is there every going to be a shortage? or is that just some myth that always resurfaces?

It is no myth, but in fact, current reality. And things be gettin mo' real every day. My major airline is sucking up regional pilots by the boatload. Military too. Our average new hire flt hrs over the last year? 8500hrs+. I suspect we hire 1000 pilots this year (again) and possibly push to 1200. The other majors are hiring big numbers too.

Somebody is going to feel a big pinch when it comes to regional pilot manning. Today's challenges are just a dress rehearsal.

Plenty of ATP qualified pilots around. No shortage. But there's a shortage of pilots willing to work for these wages. At some airlines. Pool is drying up. Regionals are now taking just about anyone with an ATP or mins to qualify for one. The noise is being made because the regionals can't pick and choose who they get anymore. Still plenty of aviation school grads for the next couple years, and mil guys, but I don't think we will be in a situation where we don't have enough qualified Americans who have ATPs and could get Medicals if pay was commensurate with experience (enough to become an airline pilot should be enough to justify livable wages).

Certain regionals are shrinking while others are growing. For instance, Envoy is shrinking and unable to attract anyone as a result. Does that mean their is a pilot shortage? No, just means that people are going to places like PSA, Mesa and TransStates. Are any of those having problems staffing? No?

No pilot shortage.

cancelled flights are usually staffing related these days. there's only one play the company has left before it gets ugly. The regionals that survive are going to pillage the bottom of the other's list. RAH is losing this battle right now. Only way to fix it is a solid contract that speeds up upgrade.

though upgrade time is about to drop from 7 years to 4 years pretty much over night. Almost through the 2008 hires now. No one was hired until 2010 and just a handful remain.

Agreed, one man's pleasure is another man's nightmare!

A Couple quick thoughts/points:

1) RAH has stalled contract negotiations for OVER 8 YEARS,..... and counting. If RAH REALLY wanted to stem pilot attrition and attract new hires, they'd get serious about reaching a new collective bargaining agreement. Clearly, they're not serious about it so we can reasonably assume that they don't WANT to fix it. Why??? See 2)

2) I believe Rev. Bedford's angle is to literally create a pilot shortage, cause cancellations, and reduce or eliminate airline service to smaller communities so that pressure will mount on congress to do away with the new 121 pilot hiring minimums, (including 117 rest/duty rules). From there, the good Rev. will once again be able to hire CHEAP, starry-eyed, newly minted, 250 hour, wonder pilots with fresh commercial pilot licenses. And

3) IF that strategy doesn't work, I believe RAH will simply evolve into an aircraft leasing company, (much like GE Capital, et al), and will simply take delivery of their firm-ordered CS Series 100 seat jets, (and perhaps other airframes) which they will then lease to Delta, United, AAG, or other (foreign) airlines. Eliminate the pilots, mechanics, operations, administration payroll (and their unions),....... and just sit back and watch the monthly lease payments roll in. The lord giveth,.... huh Reverend?

I believe that's what SkyWest and TSA plan on doing with their larger aircraft orders. Not necessarily shrinking their pilot group, but definitely leasing them out.

The lord give it and the lord takes it away, amen!

[QUOTE=Slick111;1862348]A Couple quick thoughts/points:

1) RAH has stalled contract negotiations for OVER 8 YEARS,..... and counting. If RAH REALLY wanted to stem pilot attrition and attract new hires, they'd get serious about reaching a new collective bargaining agreement. Clearly, they're not serious about it so we can reasonably assume that they don't WANT to fix it.


The company flat out told the negotiating committee that they want to have a TA for the pilot group to vote on by April 30th. They went from meeting every other week with the NC to meeting every day of the work week and TA'd four articles in the last week alone. Something has lit a fire under them, whether it be the unexpected extension of our delta 145 flying or something else entirely remains to be seen. Big things are happening behind the scenes at RAH right now.