Will the majors cannibalize their WOs?
 

Looking forward here, there is a lot of temptation to choose a regional based on a flow through agreement...


My question is whether or not the majors will actually cannibalize their wholly owned? In other words, wouldn't they prefer to take pilots from other airlines' regionals instead of their own? Flow throughs it would seem to me would be hurting their own regionals.


So in that regard, perhaps it is better to choose to work for a regional that doesn't have a flow-through program, or choose a regional that is wholly owned by a major you are not interested in working for? If the majors drain their own regional could they be shooting themselves in the foot?

Thoughts? :confused:

No. One of the key benefits of a WO to a major is their ability to control capacity and staffing without long-term contracts.

They'll want to keep the WO pilots chained to the oars while the non-WO regionals get emptied out by hiring. Of course that only works for so long, because the WO pilots can (and will) eventually bail for other majors once they realize the deal.

In a pinch (which will probably come to pass eventually), they'll most likely all do a metered WO flow through to try to control the bleed out.

Reason being, their non-WO's are likely to be emptied out by other airlines at a rate that they cannot control. At least with the WO's they can control the damage to some degree. If they offer retention of longevity for example, that could incentivize people to stick around and wait for flow rather than bail for another legacy.

The "real" point of a flow for managment is to "meter" pilots from leaving... they will do what they need to protect there feed, and keep the bait alive..

What carrier is most represented at Delta new hire ground?
What carriers have alotted slots at American?

These carriers are growing and the highest paid.

The question is what happens when they don't have enough incoming new hires to replace those leaving via flow. IMO there are 3 options:
1. Flow the WO regional out of existence.
2. Meter the flow down to a trickle.
3. Offer even more money to try for more new hires.
The old AMR got tons of mileage out of this type of thing going back to the 90's.

More PSA pilots have been hired by Delta in the last 2 months than have flowed to AA.

The majors may cannibalize their competitors WO's. That would be a great strategy. If Delta hired a dozen sim instructors and a couple dozen LCA from a given regional, it could seriously hurt their competitor.

Kind of defeats the purpose or marketing that "never interview again" pitch...oh well, to each their own!

The flow is going to be for those that are not able to get hired outside of it.

If you do not want to put forth the effort of applying elsewhere, then the flow will help. Likewise if you have a bad record with multiple checkride failures or a criminal history.

If you have a good record, there is really no reason to wait for the flow unless you really want to work for the parent company.

What are you saying? It doesn't make much sense.

Are you saying that you wouldn't bother interviewing elsewhere?

Just because you don't have to interview elsewhere doesn't mean that you can't. If it gets you to a legacy carrier a few years faster, wouldn't you go to an interview?

Nailed it. Flows are for managements benefit. Not pilots. You may get lucky, you may wait 13 years to go from Eagle to AA like a colleague I knew...

Flows benefit both the legacy and their regional WOs in different ways. In the end it's about money, and flow programs save millions. It is ultimately beneficial for AAG to keep their regionals healthy. For that reason, I actually think we'll see the opposite happening. You'll see non-WOs cannibalized and the WOs will grow as long as they can continue to hire pilots... Which they likely will because they have the financial backing of their legacy partners.

"IF" American dumps the non WO carriers (which they said that they are going to start doing soon), and "IF" the only way to get hired by AA is through the flow, then the flow will work and the WO regionals will still be around in a few years.

If the WO regionals have 5000 pilots, and it is a set 5-6 year flow to mainline guaranteed, then it will work. The WO will in essence just be a B-scale for American.

It seems that United and Delta are taking flying back, and AA is trying to shrink the number of contract carriers while growing their WO. Watch for it to continue.

For mine it was a tossup between the USAF and US Army. You could spot them from across the room because they were the only ones that wouldn't visually shiver when you said the word "reserve"

Expect to see the contract regionals getting the carpet pulled out from under them in order to keep the a pool of applicants to the WOs.

If AA was in a position to have its WOs pick up the slack from a failing RAH it would have done so, and right now we see AWAC bleeding without any majors picking it up as a contract carrier, and to add insult to injury, AA WOs start opening bases where AWAC is and offering extra $ to their signing bonuses for prior 121 and CRJ experience.

Likely, It's only a matter of time before most of the regionals die off... the WOs will be the ones standing.

This brings up another important question that may not have been discussed so far. Is there a probationary period after you flow to mainline. If there is they will just use that to purge all of the undesirables that they don't want.

There is a probation period when you flow to AA.

A flow program in and of itself is not likely to bring in pilots. It is a piece of a pie and the rest of the pieces need to be there as well. Pay just by itself may also not be enough for some people. The regionals that can put together an appealing "package" will continue to bring in pilots. There's lots of people out there that have the hours and ratings working other jobs because they can't afford to be a pilot. Once that becomes a possibility, their love of aviation will bring them in if they can live on the pay. That stream can fill the gap until more people can get through training.

The stats on how many flows have been "purged" inside their probationary period is very telling. I've been told less <1%. Maybe someone with actual head counts can verify that.

Flow starts(ed) as a marketing thing by the HR departments as a reaction go recruiting troubles, primarily at the regionals (WO or not).

Interesting to see how it integrates into 'mercy-killing' of regionals (listen up, AWAC!), as a part of diminishing regional flying and transferring (some of) it back to mainline.

Interesting times!

You would think but they have kept more than a few of the known problem pilots around at AA.

A funny observation is how the "people" that say or decided in that the flow does not work & went to wrk for a non WO. are the ones flying for non-working carriers (or non-flowing carriers).

FYI... the flow works. Envoy/Eagle for example, has "flowed" approx 950 pilot %60 of AA's new hire class since 2006.

Yeaaaaaaaah... the flow does not work *sarcasm*

Eat your heart out. Tell yourself whatever lie you want to pleasure yourselves.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

You AA WO boys love it.

To say PSA has a flow is a little misleading. It would more aptly be described as a trickle.

First Officer Bucket should be about a year from upgrade now, right?

OK. I'll bite and sink to your level.

Our current pilots flowing have been on property 9 years (2007 hires). How long have your current flows been at Eagle/Envoy?

(Waiting for you to tell me how many more you flow a month - which is true, but no one knows how long any of that will continue. As of right now, our pilots have spent less time at a WO. It may change in the future, but as of now, we are doing fairly well.)

We are currently sending more pilots to other airlines than we are to AA. Heck, we are sending more to Delta than we are to AA. We are filling classes. We are upgrading in about 26 months, and reserve time is low. Our schedules are pretty good, and with the SAP, we can make great schedules. No line holder has to ever work a holiday.

Blah Blah Blah. It has all been posted here hundreds of times.

Does a new hire today get hired in 2007 or 2016? In other words, new hires should look at what the flow through projection is for someone hired today, not years ago during the worst decade in the industry.
The pilots coming to Envoy are smart enough to understand that concept. Are you?
As far as Envoy's flow through numbers, it's 30 EVERY MONTH, and we do know exactly how long that lasts.
Envoy's flow through projection of 5.5 years is based only on the minimum meterable flow per month. They use 0 pilots per month for attrition to other airlines, unlike PSA who uses 20-25 per month, or about 2% of their pilot group every month. That would be like Envoy saying, ya we have 30 a month flowing but we have 37 more a month going to other airlines. Using the same attrition percentage to other airlines that PSA uses would drop Envoy's flow through projection to 28 months.
PSA pilots are not more desirable to legacy carriers. Using other airline attrition is dishonest at best and that is why Envoy doesn't use it.

It hasn't worked well for you thus far, but you are hoping that it will work better in the future. I understand. I've heard it 1000 times. This argument is accomplishing nothing. I am very happy for you guys. You have been screwed over time and time again by AA and now AAG. I honestly hope that your new hires flow to AA in 28 months. I see that FO Bucket is still hanging in there.

With that said, no one knows what is going to happen in the future. I can tell you what has happened thus far.

We have lots of pilots that came here fresh out of instructing 3 years ago, upgraded as soon as they had 1000 hours, and are now getting picked up by major carriers.

In the three years they spent here, they spent 2-3 months on reserve TOTAL in 3 years (as CA and FO). They have 1000 TPIC, and have been able to set their own schedules with the SAP. It has been a pretty good 3 years.

Envoy is flowing 30 a month right now. Thats great. But, I would not give up what has and is continuing to happen here for your flow to the lowest paid legacy carrier. Your pilots have spent 3 years on reserve as a FO and if they ever do get a line, it will have one of your terrible schedules.

I much prefer what is happening here.

You continue to compare Envoy's past to PSA's past. It's not 2012 anymore. And you fail to repond to the disingenuous attrition numbers PSA uses.

Every calculation that I have seen for Envoy's flow numbers have been the maximum number of flows, and never decreasing...yet they do decrease.

What will the flow be after the 824 leave? 35% of new hire classes if the 40th 175 is not delivered, if I am not mistaken - and even then it drops to 25 a month.

Then it drops to 15 a month for the next group. Then it drops even more.

Envoy's flow numbers are high now and decreasing. How low? No one knows.

PSA's are low now, and increasing. How high? No one knows.

Envoy is shrinking. You are losing airplanes faster than you are gaining them, and you are top heavy and expensive. That is why upgrades have been stagnant, as have people being stuck on reserve for years. It is in AAG's best interest to get rid of your high paying 12+ year captains.

PSA is growing. We are gaining airplanes and reserve time is low, as is upgrade time. Our current upgrades are 26 months, and they are immediately line holders.

Who knows what is going to happen in the future.

L.O.L.

Anyone that falls for this koolaid party of smoke and mirrors deserves what they get at PSA. :rolleyes:

I think he was cracking a joke...

Is that all you have to say in reply? Accuse him of "smoke and mirrors"?

100% if you want it. Very junior.

Have you ever been to Dayton?

If you have spent any time in Dayton, that question should answer itself.

It's like a teenage slumber party in here.

If you're considering a AA WO'd carrier, here's all you need to know regarding flows.

- If you live in, or have a very easy commute to a ENY base, go there.
- If you live in, or have a very easy commute to a PDT base, go there.
- If you live in, or have a very easy commute to a PSA base, go there.

Trying to figure out, using current data, what's going to happen to flow time 5-8 years from now is a fool's errand.

Anything other than the above is just guys trying to wave their wiener around.

And if you want a referral at PSA, let me know. ;)

This ^^^ x 1,000

It's all going to be a wash in about 5 years anyway. Go where you have the best QOL.

Nothing in particular. It just isn't for everyone, including me. January-February are brutal. Really cold and no sun for weeks at a time. But then again, I think anything below 60* is basically cold so take my opinion for what it's worth. I came to PSA primarily for the CLT base and it's still the only base I have any interest in being at. TYS is okay too if mountains and a small town are your thing.