aircraft elsewhere, like 15 or 20 to regional X. In fact, I'm told now that the transfer of the 47 CRJ's will have to be delayed because the regional slated for them can't staff them at the rate AAG would like to transfer them.

Note : The transfer of the CRJ's was a future fleet commonality situation and would have occurred regardless of the contractual situation at Envoy, but still they cannot transfer them as desired.

Yeah, I think that stat was from the active AA side. Even more on the US side percentage wise.

Again, expect a delay due to hiring stopping or slowing dramatically due to PBS/INT-DOM. PHX will likely close and/or possibly be consolidated into LAX as a satellite. No growth is anticipated through 2018 and all aircraft deliveries are for retirements only. The options are as yet unexercised.

There are multiple aspects already factored in that are virtually certain to negatively impact the Envoy flow from the Pollyanna projections that some at Envoy are desperately clinging to. Should the unforeseen more serious situations occur, such as an economic collapse in the U.S. or abroad affecting the U.S., war breaking out in the middle east once again spiking oil prices back up to the $120-150/barrel range (putin is scheming to make this happen as we speak and the Saudis are attempting to right now) or terrorism rears its ugly head here again (long overdue actually), well........then things get really unpleasant for the lollipop lickers.

Ahh....if life and this industry was only the Katy Perry video with candy canes and California Gurls that many plan it to be would things be grand. :rolleyes:

Ostrich holes are sure quiet on the ears though, eh ?

Please recognize flow as the MANAGEMENT marketing tool that it is. Flow gives management the power to get you into the right seat of THEIR RJ (they are competing desperately for qualified pilots), and keep you there as long as they can. THAT is their goal, to keep pilots flying in the cheap seats, for as long as possible. They know this regional game is coming to an end so they are throwing the flow carrots out there in a desperate attempt to recruit.

Please realize that for the most part, flow will only slow your career down. Management will decide the order and the speed of you flowing to the mainline. In most cases, that will take years.

Don’t give management control over your career. They will keep you in the cheap seats as long as they can. In the near future, you will be able to prep for the interview and get to a major on your own much more quickly than any flow is going to get you there. Do not give anything up for flow. It will no longer be needed.

If the regional of your choice happens to offer a flow, that’s great. It’s a good back-up plan if all else fails. But don’t let that be a deciding factor.

Some will say – But the majors have 10,000 applications on file. Yep. That’s true. But most of those 10,000 applications are on file at American, Delta, United, Southwest, FedEx, UPS . . . The SAME 10,000 apps are in everywhere. Once the flood gates open, it won’t take long for them to get through those applications. Just my opinion. But, hey, what do I know.

All true. Seniority is the name of the game. It's clear that many of those "10,000 apps" will get passed over or their owners will be unsuccessful in their interview processes for any number of reasons, many of which aren't their fault. It may take multiple attempts at carrier X or faliure at X before success at carrier Y. That being the case, do you want to place your bets on flow X working or getting your most important competitive bird in the hand, that being PIC time ?

Envoy is slated to shrink and that's a fact. Perhaps by as much as half. That does NOT support getting that bird in the hand. Envoy is essentially a poisoned well at this point, it's just management hopes they can pour enough sugar in to make those thirsty think it's not only safe to drink, but desirable.......even tasty. Sadly, many already foundering around in that barrel know they need more to join them to maximize their own escape options. It's kind of like a "misery loves company" scenario, but in this case they need company. Should Envoy managements hopes not materialize which is the more likely of the two scenarios, MAJOR moves with Envoy are likely and that will likely slow advancement there Ben further as that's when a merger (or possible divestiture) hits the front burner.

In the event Envoy is merged with another regional, that will only lengthen the flow prospects for all concerned, especially those who came in at the back end (even worse, jumping from one to the other and ending up more junior then you were). The fact is, AAG has committed to over a hundred new E-175's and somebody has to fly them. If the well is drying up, why would they only exacerbate that by increasing uncompensated attrition ?

They'd only be assisting in the strangling of their own feed network.

Its confirmed.

Frosty tips aka highlights on hair, and this kind of music? The FAs were right after all.... Not that there is anything wrong with that....;)

Good Luck.

A flow is nice to have in your back pocket; but nobody should actually need it unless they are soley focused on AA.

Even if AA does slow down, it's temporary.

"Frosty tips" ?

Hey, I kinda like that. It's got panache. :)

Since were handing out names, I'm going to christen you Pinocchio celebrating your long nose of fabrication. The only question is how long can that nose go ?

Your Embraer also has a long, pointy nose too, but it's more honest. ;)

Happy New Year Pinocchio !

"Temporary" is a subjective term. The flow has a better then even chance of actually stopping for awhile. I realize in your position, optimism is attractive.

In the interest of providing factual information, it was 15 yrs ago when I heard that. More than a year to go (best case) before it finally happens. :eek:

Just overheard two PSA FOs (both still very junior from what I gathered from the conversation) talking about how they can't wait to flow to AA soon......correct me if I'm wrong, but PSA does not have flow at this moment?!? Think it's pretty bad these clowns don't even know what's in their contract that they voted in. Also to think that even if they did have flow that they as Jr FOs would be flowing anytime soon. Sad sad sad.