OK I'll play along. You're just an unvested, free thinking neutral observer who happens to think SKYW will take over the world and end up flying mainline sized planes on behalf of mainline airlines.

That still doesn't explain why you want it to happen so badly.

So, in your unvested, neutral observer fashion, how big of a plane do you think SKYW will fly for DL/UA in 5, 10, 20 years?

This should be interesting.

Everyone else has too much butter on their hands from the popcorn.

That wasn't a defense of your position. If anything, your lunacy is more entertaining. Okay, I'm going to slink back to my seat. And play....

I have to say... With so many new hires at the legacies coming directly from the regionals -- many of whom suffered through the lost decade -- I have trouble imagining how these guys would ever vote for scope relaxation. Because they know exactly what further scope relaxation will do: keep guys like them, friends of theirs, stuck at the regional level that much longer.

There really doesn't seem to be any appetite among legacy pilot groups to relax scope, either now or in the future. Sure, that may change, but I can't imagine any regional flying anything larger than 76-seaters in the foreseeable future, because for that to happen, attitudes among the legacy pilot groups would have to change significantly...

Bingo. DL management wanted more large RJs in the latest deal but had to pull that in order to get an agreement. That was the largest scope victory in decades. It will only continue to tighten as more and more RJ guys proliferate the ranks of the majors and legacies.

You really don't know or understand pilots. Pilots have been subjecting thei FAMILIES, to the folly of poverty wages, moves chasing seats, equipment, furloughs, and holidays/birthdays in hotels all in the quest for this job. If history is in indicator, scope is like anything else, it has a price, and your indentured servitude will continue as soon as the Price is Right. Pilots are predictable.

2nd year pay at most legacy carriers is around $130,000 a year. If pilots vote in scope relief for another 10%, that isn't because they got hosed by the lost decade, but because they are greedy...then they deserve career stagnation and job loss because of that greed. If a family of 4 can't live off of that without a second income, they are doing life wrong.

Guess you don't live in NYC

I think the 76 seat is going to be the limit. A weight increase I could see possible in the future.
If mainline pilots want a 10% $ bump for an extra 1500lb GTW
On a 76 seat rj ain't gonna happen

Pilot=Greedy, you are starting to see the light.

Then maybe you shouldn't live in NYC if you can't afford to live there. I know for sure that I'll never vote in scope relief because someone can't afford to live in Manhattan. You choose to live in the city instead of moving somewhere that is cheaper to live.

Good on ya, the unfortunate reality is that the senior guys run the MECs, until the Jr guy take over the song will remain the same. I have chatted with widebody CAs at length, and to a man they were completely unaware as to what was going on at the bottom of their list, much less at their regional code shares. If there is cash on the table, their only concern is to get as much as possible.

Where can I sign up for Contract Agreements 101, I'd like to take that class?

While your concern for mainline pilots preserving and defending their flying is admirable (that is what it is, isn't it?) your making fun of pilots thinking trends will always continue is somewhat ironic. You clearly think SKYW's trend of going from metros to 76 seat CRJ900's will continue to infinity and beyond!

Spoiler alert: it will not. Its been one heck of a ride for them, and they will maintain a place among low bidder ACMI lift providers in the 76 and under market. But that elevator has reached its top floor. Major pilot groups own their code and will not choose to sell more to facilitate what you want/predict to be SKYW's manifest destiny.

Since you have nothing vested in any of this supposedly, then that shouldn't bother you at all.

NYC pilots are some of the most scope hawkish pilots at DL. Not sure about UAL, but I'd bet their EWR/NYC base is similar.

Don't expect scope relief to come from NYC pilots trying to get a raise so they can afford to live there. Most commute and always will, and most of the locals know better than that anyway.

Then so does the 100 seater. And 150 seater. And 200 seater. So you think the past friends of metros to RJ's = unlimited plane size for SKYW. That would be incorrect.

Just so we are clear, what ARE you saying about scope?

OK, so you agree that there will never be 100 seaters at SKYW. Great, we're making massive progress!

So that means you think the absolute max for them is somewhere between 77 and 99 seats.

Of course there's that pesky "proof of the pudding" trend vector. remember, metros to RJ9's means always larger, right? But anyway...

Why do you think they will never exceed the 77-99 seat range, yet can't be held to the 50-76 seat range?

You also point to the historical trends, yet ignore the recent trends of multiple successive recent contracts slamming the door on plane size relief, as well as the historical pushing back against 100ish seat bach jets and 84 seat RJ9's trends that were the case in the past at every major airline but no longer are.

So the very trends you tout are, if anything, illustrating the opposite of the ever growing manifest destiny you're predicting.

And the 70s and 76s grew when there was nothing projected at mainlines under 150ish (except tiny fleets of 73-7's and 319's and even they were pushing 130). Now we have large and growing fleets in the 110 seat range, with more orders about to be placed. That will make it even harder to get this past the unionized pilot groups who own their codes. I just don't see them falling for it, in good times or in bad.

Mike and CCB
If anything now would be the best time for management to make a run at scope erosion. The pendulum has swung in the right direction for the industry. Legacies are making money hand over fist. Compensation is returning to 2000esque levels. They're hiring by the hundreds or thousands, which brings a (maybe false) sense of security to the junior guys. The seniority lists is saturated with very (longevity wise) senior guys at almost every level. We know said senior pilots will be retiring in droves in the coming years, so this would be the time for them to sellout the incoming guys on their last working contract.

Yet it has not happened. Managements one attempt, DAL TA15, failed. If anything the trend on outsourcing has reversed. Pilots are greedy. The rj experiment was voluntarily brought under the tent, but let's not forget it was exponentially amplified through bankruptcies and the associated duress. The majority of the incoming generation of legacy pilots suffered through the lost decade and rj experience. I doubt they'll quickly forget the consequences of selling job security for a few shekels during the next downturn.

Unlike MF, I hope the mainline keeps scope and pulls more back across the table. Unlike MF, I am a student of the human condition, and while there is a lot of noise here on the interwebs, the real decision making is done while the average JR pilot is out flying their line.
If it comes to making a small increase plenty of MECs have thrown the JR guys under the bus, over and over, and will do so again.
Good luck

Except we are multiple contracts by multiple airlines past the last time that happened. The DL MEC, which was already very well dug in against larger scope jets, just took an even more hawkish turn as well with recent elections.

If there was a time to get this done it was last year or maybe this year. Both got rejected incredibly hard at DL. One as part of the only (and resounding) TA rejection ever, and the other a groundswell rebellion that was nipped in the bud before it could even get put to paper in the redo.

Its never looked less likelier going forward than it does now. Yeah yeah I know, they'll offer us one trillion dollars for one additional seat and the trends will continue to infinity and beyond! :rolleyes:

Ok Buzz Lightyear

LOL I know right?

Yes some people still think all past trends will continue forever. All signs point to the RJ elevator ride stopping on the 76th floor though. Oh well, it was one heck of a run.

There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.

The current solution is to reduce regional flying and transfer it to the mainline. So far the airline that has taken the lead in that process seems to feel it's working great. So good in fact that they jumped in with both feet making a major and expensive aircraft purchase to continue that process for the next 4 years.
That is certainly great news for regional pilots! Not sure why you're not celebrating it. Seems strange.

While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.

The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.

Pilots will be eliminated in less than 20 years, this is absolutely assured. The next level of automation will require a technician to monitor the aircraft. Flying is soon to be a maintenance function, no longer a pilot one. There won't be drones, there just won't be pilots.

It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.

What will dictate this shift is the change in generation. Baby boomers (and older) would definitely not be "OK," with this. Millennials? It would happen tomorrow if it were possible.

So your saying all the current aircraft will be retired in the next 20 years and all the aircraft on order and new types scheduled to be built shortly will be canceled with a all new fleet of completely new airframes built and completed in 20 years. Correct?

That's certainly how it reads.