I agree...sort of.

The stock market is a barometer of investor emotion. Right now, the fed has propped it up through stimulus by printing money. So yeah, it isn't a real leading indicator of the economy like it traditionally is.

Once there is a vaccine or the virus subsides, there will be a recovery. Until then, we are just kidding ourselves. Smart money right now is on fed policy keeping things in "ground idle" until that time comes. If the economy is allowed to go into free fall like it did in the 2008 recession, the recovery will be long and painful. Take politics out of it completely, 9/10 economists agree...the carpet bombing stimulus strategy is the smartest and most compassionate policy. We as a country totally failed on that in the last downturn.

If the virus rages on past Winter with no end in sight, there will be a market crash and economic calamity unlike any in history. That being said, I am staying in the market just like I did after the March crash. At this point, it's that or buy gold and horde supplies.

The stock market is just a graph of how happy and optimistic richish people are.

I try to avoid the use of absolutes (will, every, always, never, etc). If my crystal ball were that clear I wouldn't be flying planes. First off, I wouldn't assume the industry will remain in its current status. Hundreds of billions spent on therapeutics and, more importantly, concurrent vaccine development/production have multiple candidates showing great promise (several already in Phase III trials). Big pharma doesn't inject 30,000 people without having a very high confidence level that a vaccine is safe and effective. Other coronaviruses have died off via herd immunity before the vaccine even entered trials; COVID could do the same.

The above, combined with the end of highly contentious election year politics (ugh) could conceivably lead a turnaround early to mid 2021. How much and how fast is anyone's guess, but even as a devout pessimist, I'm still confident things will look a whole lot different this time next year.

Reputation aside, it would be 2022 before GK would start recouping the costs of a furlough (~1 year). Yesterday was the first time since COVID that TSA travel stats broke the 800K mark (832k).

Finally, to say "every passenger airline" would assume some airlines won't profit from the misfortune/demise of others. It's happened before.

Anyone's guess at this point.

I listen to and read what is probably an unseemly amount of financial and economic analysis and commentary from many sources. The above seems to be the consensus view of the experts. Ya, I know...experts. What do they know? We’re pilots.

Ha, “experts”. We (the public) have not gotten any straight information regarding the “virus”. I don’t know anyone, or know anyone who knows anyone who died from the virus. I understand people are dying, but in the beginning we were led to believe this was a killer, 1 in 10 may die. They did not know, and just ran with a worst case scenario. People are all out of faith in the “experts”. People want to go to Disney, employees want there “business trip” to Vegas, they want to go on a vacation, etc.

My comments on the interview. What was GK suppose to say? We don’t need the money? Ah, we are good to go, sorry for the first inconvenience. Of course he want to get a piece of the pie, the competition is. Look at what SWA does, not what is said. Generous VSP and EXTO programs, leveraging to get cash in hand. They are accumulating a war chest to pounce on the remnants or be Johnny on the spot in new markets. SWA is nimble, creative, and can steer the ship on a dime if need be.

I believe they will steer the ship well...I just don’t know how big the ship will be.

Stock market means nothing, economy is in shambles. It should be in the low teens to represent the current situation. If you have any other questions for me please ask.

Yeah, me too!

I have a few good friends that we are open about our 401k savings. One who really understands this stuff being a finance guy.

None of us have heard of anything reasonable to explain the market. Except hang on! The next year or so is going to be a bumpy ride. But America is always a good, long term investment.

As short and sweet as it is, what you said is pretty accurate. The "richish" are the people who control yours and my retirements. They are not inventors, or innovators so much as they are good at predicting the psychology of the market based on many different factors.

So with DL announcing 1,941 furloughs, what comes next for us?
DL needs 9400 pilots next summer compared to 15k a year ago. A 38% difference.