Flows benefit both the legacy and their regional WOs in different ways. In the end it's about money, and flow programs save millions. It is ultimately beneficial for AAG to keep their regionals healthy. For that reason, I actually think we'll see the opposite happening. You'll see non-WOs cannibalized and the WOs will grow as long as they can continue to hire pilots... Which they likely will because they have the financial backing of their legacy partners.

"IF" American dumps the non WO carriers (which they said that they are going to start doing soon), and "IF" the only way to get hired by AA is through the flow, then the flow will work and the WO regionals will still be around in a few years.

If the WO regionals have 5000 pilots, and it is a set 5-6 year flow to mainline guaranteed, then it will work. The WO will in essence just be a B-scale for American.

It seems that United and Delta are taking flying back, and AA is trying to shrink the number of contract carriers while growing their WO. Watch for it to continue.

For mine it was a tossup between the USAF and US Army. You could spot them from across the room because they were the only ones that wouldn't visually shiver when you said the word "reserve"

Expect to see the contract regionals getting the carpet pulled out from under them in order to keep the a pool of applicants to the WOs.

If AA was in a position to have its WOs pick up the slack from a failing RAH it would have done so, and right now we see AWAC bleeding without any majors picking it up as a contract carrier, and to add insult to injury, AA WOs start opening bases where AWAC is and offering extra $ to their signing bonuses for prior 121 and CRJ experience.

Likely, It's only a matter of time before most of the regionals die off... the WOs will be the ones standing.

This brings up another important question that may not have been discussed so far. Is there a probationary period after you flow to mainline. If there is they will just use that to purge all of the undesirables that they don't want.

There is a probation period when you flow to AA.

A flow program in and of itself is not likely to bring in pilots. It is a piece of a pie and the rest of the pieces need to be there as well. Pay just by itself may also not be enough for some people. The regionals that can put together an appealing "package" will continue to bring in pilots. There's lots of people out there that have the hours and ratings working other jobs because they can't afford to be a pilot. Once that becomes a possibility, their love of aviation will bring them in if they can live on the pay. That stream can fill the gap until more people can get through training.

The stats on how many flows have been "purged" inside their probationary period is very telling. I've been told less <1%. Maybe someone with actual head counts can verify that.

Flow starts(ed) as a marketing thing by the HR departments as a reaction go recruiting troubles, primarily at the regionals (WO or not).

Interesting to see how it integrates into 'mercy-killing' of regionals (listen up, AWAC!), as a part of diminishing regional flying and transferring (some of) it back to mainline.

Interesting times!

You would think but they have kept more than a few of the known problem pilots around at AA.