can anyone else weigh in on this? As much as I would like this to be true, I am not sure I believe it based on everything else I have heard.

Hope this turns out to be true, a lot of good guys over at Endeavor who have been through a lot.


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Horizon is about 3.5 years for the Q, but you don't want to come here right as were about to take concessions. If we get jets the upgrade for those will be 15 years.

Most junior CA at Horizon was hired in Dec 2011 and upgraded in July. There haven't been many upgrades since then and those that have were senior FO's holding out for bases/better schedules (the junior guys are probably waiting until after the holidays). We were recently informed that there are "many" upgrades coming up starting in January. Not many hired in 2011-2012 so wouldn't be surprised if the junior CA is a 2013 hire by late spring/early summer.

This is 100% accurate.

I have been watching a friend's progress. He started at Skywest in late Oct. He now has about 240 guys below him. There are 1350 between him and the most junior captain.

Looking at the 200 pilots more senior than the junior capt it looks like 15% are still FOs. This number will probably increase as most of the 1350 do not have much time and will wait.

Skywest has 40 planes coming soon, that is at least 200 captain slots with 5 crews per plane.

In 2 months he has moved up 100 numbers.

1350 minus the 200 new captain slots leaves 1150. Take away 15% leaves about 985 pilots. Divide that by the 50 they are losing each month is 19 months. I expect the number leaving to move to 60 a month and I expect the 15% passover rate to climb to 25%. That would make it about 14 months.

This guy has lots of time and experience and lives in the junior base so he will upgrade as soon as he is able. Most would put the number between the 14 and 19 months but Skywest is being aggressive and I know that United, Delta, and Alaska are trying to get them to do lots more flying. Therefore, I expect him to be able to upgrade in less than 14 months.

Gojet is talking 12 to 18 months but United is not going to renew their contracts for flying the CRJ-700s. (United does not want the 700s as you can see they just cancelled the contract for some Skywest 700s for 2016) I am not sure when those are up but I believe one contract for 15 planes is up in 2017 and the other in 2018 or 2020. Can someone add in the correct dates?

So what is the most junior Captain right now? Is it different for each pre merger airline?

Who is the most jr ca holding a line? This is a better question, and the answer is most likely a 2013 mesa hire.

I think today's applicants should be asking "how long will i sit reserve" not "how long until upgrade". Since Your average new hire needs to hit that 1000hr mark before upgrade, Flying 300 hours a year on reserve will get you there longer than expected.

CommutAir is at around an 18 month upgrade. Could be less if you pick up flying on your days off.