I figured it was a long drawn out marketing scheme. I'm not a big believer in "flows," but I think from what I've researched, Mesa can get me to the hour level I need (say within 3-4 years) so I can apply to another Major/Legacy/Cargo airline right at the peak retirement time.

OK, I'm going to slightly derail this thread....but I've never been able to see a real OMG peak retirement time. When you look at the cumulative graphs, it looks like every pilot everywhere will get hired at United or the other legacies. But if you look at it year to year, it doesn't get much worse than now. And it's not like there isn't new pilots being produced every year. When I look at CFI's, they have been increasing every year for a while now....meaning to me the pipeline is being filled.

I'd love to see a time when every pilot has an easy time getting on with whoever they want, I just don't see it. Please, prove me wrong

So, because I'm a nerd, I did a spreadsheet.

That said, it was not meant to be a scientific deep dive into every possible scenario, but just takes the basic information available online and looks at it holistically.

That said, it does not take into account things like all the new pilots coming into the pipeline. However, neither does it capture all the pilots who leave the industry apart from "aging out," which I am sure, is also significant.

2024-2025 to me are the "peak years" for pilots aging out of the Majors. In general, the entire 2020s look good for moving up to the Majors across the board just solely based on pilots "aging out."

We also don’t know how many Mil guys are retiring every year and the airlines will always hire them over us. If you had that number you could really narrow down our odds better. Also for the guys saying I’m going to Mesa to fly a bunch, in my opinion your hrs past 5k don’t matter much. You see a bunch of 4K getting on at Delta.

I don't know/have the total MIL #s.

I will say that before RTAG, the numbers were minimal- say <100 a year. Since RTAG, it's gone up significantly. If I were to venture a guess, barring any major conflict/war that would freeze UQRs and Retirements, I'd say the number is between 100-200 a year for Army. Couldn't say for the Air Force, Navy, or Marines.

Exactly it’s unknown what ever that number is plus flows subtract it from the number of retirements and that’s the number of spots left for Regional corporate ACMI and ULCC pilots looking to move up. I’m sure management has those numbers.

It’s not flow. It IS an opportunity that you would otherwise not have.

What good is an opportunity if it's mostly smoke and mirrors?

I can’t help you. You’ll never make it and this is why.