AirBear

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/...in-puget-sound

One body found, nine still missing including a child. DHC-3 Turbine Otter operated by Northwest Seaplanes.
It went down in Mutiny Bay off Whidbey Island, about 30 miles NW of downtown SEA. NTSB is sending a 7 person team in investigate.

AirBear

Controversial YouTuber Dan Gryder has put together a pretty good case for what happened in this accident. Apparently the plane went down at a steep angle. Dan looked up 3 previous reports of accidents & incidents on the same type of equipment and he believes it was a flight control failure just like the 3 previous:

https://youtu.be/J2MqTGx3Xq4

AirBear

Seems Dan Gryder was correct. The FAA has issued an emergency AD for the tail section on Otters. They claim it isn't related to this accident.

"The Federal Aviation Administration has issued an emergency airworthiness directive concerning Otter seaplanes. Released Tuesday, the directive warned of potential cracks and corrosion in a part called the elevator, a movable surface of the horizontal tail that controls the plane’s pitch."

https://apnews.com/article/seattle-w...8d041144328d1f

JamesNoBrakes

Probably not in the sense that they can tie anything from this accident to this AD definitively yet. Most likely what happened was they went and did inspections of operator's aircraft or operators themselves did inspections of critical parts either as routine or a special inspection (probably encouraged to do so by FAA, insurance, SMS programs, etc.) and reported SDR/MIS reports as required and then that prompted looking at a wider slice of data and at some point it looked like there was a systemic issue. It could be that this AD is what brought down this Otter...but it appears too early to tie it all together.

rickair7777

Juan Brown discussion of the AD...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfFy4Sjb5sY

rickair7777

Maybe not related to the AD...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaazTLFgFYk

Texasbound

Oh, what uninformed lives we would lead if it were not for YouTubers there to explain it all to us.

Imagine if we had actual trained journalists that could do this

JohnBurke

Speculation is popular, but unprofessional. We are in a business in which we don't guess. We know. Never the less, there are those who feel it their duty to guess on behalf of the rest.

There is an investigative process. It will play out. Guessing on the outcome is like a child playing twenty questions, who can't wait to reason or deduce...but throws up guesses to see what sticks. Is it that tree? Is it the sky? Is it that car? We don't guess at takeoff distance, fuel loads, weather, runway distance, or any number of metrics. We prepare and we arrive knowing, not guessing.

I don't know that a reporter can guess any better than a pilot who is trained and knowledgeable of the functions and operations of a flight, but if the pilot speaks in ignorance, the reporter won't do any better. We can certainly wait to read the report, and then we can discuss it, far better informed.

rickair7777

Juan Brown is a legacy pilot, with USAF and GA experience. Unlike certain other 'tubers I can think of, he doesn't jump to conclusions. I find him more informative than 99.99% of professional journalists

JohnBurke

Juan Brown tends to talk authoritatively, often with a great deal of speculation, frequently on subjects he doesn't understand, and without facts in evidence. He speculates.

You may remember this conversation: Turbine DC-3 Ooopsie

That he may sound plausible or that his bad information doesn't get caught, or that others swallow it hook, line, and sinker doesn't change the fact.